Sousa vs Gill Free Pick – Tennis Betting Tips
Table of Contents
- Sousa vs Gill Free Pick – Tennis Betting Tips
- Challenger Girona Open – 27/03/2024
- Tennis Tips UK – FAQ
The main focus today is the Challenger Murcia Open event and more specifically the first round encounter between Sousa vs Gill. The Brit has been priced a moderate favourite as of publication but is this accurate? As always Tennis Tips UK focus on the implied probability vs actual outcome chance to evaluate if a market offers value and consequently has the potential for a positive yield long term.
Challenger Girona Open – 27/03/2024
Sousa vs Gill (FREE PICK)
Felix Gill looks appealing given the fact internal Tennis Tips UK modelling suggests he has a roughly 75% of winning this Challenger Murcia encounter.
Projected fair odds based on this thesis price him at just 1.35-1.40 so a value margin around 20% which is relatively rare.
However this price is a little short so let’s explore the negative handicap options to increase the potential payout.
FREE PICK: Felix Gill -1.5 (Set Handicap) @ 2.46
Looking for FREE TENNIS TIPS direct to your inbox?
Join over five thousand subscribers who benefit from expert insight for upcoming matches direct to their email inbox. Don’t worry you can unsubscribe with a single click if you change your mind. Your details will never be shared with third parties or used for marketing purposes.
Bet of the Day (LOCKED)
Did you know? Subscribers backing BOTD selections with £100 per match have generated more than £770 profit over the past few months
The highest value market found by our analysts today is from the ATP Miami Open 2024 schedule.
There is a clear discrepancy between the implied probability (derived from sharp bookmaker odds once limits are raised) and the true outcome probability.
That’s why this selection has been graded as the ‘Bet of the Day’ (BOTD) and is available to subscribers only.
| Profit (units) | ROI (%) | Strike Rate (%) |
| +7.70 | 119.20 | 42.50 |
Tennis Tips UK – FAQ
The site was founded back in 2013 and has delivered profit each year since. There have been many changes over the years but today there is a single subscription service for the best value bets. The team also publish some analysis for free like this article covering Sousa vs Gill. Tennis Tips UK offer a subscription service which tracks all it’s results publicly.
For most days there will be a free selection available to everyone. This offers value at the quoted price and is expected to deliver profit long term. However the market that offers the highest margin of value is graded as the ‘Bet of the Day’ (BOTD). This requires a subscription to access.
The main ingredient to turn from a recreational punter to a successful bettor is discipline. It’s essential to adopt an investment style approach. Risk a small percentage of total bankroll per match and focus on getting bets placed/matched at a value price.
Have a brief look at the graphic references below. It illustrates the point that over a small number of bets luck is the key even with value bets (due to variance). However if you stay consistent long term and keep backing bets methodically the chances of losing collapse to near zero. It’s a virtual certainty you’ll be in profit as the odds work in your favour.
Never back a single pick NEEDING it to win. Of course you will WANT it to win but these are two very different things. Risk a small amount per match as anything can happen over a few sets. Have faith that value bets will deliver long term and manage bankroll responsibly. 
Joao Sousa has enjoyed a highly successful career so when looking at his accolades it’s hard to see why a rising star youngster would be priced a favourite. However if there is one thing Tennis Tips UK’s analysts have learnt from over a decade of tennis betting – it’s that short term form metrics are a far more reliable indicator of match winner prediction.
Try BettingGods.com as they have proven a solid hub for reputable tipsters. Prospective subscribers can view full results and alter the stake to match their bankroll. Remember to exercise caution with all new tipsters and perhaps ‘paper trade’ initially.
TENNIS TIPS UK CLUB MEMBERSHIP – How it Works
Follow @TennisTipsUKSynopsis: An email service where members receive regular betting picks direct to their inbox. This clearly states the match, specific bet and advised stake. There is no subscription so simply stay as long as you want. The number of members is capped so sometimes a waiting list is activated. All advisory of this type is exclusive to paid members.
Who picks the advised bets?Tennis Tips UK have a team of analysts built over the past decade. Each has shown a proficiency in beating ATP, Challenger or Grand Slam markets consistently. See an example of the email format members receive below.
How much profit have the picks made overall?Full tracking is available publicly via a third party verification platform. However there are multiple club members attaining four figure profit sums each month simply by following the advised bets using their bookmaker and exchange accounts.
As of late 2024; a £100 bettor has enjoyed profits in excess of £4230 assuming they backed the quoted price using an exchange with 5% commission deducted. In reality most club members pay a lower rate and as such have a higher profit attainment.How can I get access?Club membership is currently open to applications. Subscribers can expect to receive picks most days that the primary tours are active. These will be match winner or games handicap bets priced at 2.00 or above covering ATP, Challenger or Grand Slam matches.
How do you profit from tennis betting?There is no single ‘one size fits all’ approach. Tennis Tips UK have been fine tuning the selection process since way back in 2013. For a comprehensive insight into our thesis try exploring our tennis betting research articles.
Are there any third party tipsters you recommend?There is a tipster network that has received positive comments from most of our members. It’s by no means perfect. There are many tipsters there you should avoid but some offering genuine value. Most rely on bookmaker prices that will limit you quickly though so try and instead focus on the services that quote exchange prices.
Looking to join the club? – 8/10 Places Reserved
Tennis Tips UK provide multiple picks per week specialising in the ATP tour. These are reserved exclusively for club members who receive an email notification containing the picks. The results history of all this advisory is recorded here. Staking £100 per match has yielded a total profit of £4730 as of August 2024. This figure factors in a 5% exchange commission deduction.
Full access to all picks is reserved to a maximum of 10 club members. There is an option to purchase 1 month membership with no recurring payment or subscription element. Many payment methods are accepted including PayPal. This link will only remain active when places are available so if this is inactive please contact our team instead and request to be added to the waiting list.
Club membership is designed for those looking to profit from tennis markets over the long term. Having access to exchange and bookmakers without account limits is preferable. Bankroll management and discipline are both essential. Please do not consider the club if looking for short term gains and stick to the principles of responsible gambling regardless.
