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Thiem vs Paul Tips – ATP Vienna Prediction
25/10/2022 – The Austrian Dominic Thiem has challenged and beaten legends of the game over the years but recently its been far from plain sailing for the clay court specialist. A spat of persistent injury issues have led to a significant ranking deterioration and incredible losing streak that lasted for over a year. Lets take a deep dive into the probability with our Thiem vs Paul Tips at the 2022 Erste Bank Open.
Tommy Paul has been fortunate enough to avoid these lows but equally has never reached the heights of his opponent either even at the best of times. His record on this surface (indoor hard court) is respectable. The faster speed should favour him over Thiem although youngster Alcaraz claimed it was much slower than expected following his first round win over at the Swiss Indoors. This follows a recent trends of players stating that the once famously fast indoor courts and now playing differently.
Alcaraz says that this Basel court is slow. Did they slow it down after Federer's 10 titles and 15 finals?
This match essentially boils down to what level Thiem is currently at. Clearly he would dominate Paul at his best but despite a recent uptrend in performances he’s clearly not there yet.
Sharp punters (i.e those at Pinnacle) have backed the Austrian in from an average of 1.80 to 1.60 which is a significant movement. This is typically a strong indicator for match outcome although shortening prices often go too far as everyone and their dog piles on leading to opportunities on the other side of the line.
Dominic Thiem has a solid record at this event specifically even winning back in 2019.
D Thiem vs T Paul Odds – Snapshot of betting activity across multiple bookmakers. The price at Pinnacle has shortened by approximately 10% versus the opening price. Could this suggest value?
Odds correct as of publication (Tuesday 25/10/2022)
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