This first round encounter scheduled for Wednesday 19/10/2022 features the ever entertaining Fabio Fognini against rising star Hugo Grenier at the ‘Tennis Napoli Cup’. Let’s delve into the probability and see if there are any discrepancies with what the market currently offers in terms of odds with our Fognini vs Grenier Tips.
Sharp bookmakers opened the line for Hugo Grenier at around 2.05-2.07 but this soon shortened to less than evens following a flurry of backing from punters. While this can be a good indicator its worth remembering limits are kept low at this stage and most sharp bettors wait until nearer the scheduled start time when there is a full information profile available along with higher limits. Tools used for these calculations – Odds to Probability Converter – No Vig Fair Odds Generator. These are free and valuable resources.
The bookmaker offering the highest overall payout rate is 10Bet at 97.50% which is relatively poor. Exchanges have decent liquidity already and this should improve further as the start time approaches. Customers seem to be matching bets at around 2.00 for Hugo Grenier at this stage although inevitably the price will swing by a reasonable margin as those with larger bankrolls pile in later.
Recommended Resource: Why Bet on Tennis? / Fognini vs Grenier Odds (Low Margin)
How to Identify Value: Fognini vs Grenier Tips
Tennis Tips UK use a combination of exchange data, sharp bookmaker prices and internal modelling to find value across ATP, WTA & Challenger matches. A synopsis of findings are presented below.
Often following the money can give far greater insight than looking at form metrics. Profitability from tennis betting is about one thing – price (odds). Focus on obtaining the best possible odds that beat those available at the match start time. Achieving this leads to a long term edge.
| Match | Selection | Stake |
|---|---|---|
| F Fognini vs H Grenier (ATP Naples) | 🔐 LOCKED > | 100 units |
