How to Beat the SP (Start Price) | Find Value in Tennis Markets

Tennis Tips UK analyze hundreds of markets each day to identify value for subscribers. All advisory is selected based on extensive player research, performance data and probability linked to +EV (Expected Value). Factors such as conditions at a specific event like court speed and temperature can have a significant impact on the result. Even altitude in some cases as it changes the way in which the ball travels. In professional tennis the margins are often very fine meaning these areas are worth analysis.

The end product of our trading teams research is a percentage probability for each market (i.e Player A to win the match). This is compared to the market odds at exchanges and bookmakers to identify value. In other words the odds available must fail to accurately reflect the probability of that outcome and offer an edge in the investors favor.

The key term is ‘investor’. Gambling is something that should be done for fun. The only way to make an income that can be sustained is to back value markets that will yield a positive return when averages and variance even out over time. Trying to beat the SP (Starting Price) is a sensible area to start with. This is most frequently associated with horse racing and is a marketing gimmick used by bookmakers to encourage bets. However in this context we are simply refering to the odds available across bookmakers and exchanges when the match first starts. Market movements are rarely dramatic in tennis but often strong indicators.

SP (Start Price) e.g Player A is available at odds 5/2 (3.50) the day before a match is scheduled to start. The punter backs this market at those odds. When the match is about to start the market has moved in your favour. The odds available are now just 6/4 (2.50). These markets would most likely yield a profit long term as most market movement in tennis is driven by educated betting.