Shevchenko vs Alcaraz Prediction
Multiple former champion Carlos Alcaraz faces a potentially challenging second round encounter. He will face world number 59 Alexander Shevchenko in the second round of the Madrid Open. Bookmakers think this will be a formality given the odds but could the underdog offer value for the shrewd punter?
The Tennis Tips UK team will answer this question and provide more useful insight with these Shevchenko vs Alcaraz betting tips. Looking for more ATP tennis insight? Here is the full resource centre.
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The Favourite – Alcaraz ML
The probability of the Spaniard world number three winning this match is around 95%. So far, so good. However then problem is bookmakers are acutely aware of this and are offering odds of just 1.05-1.08 on average.
So although this bet will win the majority of the time – trying to profit long term is virtually impossible as the single freak loss outcome will do so much damage. For that reason Alcaraz ML is best avoided.
The Smart Money – Asian Handicap
Sharp bookmakers show significant backing for Shevchenko in the Asian games handicap market. Specifically the +5.5 offering has seen backing from around 2.60 down to 2.20 as of publication. It’s also worth considering the positive set handicap to reduce volatility (versus the straight up underdog money line)
The Longshot – Shevchenko ML
Backing large price match winner markets indiscriminatingly has historically yielded awful results. These markets often the highest bookmaker margins and so without informed selection are worth avoiding. Fortunately if you like the chances of the underdog there are smarter options like the aforementioned handicap betting markets.
FAQ: ATP Madrid Open Betting
The most probable outcome by far is a win or the Spaniard. Most likely in straight sets. It’s important to make the distinction between the most likely match result and which betting markets potentially offer value. There needs to be a disconnect between the implied probability derived from odds and the true probability to create a +EV opportunity. See the tennis betting guide for more information.
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Tennis Tips UK frequently gather feedback on tipster services from thousands of subscribers. To be honest most of it focuses on the ever growing list of services to avoid but occasionally there are some that stand out for the right reasons like these tipsters.
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