D Thiem vs D Medvedev Tips for Thursday 27th October
27/10/2022 – The Austrian Dominic Thiem scraped through his previous round encounter showing great mental resilience whilst equally affirming he’s still significantly below his best. Daniil Medvedev is a major step up in terms of opponent quality and his defensive abilities are going to make things tough. Lets take a deep dive into the probability as thats what really counts with our Thiem vs Medvedev Match Preview for the 2022 Erste Bank Open.
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10 Thiem vs Medvedev Match Facts… from Tennis Tips UK
- (1) Dominic Thiem has improved dramatically over recent months but he’s still off his top level. Even at his best Danill Medvedev, particularly considering this court speed, would be a significant challenge.
- (2) Sharp punters (i.e those at low vig bookmakers) like Dominic Thiem at a price of 3/1 (4.00) or just below based on price data and line movements. Exchange prices are currently just above this level as of publication. By the same methodology Daniil Medvedev seems fair value at around 3/10 (1.30).
- (3) Dominic Thiem has a solid record at this event specifically even winning back in 2019.
(4) Dominic Thiem leads the head to head 3-2 overall. Its 2-2 on hard courts. The relevance of this is debatable given the fact both players are at differing levels now.
- (5) Dominic Thiem has a 72% win rate on indoor hard courts so far in 2022.
- (6) Daniil Medvedev has a 66% win rate on indoor hard courts this year. Longer term his performance on the surface is exceptional however (13-3 record in 2021 for example)
- (7) Physically Daniil Medvedev had a much easier time of it in the previous round. His total court in Vienna is much less than Dominic Thiem. This is less prevalent over three sets but still a relevant factor to consider when analysing the overall picture.
- (8) Daniil Medvedev has a play style (defensive) that will make things challenging for Dominic Thiem. Balls will be coming back that wouldn’t be from most other opponents.
- (9) Daniil Medvedev is currently ranked as the world number three. By contrast Dominic Thiem has fallen to way down at 133 following persistent injury issues over recent times.
- (10) Markets have priced the set handicap (-1.5/+1.5 line) at odds suggesting a roughly 50/50 probability. This is where value can be found at a specific price and where we will focus for members today.
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