Nakashima v Zverev Tips | US Open R16 Betting Pick for Sunday

Nakashima v Zverev Tips | US Open R16 Betting Pick for Sunday

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The focus for Sunday is the US open R16 encounter Nakashima v Zverev. Who will prevail and make it to the next stage? The main story this week at flushing meadows has been the major upsets but do we think that will be the case again with our Nakashima v Zverev tips?

Nakashima v Zverev Tips for Sun 01 Sep

Will Nakashima pull off the upset against the more reliable Zverev?

The most likely outcome is a win for the German Zverev but in terms of where value lies that’s a very different question. It’s the thesis of Tennis Tips UK analysts that Nakashima should be priced closer to 2.75 indicating a win probability of around 36%. Any odds obtainable above this level will offer value and are worth backing.

Zverev is a big server and solid from the baseline. On paper he should progress in this encounter but his opponent Nakashima is likely to present a stubborn challenge. US hard courts are where he’s mainly progressed through the rankings so far in career including a home town title.

Our prediction for this match is a tight encounter where the American challenges more than the market pricing might suggest. Whether he will edge the encounter overall is certainly dubious but worth backing at the value level (2.75+) or above.

When backing underdogs we often receive messages such as ‘it’s obvious Zverev will win!’ and then when he does further criticism of the advisory. When picks like as suggested it’s not that we think the most likely outcome isn’t a win for the favourite it’s simply a case of seeking value.

In this case we all know the most likely winner is Zverev. The odds suggest the probability of this is around 77%. We think this should be lower than consequently there is value in the opposing market. This value based approach allows profit over the long term through tennis betting markets.

Zverev vs Nakashima Free Tips…

B Nakashima (Match Winner) @ 3.60 – 1 unit stake

Reasoning: Internal modelling indicates Nakashima win probability in excess of 36.40% meaning there is a significant margin of value in the quoted price even after commission deduction.