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A Murray vs M Berrettini Prediction – Match Preview
Melbourne Park, Australian Open 2023 (Court confirmed the day prior to play)
Most Likely Outcome?
M Berrettini to win – 73.5% probability based on sharp bookmaker prices.
Prediction:
A Murray still has the fighting spirit and resilience that has been the hallmark of his illustrious career. However over a potential five sets, his younger opponent is likely to have the physical edge
Potential Value Bets:
Prices above 4.00 for A Murray / Prices above 1.40 for M Berrettini
Where’s the Money?
Decent support for A Murray illustrated by shortening odds at most bookmakers and exchanges. Average opening was around 3.90-4.00 now down to approximately 3.50
A Murray continues to defy expectations as he reaches the later stages of his career, however his Italian opponent M Berrettini is a firm favourite.
Match Snapshot – 30 Second Read
If Murray is going to keep his (admittedly improbable) dream of adding another grand slam to his trophy cabinet alive – he’s going to have to defy odds from the off with a highly challenging first round opponent in the form of Italian Berretttini whom is currently ranked as the 14th best player in the world. Let’s explore in more detail with the A Murray vs M Berrettini Prediction from Tennis Tips UK.
Andy Murray has just a 26% of reaching the second round based on the available odds (correct as of publication)
Head to Head (H2H)
M Berrettini has dominated their previous encounters with 3 wins from 4 matches. This 75% success rate was most recently enhanced by his win in the third round of the 2022 US Open. A Murray last beat him back in 2019 – over 4 years ago. Since their most recent encounter Murray’s overall profile trend has correlated negatively whereas Berrettini has improved significantly over recent years as one would expect for someone in his age range.
Surface, Court Speed & Past Performance
These factors can drastically alter the most probable outcomes. Fines margins apply for most men’s professional tennis and the conditions at a specific event are highly relevant. Both players have a good attainment history at the Australian Open – however it’s worth highlighting that Murray’s achievements came during the prime period of his career many years ago now.
Andy Murray has reached the final 5 times in Melbourne but never won the slam.
The heat will only further the importance of endurance and it’s difficult to conclude anything other than this favours Berrettini significantly given his younger age and the injury issues suffered by Murray.
Outdoor hard courts play relatively fast which favours the big servers. The expected high temperatures further increase this. Whilst both players possess power Murray is defence driven which will further increase this R1 challenge and goes a long way to explaining his large price in terms of odds.
Takeaway – Conclusions
It’s difficult to see past M Berrettini for this one. Murray has been plagued by injury issues and there are just a few too many factors (as previously highlighted) in favour of the Italian to overlook even when such an appealing price is available for the multiple grand slam champion.
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