| Profit (units) | Yield (%) | Strike Rate (%) | Average Odds (Decimal) | Illustrative Return (£100 staked per pick) |
| +37.10 | 13.60 | 33.00 | 4.31 | £3710 from backing every selection as of June 2025 |
- ✅ WON @ 3.35 (+235) – D Evans – ATP Eastbourne
£100 stake backing Evans to beat Paul returned £230.30 profit… Read more: ✅ WON @ 3.35 (+235) – D Evans – ATP Eastbourne - ✅ WON @ 9.20 (+820) – A Bublik – ATP Halle
£100 stake backing Bublik to beat Sinner returned £803.60 profit… Read more: ✅ WON @ 9.20 (+820) – A Bublik – ATP Halle - ✅ WON @ 2.34 – Z Bergs – ATP Hertongenbosch
£100 stake backing Bergs to beat Opelka returned £127.30 profit… Read more: ✅ WON @ 2.34 – Z Bergs – ATP Hertongenbosch
Sousa vs Gill Free Pick – Tennis Betting Tips
Table of Contents
- Sousa vs Gill Free Pick – Tennis Betting Tips
- Challenger Girona Open – 27/03/2024
- Tennis Tips UK – FAQ
The main focus today is the Challenger Murcia Open event and more specifically the first round encounter between Sousa vs Gill. The Brit has been priced a moderate favourite as of publication but is this accurate? As always Tennis Tips UK focus on the implied probability vs actual outcome chance to evaluate if a market offers value and consequently has the potential for a positive yield long term.
Challenger Girona Open – 27/03/2024
Sousa vs Gill (FREE PICK)
Felix Gill looks appealing given the fact internal Tennis Tips UK modelling suggests he has a roughly 75% of winning this Challenger Murcia encounter.
Projected fair odds based on this thesis price him at just 1.35-1.40 so a value margin around 20% which is relatively rare.
However this price is a little short so let’s explore the negative handicap options to increase the potential payout.
FREE PICK: Felix Gill -1.5 (Set Handicap) @ 2.46
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Bet of the Day (LOCKED)
Did you know? Subscribers backing BOTD selections with £100 per match have generated more than £770 profit over the past few months
The highest value market found by our analysts today is from the ATP Miami Open 2024 schedule.
There is a clear discrepancy between the implied probability (derived from sharp bookmaker odds once limits are raised) and the true outcome probability.
That’s why this selection has been graded as the ‘Bet of the Day’ (BOTD) and is available to subscribers only.
| Profit (units) | ROI (%) | Strike Rate (%) |
| +7.70 | 119.20 | 42.50 |
Tennis Tips UK – FAQ
The site was founded back in 2013 and has delivered profit each year since. There have been many changes over the years but today there is a single subscription service for the best value bets. The team also publish some analysis for free like this article covering Sousa vs Gill. Tennis Tips UK offer a subscription service which tracks all it’s results publicly.
For most days there will be a free selection available to everyone. This offers value at the quoted price and is expected to deliver profit long term. However the market that offers the highest margin of value is graded as the ‘Bet of the Day’ (BOTD). This requires a subscription to access.
The main ingredient to turn from a recreational punter to a successful bettor is discipline. It’s essential to adopt an investment style approach. Risk a small percentage of total bankroll per match and focus on getting bets placed/matched at a value price.
Have a brief look at the graphic references below. It illustrates the point that over a small number of bets luck is the key even with value bets (due to variance). However if you stay consistent long term and keep backing bets methodically the chances of losing collapse to near zero. It’s a virtual certainty you’ll be in profit as the odds work in your favour.
Never back a single pick NEEDING it to win. Of course you will WANT it to win but these are two very different things. Risk a small amount per match as anything can happen over a few sets. Have faith that value bets will deliver long term and manage bankroll responsibly. 
Joao Sousa has enjoyed a highly successful career so when looking at his accolades it’s hard to see why a rising star youngster would be priced a favourite. However if there is one thing Tennis Tips UK’s analysts have learnt from over a decade of tennis betting – it’s that short term form metrics are a far more reliable indicator of match winner prediction.
Try BettingGods.com as they have proven a solid hub for reputable tipsters. Prospective subscribers can view full results and alter the stake to match their bankroll. Remember to exercise caution with all new tipsters and perhaps ‘paper trade’ initially.
What is the purpose of club membership?
Most members use the advisory to generate profits via bookmaker and/or exchange accounts. For someone staking £100 per match this has yielded thousands in profit even once the annual membership fee is deducted.
Will bookmakers limit my account(s)?
