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Home » Free Tips | Tennis Tips UK » Djokovic vs Sinner Pick – Tennis Betting Preview – Australian Open Semi-Final 2024

Data Driven Insight – Djokovic vs Sinner Pick | Friday 26 Jan 2024, 03:30

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This match is a fascinating prospect for tennis fans around the world. Italian Jannik Sinner has definitely impressed the most so far at the 2024 iteration of the Australian Open. He’s dominated all challengers so far although clearly this will be his biggest challenge as the world number one stands in his way of a Grand Slam final. Early indications is that there is significant backing for Sinner with 70% of predictions backing him on certain portals as of publication. Discounting possibly the finest every player would be brave (and foolish) in equal measure and bookmakers have priced Djokovic as a favourite but not by the usual margin for his matches which is a reflection of the sublime form and attainment of his opponent.

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The Argument for… Djokovic – The Power of History

His record speaks for itself – there is no other player who has illustrated such consistency over a period of time as considerable as Djokovic. The important factor here is that he frequently finds a path to victory even when the stars fail to align. His mental resolve is well documented and has been the deciding factor in many brutal five set grand slam encounters over his illustrious career.

djokovic record at Australian Open graphic by Tennis Tips UK

Novak Djokovic has a stellar record at the Australian Open. In fact he won the event outright consecutively for many years now (excluding the year he didn’t compete)

So surely it’s just a formality he will beat Jannik Sinner? Well, not so quick with that conclusion. It’s easy to put too much emphasise on long term statistics. Recent form metrics are far more relevant to predicting a match outcome. This is strong for both Djokovic and Sinner.

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The Argument for… Sinner – Stellar Form Metrics

Jannik Sinner has breezed through the Australian Open draw so far despite facing some high quality opponents. He hasn’t dropped a set in five matches and has low total court time as a consequence. This can be a factor worth considering in the later stages of a Grand Slam as physicality and fatigue can play a crucial role. He has a 7-0 record so in 2024 so if Novak Djokovic does win it will be his first defeat.

Sinner infographic showing percentage chance of beating Djokovic calculated from odds by Tennis Tips UK

The match winner odds available (2.50-3.00) as of publication suggest the chance of Jannik Sinner progressing to the Australian Open 2024 final is roughly 35% which means the Novak Djokovic win is more likely by a modest margin.

The question is though what is the true probability. The Pinnacle closing line will almost certainly get this correct but there is a lot of movement probable from now until then.

Our Main Pick – Reserved for Premium Subscribers

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Get access to this tip and other premium selections when you subscribe today. You’ll be able to access all selections via this page and also through an email notification. The focus here is purely on value. There is a price (odds) at which every selection offers value based on what it suggests versus true outcome probability. When this value point is below current bookmaker odds we advise this to members.

  • On average there will be 2-3 bets advised per week. This will be either a match winner, asian handicap or over/under total games market that’s accessible via all major bookmakers.

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Djokovic vs Sinner Pick – Tennis Betting FAQ

Will Djokovic beat Sinner?

As calculated previously; 65% is the estimated probability of a win for the Serbian.

Can Sinner win despite his odds?

The price range of the Italian (2.50-3.00) has performed well over large data sets. It’s a price that bookmakers set when they expect a player to have genuine chance of winning but they expect lots of money on the favourite because they are a ‘big name’ player and recognisable to recreational sports bettors who perhaps don’t normally bet on tennis but make an exception for Grand Slam events.

What is your main Zverev vs Alcaraz pick?

Tennis Tips UK reserve their best value selections for premium subscribers – this is where our analysts go from general speculation about form and past attainment and instead focus on data modelling, probability and the point at which odds present value. This is how to profit long term from tennis betting. The verified results for this paid service illustrate this in practice.

So that concludes our preview of the Australian Open 2024 semi-final featuring world number one Novak Djokovic and the in-form young star Jannik Sinner. As always we remind those wanting to take tennis betting seriously to focus on data, analysis and the minimum odds at which a selection presents value. Don’t put too much weight on statistics and match facts – that’s just for fun

Robert, Tennis Tips UK Analyst – Ask me a question (I’ll respond within 24 hours)
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TENNIS TIPS UK CLUB MEMBERSHIP – How it Works

Synopsis: An email service where members receive regular betting picks direct to their inbox. This clearly states the match, specific bet and advised stake. There is no subscription so simply stay as long as you want. The number of members is capped so sometimes a waiting list is activated. All advisory of this type is exclusive to paid members.

Who picks the advised bets?

Tennis Tips UK have a team of analysts built over the past decade. Each has shown a proficiency in beating ATP, Challenger or Grand Slam markets consistently. See an example of the email format members receive below.

How much profit have the picks made overall?

Full tracking is available publicly via a third party verification platform. However there are multiple club members attaining four figure profit sums each month simply by following the advised bets using their bookmaker and exchange accounts.

As of late 2024; a £100 bettor has enjoyed profits in excess of £4230 assuming they backed the quoted price using an exchange with 5% commission deducted. In reality most club members pay a lower rate and as such have a higher profit attainment.

How can I get access?

Club membership is currently open to applications. Subscribers can expect to receive picks most days that the primary tours are active. These will be match winner or games handicap bets priced at 2.00 or above covering ATP, Challenger or Grand Slam matches.

How do you profit from tennis betting?

There is no single ‘one size fits all’ approach. Tennis Tips UK have been fine tuning the selection process since way back in 2013. For a comprehensive insight into our thesis try exploring our tennis betting research articles.

Are there any third party tipsters you recommend?

There is a tipster network that has received positive comments from most of our members. It’s by no means perfect. There are many tipsters there you should avoid but some offering genuine value. Most rely on bookmaker prices that will limit you quickly though so try and instead focus on the services that quote exchange prices.

Looking to join the club? – 8/10 Places Reserved

Tennis Tips UK provide multiple picks per week specialising in the ATP tour. These are reserved exclusively for club members who receive an email notification containing the picks. The results history of all this advisory is recorded here. Staking £100 per match has yielded a total profit of £4730 as of August 2024. This figure factors in a 5% exchange commission deduction.

Full access to all picks is reserved to a maximum of 10 club members. There is an option to purchase 1 month membership with no recurring payment or subscription element. Many payment methods are accepted including PayPal. This link will only remain active when places are available so if this is inactive please contact our team instead and request to be added to the waiting list.

Club membership is designed for those looking to profit from tennis markets over the long term. Having access to exchange and bookmakers without account limits is preferable. Bankroll management and discipline are both essential. Please do not consider the club if looking for short term gains and stick to the principles of responsible gambling regardless.


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