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The Australian Open women’s final is the highlight today. Simona Halep and Caroline Wozniacki will battle it out for their first grand slam title. The mens final is scheduled for Sunday the team will take a look today at any projected significant pre-match market movements that could present an opportunity over the coming hours and give updates via social media.
About Tennis Trading Preview’s from Tennis Tips UK
In this article a small trading team based in the UK provide their analysis and recommendations for the ATP, WTA & Challenger action scheduled for the day ahead. Normally the focus will be on a single match for the main trade but there will occasionally be a higher volume of matches if they present solid trading options. The team trade tennis markets full time and use it as their primary income source. To be clear this is for individuals trading markets using exchanges (i.e BETDAQ, Smarkets, Matchbook & Betfair) with the goal of profiting from market movements pre-match and/or trading specific events or periods in the match. This differs from traditional sports betting in that the final outcome is almost always irelevant. It’s the market movements and odds fluctuations that present the opportunity traders desire. For those new to this concept the ‘Tennis Trading Guide‘ is highly recommended as it gives an overview of basic strategies, the tools and resources needed to trade succesfully and how to gain an edge. Always start with low risk / liability trades when learning how to trade markets or when experimenting with new techniques.
Focus Match: Halep v Wozniacki
The following match preview was provided by the Tennis Tips UK trading team. Odds, statistics and external data was correct as of the original time of publication. Always verify details directly using exchanges prior to trading.
Synopsis: As of the publication time (03:05AM) Halep is trading at 1.73 in the match winner market which implies a win probability of 57.80%. Her opponent, Wozniacki, has 2.36 available to be matched with relatively high liquidity. In terms of pre-match odds movements – the price for Halep would be expected to shorten slightly towards the morning as the market sides with the favorite but this move may be marginal. Little opportunity for pre-match profit.
Key Trading Points: First Game (Break of Serve), First Set Winner (Lay Match Winner Market), High Total Games
Recommended Market Entry & Exit Points: Both players have relatively weak serve metrics and stellar ratings when returning looking at their performances this week and longer term. This makes the first game an interesting time to enter the market. Not only is there the weak service attainment but also the fact it takes time to find rythmn on serve and with it being a grand slam final could mean a nervous opening despite both players experience. The returner will have an edge if this does materialise.
Depending on who serves first – laying that player in the match winner market could prove profitable for a quick exit either after a few points or if/once a break occurs for those looking for a higher variance trade. The match winner price would shorten significantly if either player scored a break in the opening game. Perhaps more than it should considering the high number of projected breaks during the match.
If the server does hold in the opening game then the trade should be closed for a small loss (as the price is unlikely to drift considerably). The next opportunity will be after the first set result is confirmed.
Both Wozniacki and Halep have strong W1/L2 metrics. This refers to their probability of losing the first set after winning the first. This makes ‘laying’ the first set winner at the start of the second appealing. If they can hold serve and/or gain a break the trade should be closed for a profit.
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