Alcaraz vs Djokovic Betting Pick – Wimbledon Final Prediction for Sunday 14th July 2024

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This final will give a sense of déjà vu to keen tennis fans as last years final featured the same two players. From a betting perspective an educated Alcaraz vs Djokovic pick is often derived from more recent form and surface attainment rather than looking at long term head to head records – so it’s more of a curiosity than a useful input to our data modelling.

Both Alcaraz and Djokovic has endured erratic 2024 seasons by their own (admittedly high) standards. The Serbian in particular has fallen to multiple unexpected defeats culminating in the extreme shock of his loss to Machac in Geneva. However since then his form has returned to a more expected level and his Wimbledon run to this final has been exemplary.

Alcaraz vs Djokovic Betting Pick

Djokovic vs Alcaraz Prediction – 14/07/2024

• Bookmakers think Djokovic has a 43.50% win probability
• This is a repeat of the 2023 Wimbledon final that Alcaraz won in five sets
• Initial money flowing into the market has backed the Spaniard but it will not be until much closer to the scheduled start time that sharp money will enter when limits and liquidity increase.

Free Tennis Tips UK Pick…

Novak Djokovic (Match Winner) @ 2.32 – 1 unit stake

Reasoning: Internal Tennis Tips UK modelling suggests Djokovic has a win probability in excess of 52% which means the quoted price offers a considerable margin of value. Our traders feel too much emphasis has been allocated to the Serbians shock losses this year and that given his record at Wimbledon specifically combined with his performances in the past week – his current market price is unjustified.