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A Murray vs M Berrettini Prediction – Match Preview
Table of Contents
| When? | Monday, 16 Jan 2023, 00:00 |
| Where? | Melbourne Park, Australian Open 2023 (Court confirmed the day prior to play) |
| Most Likely Outcome? | M Berrettini to win – 73.5% probability based on sharp bookmaker prices. |
| Prediction: | A Murray still has the fighting spirit and resilience that has been the hallmark of his illustrious career. However over a potential five sets, his younger opponent is likely to have the physical edge |
| Potential Value Bets: | Prices above 4.00 for A Murray / Prices above 1.40 for M Berrettini |
| Where’s the Money? | Decent support for A Murray illustrated by shortening odds at most bookmakers and exchanges. Average opening was around 3.90-4.00 now down to approximately 3.50 |
Match Snapshot – 30 Second Read
If Murray is going to keep his (admittedly improbable) dream of adding another grand slam to his trophy cabinet alive – he’s going to have to defy odds from the off with a highly challenging first round opponent in the form of Italian Berretttini whom is currently ranked as the 14th best player in the world. Let’s explore in more detail with the A Murray vs M Berrettini Prediction from Tennis Tips UK.
Head to Head (H2H)
M Berrettini has dominated their previous encounters with 3 wins from 4 matches. This 75% success rate was most recently enhanced by his win in the third round of the 2022 US Open. A Murray last beat him back in 2019 – over 4 years ago. Since their most recent encounter Murray’s overall profile trend has correlated negatively whereas Berrettini has improved significantly over recent years as one would expect for someone in his age range.
Surface, Court Speed & Past Performance
These factors can drastically alter the most probable outcomes. Fines margins apply for most men’s professional tennis and the conditions at a specific event are highly relevant. Both players have a good attainment history at the Australian Open – however it’s worth highlighting that Murray’s achievements came during the prime period of his career many years ago now.
Andy Murray has reached the final 5 times in Melbourne but never won the slam.
Source: Andy Murray – Wikipedia
The heat will only further the importance of endurance and it’s difficult to conclude anything other than this favours Berrettini significantly given his younger age and the injury issues suffered by Murray.
Outdoor hard courts play relatively fast which favours the big servers. The expected high temperatures further increase this. Whilst both players possess power Murray is defence driven which will further increase this R1 challenge and goes a long way to explaining his large price in terms of odds.
Takeaway – Conclusions
It’s difficult to see past M Berrettini for this one. Murray has been plagued by injury issues and there are just a few too many factors (as previously highlighted) in favour of the Italian to overlook even when such an appealing price is available for the multiple grand slam champion.
TENNIS TIPS UK Club Membership – How it Works
Follow @TennisTipsUKSynopsis: An email service where members receive regular betting picks direct to their inbox. This clearly states the match, specific bet and advised stake. There is a ‘best bet’ which is the highest value selection our team has found across all markets. This is exclusively available through the club membership. Club members should expect to receive 1-2 bets per week on average.
Who picks the advised bets?Tennis Tips UK have a team of analysts built over the past decade. Each has shown a proficiency in beating ATP, Challenger or Grand Slam markets consistently. See an example of the email format members receive below. To make the service more practical to follow we send out picks twelve hours before the scheduled start time on average so it should be feasible to follow regardless of client timezone.
Odds sourced from Pinnacle or Bet365. Match winner (moneyline) markets used so practical to follow with any bookmaker. Those with access to an exchange account are likely to comfortably exceed the recorded profit figures even after commission is deducted so this is highly recommended.How much profit have the picks made overall?
As of late 2025; a £100 bettor has enjoyed profits in excess of £10,000 assuming they backed the quoted price. Please note the image below is updated once annually – see the link below for the most up to date performance figures.
Full tracking is available publicly via a third party verification platform.How do you profit from tennis betting?There is no single ‘one size fits all’ approach. Tennis Tips UK have been fine tuning the selection process since way back in 2013. For a comprehensive insight into our thesis try exploring our tennis betting research articles.
I’m looking for a more hands-on approach, what do you recommend?Some punters prefer to actively select or trade their own markets. The same thesis as before regarding compounding can still apply in this situation but crucially you’ll need to be able to find and back value bets yourself. There are advanced tools that let you identify +EV bets, see where sharp money is betting and apply complex filters to find markets that meet your criteria.
What about responsible gambling?All forms of sports betting, including club picks, need to follow strict responsible gambling principles. The crucial one – never bet with funds that you can’t afford to lose. This means the assigned bankroll needs to be surplus to requirements. Adopting a long term, investment style approach as described previously will put you on the right path but this never replaces the ten golden rules of responsible gambling.
Why join the club?It offers an investment approach to sports betting that allows disciplined members the ability to gradually grow their bankroll over time. Another key benefit of staking a fixed percentage of bankroll per match is that it scales and crucially compounds returns. Here is an explanation of the concept. This means over time your bankroll can grow exponentially and has resulted in multiple long term club members building pots in excess of £1M. Just remember at this level new challenges present themselves such as trying to get such large stakes accepted or matched but there are solutions out there and of course there is also the option to quit and retire.
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