Most likely, yes. Club bets have a proven track record of value (+ EV) and bookmakers are likely to notice this. Short term you’ll be fine but longer term we suggest using betting exchanges or ‘winners welcome’ bookmakers or brokers. That’s why we always quote and record odds from Betfair Exchange for members as that illustrates profits for those who are limited.
How will it work after joining?
Your membership will be confirmed with a personal welcome email. You’ll get 12 months access from a single payment and there is no auto renewal – we’ll simply ask if you wish to continue after the year has elapsed. You should expect an average of two emails per week detailing the advised selection, match, tournament and odds. Simply login to your betting account and place a wager on the selected market. We only use standard match winner bets, often referred to as the moneyline, so coverage is extensive at virtually all betting portals. Have any questions? Please visit the contact us page. Average response time 24h.
Is club membership limited?
Yes, we allow a maximum of ten members to have an active annual membership at any one time. This is to preserve value and market liquidity. Essentially ensuring it’s practical to obtain the advised odds without them disappearing too quickly.
What bankroll is required?
We suggest £10,000 or more ideally although smaller can work. Most members choose to follow our advice of staking 1% per match. This means it automatically adjusts and scales as the total grows and compounds returns. In the above example; the member would have yielded over £3,000 profit but had to pay the membership fee leaving them with a net profit in excess of £2200. Some members have vastly exceeded this by staking higher amounts but please remember to have a long term focus and ensure capacity for successive losses.
What type of bets should I expect?
Always match winner bets covering men’s professional tennis. This includes ATP events, Challenger and Grand Slams. We specialise in high odds underdogs which have yielded the most considerable profits in extensive back testing. Selections with odds of 10/1 (11.00) are not uncommon. We deliver advisory emails at a consistent time with a minimum of six hours before the scheduled start time to ensure plenty of time to get bets placed.
Who is the club open to?
Everyone with a decent bankroll and a long term outlook. We have members from around the world betting in many different currencies and jurisdictions. Tennis Tips UK are based in the United Kingdom, hence the name, but the club is truly global.
How is profit tracked?
For transparency we operate a public spreadsheet. This shows all key metrics such as units profit, ROI, yield and strike rate. We even monitor the Avg Diff CO % for those statisticians amongst you. In a nutshell this measures the implied value by comparing the advised odds with the sharp closing line. 2% is deducted from all recorded profit figures to simulate exchange commission. Just to clarify bets are only added to the spreadsheet post result confirmation to retain exclusivity of access to paid club members.
For winning bets our team also publish profit reports which feature the original email sent to members for additional tracking and verification purposes. This also includes a rating for that specific prediction which gives an insight into how our strategy is optimised over time.
Who picks the bets for club members?
Tennis Tips UK have grown into a small team over the years. Founded way back in 2013 by an odds compiler at a leading EU bookmaker. Since then joined by a quant and business manager. Each one of us lives and breathes tennis but we like to let our results speak for themselves rather than make outlandish personal claims.
Why don’t you bet on your own picks if they are so good?
We do, frequently. The issue surrounds liquidity and limitations. Club members have access to a wide range of liquidity from global sportsbooks and exchanges. We, as individuals, are far more restricted. Typically though we still stake an average of £10k per week on our selections but unfortunately virtually every bookmaker has long since banned us. We should take it a compliment really as a limitation is an endorsement of the profitability of your bets from an often billion pound institution.
Is there a way to reduce the cost of membership?
The fee is set at a level which allows us to fill membership places. If you are a prospective first time club member enter the promo code ‘TTUK10’ during checkout to reduce the cost. Please note this is a one time discount and not available for returning members.
Since 2013 we have actively built, deployed, maintained and optimised a tennis betting data model. This serves as the foundation of our team’s analysis. We don’t rely on it entirely but it gives a reliable indication as to where the price for a specific player should be. Significant discrepancies between this and actual live market prices across bookmakers and exchanges often flag our attention for further research.
No. When a specific bet is advised our team are stating there is value in the quoted odds. In other words the true probability of that outcome is higher than the implied figure derived from market odds. Long term backing these bets consistently will deliver considerable profit as our results illustrate. However members should be prepared to lose successive bets frequently as the club focuses on significant underdogs.
This is one of the key reasons that the club is only accessible via annual memberships. It was very frustrating to see some join for just a few weeks, lose bets then leave. This benefits nobody. New members should adopt a disciplined bankroll management strategy. The most common is simply staking 1% total bankroll per match. If a handful of consecutive losses would cause terminal bankroll damage then stakes need reducing.
This was a real email sent to club members. It may look a little intimidating initially but the selection in bold is the only essential piece of information to profit. We operate a simple staking strategy of 1 unit = 1% total bankroll. Each email consists of the tournament, match, selection, advised stake, minimum odds and projected win probability. This format will always be followed for consistency. 
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