This first round encounter – Brouwer vs Blanchet – is an interesting prospect. Brouwer has never progressed from the first round at the Challenger Lugano event despite trying for the last two consecutive years. He lost the only previous encounter with Blanchet in straight sets and top it off is ranked marginally lower. So why is he priced at just 1.30-1.40 at most bookmakers?
Let’s delve deep into the data to see if we can answer that question. As always this article has been published because this match features our analysts ‘Bet of the Day’ (BOTD). The selection itself is reserved for subscribers who have already received it direct to their email inbox as of 10:20 on 04/03/2024.
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Gijs Brouwer has a 71.50% chance of winning this match in either two or three sets based on sharp bookmaker odds (correct as of publication and subject to change)
This calculation is derived from odds within the 1.30-1.40 range for the match winner market (ML)
The question is if these odds offer value? In the case they do our team would normally look at the asian handicap market to get a price closer to EVENS (2.00).
Ugo Blanchet has a 28.50% chance of winning this match in either two or three sets based on converting sharp bookmaker and exchange data into implied probability.
This thesis is reached from average sharp bookmaker prices of 3.00-3.40 for the 25 year old Frenchman.
At this price he’s certainly more appealing than his opponent in the match winner (ML) market but as always its only value that matters.
After spending over a decade trying to gain an edge in the world of tennis betting we have learnt a thing or two. Perhaps more pertinently we have also met a person or two. Today we are proud to have built a team of individuals who have each proven sustained profitability quoting markets and odds that are easily accessible through a large range of bookmakers and exchanges. To access their bets you must be added to the private mailing list. This will distribute all selections direct to your email inbox. This focuses on ATP, Grand Slam and Challenger matches. Members simply need to have a bookmaker account to replicate results.
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Outside of the illegal practise of match fixing there are no certainties in tennis betting. In other words every outcome has a probability of occurring. In some cases that may be tiny or a virtual certainty but the point is if you are able to bet on it then nothing is certain.
The objective is to back odds that offer value. That is to say the implied probability of the outcome (i.e Player A to win) from the odds obtained is much lower than the true chance of that occurring.
Let’s take an example. If you were offered odds of 2/1 (3.00) to correctly call a coin clip – i.e heads or tales – would you take it? Hopefully you answered yes as there is major value. True or fair odds would be just EVENS (2.00). However does that mean you will definitely win? No as it’s still just 50/50. You will lose just as often as you will win. The point is that the payout for the wins is significantly more than it should be.
So over a large sample size you will profit. It’s the exact same with tennis betting and that’s how you can profit long term for example through the BOTD subscription service.
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