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Rocha vs Llamas Ruiz Free Tips – Challenger Murcia Open

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The main focus today is on Rocha vs Llamas Ruiz as a glance at the odds indicates there could be value afoot. Let’s take a deeper dive to validate this. This match is scheduled for Saturday 23rd March 2024 at the Challenger Murcia Open event. Following his impressive win over veteran Gasquet it’s Llamas Ruiz that has been graded as a favourite but is this justified?

Challenger Murcia Open – Saturday

Rocha vs Llamas Ruiz (FREE PICK)

Pablo Llamas Ruiz looks appealing given the fact internal Tennis Tips UK modelling suggests he has a roughly 78% of winning this Challenger Murcia encounter.

Projected fair odds based on this thesis price him at just 1.30-1.35 so a value margin around 30% which is relatively rare.

However it is the set handicap market that offers a value margin in excess of this and so this qualifies as the Tennis Tips UK free pick for Saturday.

Note: Pablo Llamas Ruiz 2-0 (Set Betting) equates to the advised handicap so can be used in its place.

Rocha vs Llamas Ruiz Free Tips betslip for Challenger Murcia Open 2024
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Bet of the Day (LOCKED)

The highest value market found by our analysts today is from the ATP Miami Open 2024 schedule.

There is a clear discrepancy between the implied probability (derived from sharp bookmaker odds once limits are raised) and the true outcome probability.

That’s why this selection has been graded as the ‘Bet of the Day’ (BOTD) and is available to subscribers only.

BOTD Tennis Tips UK is locked (ATP Miami 2024 tips)
Profit (units)ROI (%)Strike Rate (%)
Synopsis of overall results history for the BOTD delivered via email. Updated: 22/03/24 – View Spreadsheet

Tennis Tips UK – FAQ

Have Tennis Tips UK historically profited from their advised bets?

The site was founded back in 2013 and has delivered profit each year since. There have been many changes over the years but today there is a single subscription service for the best value bets. The team also publish some analysis for free like this article covering Sinner vs Alcaraz and Paul vs Medvedev. Tennis Tips UK offer a subscription service which tracks all it’s results publicly.

What is the difference between free bets and those requiring a subscription?

For most days there will be a free selection available to everyone. This offers value at the quoted price and is expected to deliver profit long term. However the market that offers the highest margin of value is graded as the ‘Bet of the Day’ (BOTD). This requires a subscription to access.

Is there a key to profiting from tennis betting?

The main ingredient to turn from a recreational punter to a successful bettor is discipline. It’s essential to adopt an investment style approach. Risk a small percentage of total bankroll per match and focus on getting bets placed/matched at a value price.

Have a brief look at the graphic references below. It illustrates the point that over a small number of bets luck is the key even with value bets (due to variance). However if you stay consistent long term and keep backing bets methodically the chances of losing collapse to near zero. It’s a virtual certainty you’ll be in profit as the odds work in your favour.

Never back a single pick NEEDING it to win. Of course you will WANT it to win but these are two very different things. Risk a small amount per match as anything can happen over a few sets. Have faith that value bets will deliver long term and manage bankroll responsibly.

To show Probability of overall loss from tennis betting graphic decreases over time