Tennis Tips UK · Research & reports
Shevchenko vs Alcaraz Betting Tips – ATP Madrid R2 Prediction
Published April 25, 2024
Shevchenko vs Alcaraz Prediction
Multiple former champion Carlos Alcaraz faces a potentially challenging second round encounter. He will face world number 59 Alexander Shevchenko in the second round of the Madrid Open. Bookmakers think this will be a formality given the odds but could the underdog offer value for the shrewd punter?
The Tennis Tips UK team will answer this question and provide more useful insight with these Shevchenko vs Alcaraz betting tips. Looking for more ATP tennis insight? Here is the full resource centre.
The Favourite – Alcaraz ML
The probability of the Spaniard world number three winning this match is around 95%. So far, so good. However then problem is bookmakers are acutely aware of this and are offering odds of just 1.05-1.08 on average.
So although this bet will win the majority of the time – trying to profit long term is virtually impossible as the single freak loss outcome will do so much damage. For that reason Alcaraz ML is best avoided.
The Smart Money – Asian Handicap
Sharp bookmakers show significant backing for Shevchenko in the Asian games handicap market. Specifically the +5.5 offering has seen backing from around 2.60 down to 2.20 as of publication. It’s also worth considering the positive set handicap to reduce volatility (versus the straight up underdog money line)
The Longshot – Shevchenko ML
Backing large price match winner markets indiscriminatingly has historically yielded awful results. These markets often the highest bookmaker margins and so without informed selection are worth avoiding. Fortunately if you like the chances of the underdog there are smarter options like the aforementioned handicap betting markets.
FAQ: ATP Madrid Open Betting
The most probable outcome by far is a win or the Spaniard. Most likely in straight sets. It’s important to make the distinction between the most likely match result and which betting markets potentially offer value. There needs to be a disconnect between the implied probability derived from odds and the true probability to create a +EV opportunity. See the tennis betting guide for more information.
Club membership gives access to 1-2 predictions per week that are exclusively available via that service. These are the markets that offer the best margin of value based on extensive research and data driven insight.
Full information is available for this service on the join now page.
Assess any tipster using its complete record, including losses, the prices you can obtain, losing runs, membership costs and cancellation terms. Past results do not guarantee future profit.
Yes the team publish free insight on a daily basis. It’s possible to subscribe via the homepage to receive this direct to your email inbox should you wish.
See the wider picture.
Read the research alongside the complete results record. See every win and loss and how our proprietary data model and human review select picks.
To interpret prices alongside outcomes, read our research on closing line value. It explains what a market benchmark can show and where it can mislead.
18+ · Betting involves risk · Past results cannot guarantee future profit.
Payment & membership details
Credit and debit cards are accepted through Stripe. PayPal, Apple Pay and Link are also offered where available. Stripe displays the payment options available for your device and country at checkout.
£49.99/month is the base membership price. Stripe may show a local-currency price; check the first payment and renewal amount before subscribing.
All picks and member emails are delivered in English. International members are welcome where betting is legal.
You manage your membership through Stripe and can cancel whenever you choose, without contacting us for approval. Cancellation and refunds are separate.
Member reviews: TipsterCheck ↗ Trustpilot ↗
Maximum 10 paid members. No bookmaker affiliate links. Historical results are before fees and do not guarantee future returns.
Explore tennis betting value and profitability, units and bankroll management, or the tennis picks and results archive.
FREE TENNIS BETTING PICK
One upcoming selection. Free.
Subscribe free and confirm your email to qualify for one upcoming pre-match tennis betting pick. Our team will send it manually when the next club selection is available.
You’ll also receive published club results and an exclusive discount code by email after confirmation, if you decide to become a full paid club member. Membership is optional.
- Tournament
- Locked until sent by email
- Match
- Locked until sent by email
- Advised bet
- Locked until sent by email
Tap or click to see how to unlock your free pick.
Check your inbox to confirm. Missing the email? Check Spam, Junk or Promotions and add the sender to your contacts. One free pick per eligible new confirmed subscriber. 18+. Betting involves risk. Unsubscribe at any time.Privacy policy.
