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D Thiem vs D Medvedev Tips for Thursday 27th October
27/10/2022 – The Austrian Dominic Thiem scraped through his previous round encounter showing great mental resilience whilst equally affirming he’s still significantly below his best. Daniil Medvedev is a major step up in terms of opponent quality and his defensive abilities are going to make things tough. Lets take a deep dive into the probability as thats what really counts with our Thiem vs Medvedev Match Preview for the 2022 Erste Bank Open.
Popular Article (10 Minutes) – Betting Exchanges: Why do Bookmakers still dominate the market?
10 Thiem vs Medvedev Match Facts… from Tennis Tips UK
- (1) Dominic Thiem has improved dramatically over recent months but he’s still off his top level. Even at his best Danill Medvedev, particularly considering this court speed, would be a significant challenge.
- (2) Sharp punters (i.e those at low vig bookmakers) like Dominic Thiem at a price of 3/1 (4.00) or just below based on price data and line movements. Exchange prices are currently just above this level as of publication. By the same methodology Daniil Medvedev seems fair value at around 3/10 (1.30).
- (3) Dominic Thiem has a solid record at this event specifically even winning back in 2019.
(4) Dominic Thiem leads the head to head 3-2 overall. Its 2-2 on hard courts. The relevance of this is debatable given the fact both players are at differing levels now.
- (5) Dominic Thiem has a 72% win rate on indoor hard courts so far in 2022.
- (6) Daniil Medvedev has a 66% win rate on indoor hard courts this year. Longer term his performance on the surface is exceptional however (13-3 record in 2021 for example)
- (7) Physically Daniil Medvedev had a much easier time of it in the previous round. His total court in Vienna is much less than Dominic Thiem. This is less prevalent over three sets but still a relevant factor to consider when analysing the overall picture.
- (8) Daniil Medvedev has a play style (defensive) that will make things challenging for Dominic Thiem. Balls will be coming back that wouldn’t be from most other opponents.
- (9) Daniil Medvedev is currently ranked as the world number three. By contrast Dominic Thiem has fallen to way down at 133 following persistent injury issues over recent times.
- (10) Markets have priced the set handicap (-1.5/+1.5 line) at odds suggesting a roughly 50/50 probability. This is where value can be found at a specific price and where we will focus for members today.
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| Match | Selection | Stake |
|---|---|---|
| Thiem vs Medvedev (ATP Vienna) | 🔐 LOCKED > | 100 units |
What is the purpose of club membership?
Most members use the advisory to generate profits via bookmaker and/or exchange accounts. For someone staking £100 per match this has yielded thousands in profit even once the annual membership fee is deducted.
Will bookmakers limit my account(s)?
Most likely, yes. Club bets have a proven track record of value (+ EV) and bookmakers are likely to notice this. Short term you’ll be fine but longer term we suggest using betting exchanges or ‘winners welcome’ bookmakers or brokers. That’s why we always quote and record odds from Betfair Exchange for members as that illustrates profits for those who are limited.
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Your membership will be confirmed with a personal welcome email. You’ll get 12 months access from a single payment and there is no auto renewal – we’ll simply ask if you wish to continue after the year has elapsed. You should expect an average of two emails per week detailing the advised selection, match, tournament and odds. Simply login to your betting account and place a wager on the selected market. We only use standard match winner bets, often referred to as the moneyline, so coverage is extensive at virtually all betting portals. Have any questions? Please visit the contact us page. Average response time 24h.
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What bankroll is required?
We suggest £10,000 or more ideally although smaller can work. Most members choose to follow our advice of staking 1% per match. This means it automatically adjusts and scales as the total grows and compounds returns. In the above example; the member would have yielded over £3,000 profit but had to pay the membership fee leaving them with a net profit in excess of £2200. Some members have vastly exceeded this by staking higher amounts but please remember to have a long term focus and ensure capacity for successive losses.
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How is profit tracked?
For transparency we operate a public spreadsheet. This shows all key metrics such as units profit, ROI, yield and strike rate. We even monitor the Avg Diff CO % for those statisticians amongst you. In a nutshell this measures the implied value by comparing the advised odds with the sharp closing line. 2% is deducted from all recorded profit figures to simulate exchange commission. Just to clarify bets are only added to the spreadsheet post result confirmation to retain exclusivity of access to paid club members.
For winning bets our team also publish profit reports which feature the original email sent to members for additional tracking and verification purposes. This also includes a rating for that specific prediction which gives an insight into how our strategy is optimised over time.
Who picks the bets for club members?
Tennis Tips UK have grown into a small team over the years. Founded way back in 2013 by an odds compiler at a leading EU bookmaker. Since then joined by a quant and business manager. Each one of us lives and breathes tennis but we like to let our results speak for themselves rather than make outlandish personal claims.
Why don’t you bet on your own picks if they are so good?
We do, frequently. The issue surrounds liquidity and limitations. Club members have access to a wide range of liquidity from global sportsbooks and exchanges. We, as individuals, are far more restricted. Typically though we still stake an average of £10k per week on our selections but unfortunately virtually every bookmaker has long since banned us. We should take it a compliment really as a limitation is an endorsement of the profitability of your bets from an often billion pound institution.
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The fee is set at a level which allows us to fill membership places. If you are a prospective first time club member enter the promo code ‘TTUK10’ during checkout to reduce the cost. Please note this is a one time discount and not available for returning members.
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