Finding Value in Tennis Betting Markets | Bookmaker Trader Insight

Tennis Tips UK consider many factors when finding value in tennis markets. This includes player form, surface attainment data and potential fatigue (for example if a player has a high total court time in recent days or had to travel a large distance between events). These elements have a tangible effect on the match outcome and if bookmaker/exchange odds fail to reflect all of these factors then smart punters can exploit this value.

Bookmaker’s employ individuals or even teams responsible for setting the odds for sporting events each day. These individuals are known as ‘traders’ and are employed for their detailed knowledge of a specific sport such as tennis, football or horse racing. This is explained and shown in practice at a large UK based bookmaker in the BBC documentary – Britain at the Bookies

Remember that bookmaker companies offering sportsbook services are paying these individuals moderate to large annual salaries for their work. Pricing markets correctly is essential in terms of ensuring that they are profitable. Mistakes can be costly – especially at large bookmakers where thousands of customers are placing bets on a frequent basis. With the introduction of odds comparison websites virtually anyone can quickly see which bookmakers are offering the best odds for a specific match, player or event.  In this article our team will look at how to find value in tennis betting.

Setting Event Odds: The Process for Traders

It’s important to understand that bookmaker traders are not gamblers. Their job is ensure that, regardless of a match outcome, a modest profit is guaranteed. Contrary to popular belief – most bookmakers don’t want individual, informed customers placing large bets. Small monetary amounts but with a high bet volume is far more valuable. Traders must set odds that accurately reflect the probability of each player winning and also factor in the bookmaker profit margin.

Example Match: Player A vs Player B

At first glance looking at the odds below for this imaginary match, it may seem bookmakers are all offering roughly the same odds. An amateur bettor would fail to read into this information anymore than surface value. However let’s take a look at the bookmakers below. As a general rule Marathon Bet have smaller profit margins but all others are very similar. So the fact that Sporting Bet are offering the best odds for Player A at 1/3 (1.33) means their traders want to attract money on that selection. They know that thousands of members around the world use odds comparison sites and will bet with the bookmaker offering the best odds – loyalty is rare nowadays.

On a basic level – why would a bookmaker want to attract money on a particular player or team? Most likely because their traders think they are likely to lose or at the very least are poor value considering their probability of winning.

However in this example William Hill are offering better odds than all other bookmakers despite having similar profit margins – so their traders disagree and believe Player A is likely to prevail and Player B presents bad value from a punters point of view. Clearly it’s not always that ‘black and white’ but this example illustrates the concept.

finding tennis betting value

How to find Tennis Betting Value in Markets | Based on Trader Odds at Bookmakers


Bookmaker Price Boosts, Enhanced Odds and Multiples

Another key area to look at regularly is bookmaker promotions. For example if you browse the tennis section of most bookmakers there will be ‘bet boosts’ for specific wagers. For example ‘Novak Djokovic 2-0 Set Betting’ could be enhanced to odds of evens (2.00) when at most other bookmakers it is around 4/5 (1.80). This may seem like a minor difference but it is a clear indication that bookmaker traders want money on that selection. So in the example above it may show that backing Djokovic’s opponent to win at least a set is good value (in other words the traders at the bookmaker have that opinion)

Enhanced Multiple Example:

Bookmaker Enhanced Offer Promotion

Bookmaker Enhanced Offer Promotion | In this example it may indicate that set handicap wagers on the opponents of Murray, Wawrinka and Tsonga present good value.


Additional Factors for Finding Tennis Betting Value:

Tennis Tips UK consider many factors when analyzing markets. Using the methods above can be a good place to start for beginners as it essentially gives an insight into the minds of expert traders specifically employed by bookmakers for their knowledge of a sport. It’s important not to simply follow the aforementioned techniques blindly – additional factors such as player form, performance on specific surfaces (i.e indoor hard court, clay, grass etc.) all need to be considered. Apply for VIP Club Membership if you would like to benefit from the daily insight and tip(s) from our team.