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A Murray vs M Berrettini Prediction – Match Preview
Table of Contents
| When? | Monday, 16 Jan 2023, 00:00 |
| Where? | Melbourne Park, Australian Open 2023 (Court confirmed the day prior to play) |
| Most Likely Outcome? | M Berrettini to win – 73.5% probability based on sharp bookmaker prices. |
| Prediction: | A Murray still has the fighting spirit and resilience that has been the hallmark of his illustrious career. However over a potential five sets, his younger opponent is likely to have the physical edge |
| Potential Value Bets: | Prices above 4.00 for A Murray / Prices above 1.40 for M Berrettini |
| Where’s the Money? | Decent support for A Murray illustrated by shortening odds at most bookmakers and exchanges. Average opening was around 3.90-4.00 now down to approximately 3.50 |
Match Snapshot – 30 Second Read
If Murray is going to keep his (admittedly improbable) dream of adding another grand slam to his trophy cabinet alive – he’s going to have to defy odds from the off with a highly challenging first round opponent in the form of Italian Berretttini whom is currently ranked as the 14th best player in the world. Let’s explore in more detail with the A Murray vs M Berrettini Prediction from Tennis Tips UK.
Head to Head (H2H)
M Berrettini has dominated their previous encounters with 3 wins from 4 matches. This 75% success rate was most recently enhanced by his win in the third round of the 2022 US Open. A Murray last beat him back in 2019 – over 4 years ago. Since their most recent encounter Murray’s overall profile trend has correlated negatively whereas Berrettini has improved significantly over recent years as one would expect for someone in his age range.
Surface, Court Speed & Past Performance
These factors can drastically alter the most probable outcomes. Fines margins apply for most men’s professional tennis and the conditions at a specific event are highly relevant. Both players have a good attainment history at the Australian Open – however it’s worth highlighting that Murray’s achievements came during the prime period of his career many years ago now.
Andy Murray has reached the final 5 times in Melbourne but never won the slam.
Source: Andy Murray – Wikipedia
The heat will only further the importance of endurance and it’s difficult to conclude anything other than this favours Berrettini significantly given his younger age and the injury issues suffered by Murray.
Outdoor hard courts play relatively fast which favours the big servers. The expected high temperatures further increase this. Whilst both players possess power Murray is defence driven which will further increase this R1 challenge and goes a long way to explaining his large price in terms of odds.
Takeaway – Conclusions
It’s difficult to see past M Berrettini for this one. Murray has been plagued by injury issues and there are just a few too many factors (as previously highlighted) in favour of the Italian to overlook even when such an appealing price is available for the multiple grand slam champion.
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Subscription service for tennis bettors to receive advisory direct to their inbox. This specifies the match, which bet and the recommended stake. Following these recommended picks has yielded a return in excess of 20% as of early 2024.
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Club P/L Report: Sunday 21st July
$1000 advised backing Halys to beat Berrettini at odds of 4.30 on Betfair Exchange. Outcome was a straight sets win.
-$1000 and failed to beat closing odds #ATPGstaad
Full P/L Report: https://tennis-tips.co.uk/profit-loss-reports/2024/07/21/sunday-21st-july-club-p-l-report/
Club P/L Report: Friday 19th July
$1000 advised backing Martinez to beat Cerundolo at odds of 3.60 on Betfair Exchange. Outcome was a three set win.
+$3470 after commission deduction but failed to beat closing odds #HamburgOpen
Full P/L Report: https://tennis-tips.co.uk/profit-loss-reports/2024/07/19/friday-19th-july-club-p-l-report/
Club P/L Report: Thursday 18 July
$1000 advised backing Boyer to beat Tung-Lin Wu at odds of 2.06 on Betfair Exchange. Outcome was a three set win for the later.
-$1000 but beat closing odds #ChallengerGranby
Full P/L Report: https://tennis-tips.co.uk/tennis-betting-tips/2024/07/18/thursday-18th-july-club-report/
Club P/L Report: Wednesday 17 July
$1000 advised backing Tirante to beat Rublev at odds of 5.80 on Betfair Exchange. Outcome was a three set win.
+$5560 but failed to beat closing odds #SwedishOpen
Full History & Subscription details: http://tennis-tips.co.uk/profit-history/
Club P/L Report: Tuesday 16 July
+4990 and beat closing odds #ChallengerTour
Subscription details: https://tennis-tips.co.uk/profit-history/
Club P/L Report: Tuesday 16th July 2024
-$1000 and failed to beat closing odds #ATPHamburg
Free Pick for Tuesday 16th July
ATP Hamburg R1
A Fils vs J Munar
J Munar (Match Winner)
1 unit @ 2.50 via Betfair Exchange
Full reasoning: https://tennis-tips.co.uk/free-tips/2024/07/15/free-pick-for-tuesday-16th-july-fils-vs-munar-prediction-for-atp-hamburg-r1-betting-tips/
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