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Sousa vs Gill Free Pick – Tennis Betting Tips

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The main focus today is the Challenger Murcia Open event and more specifically the first round encounter between Sousa vs Gill. The Brit has been priced a moderate favourite as of publication but is this accurate? As always Tennis Tips UK focus on the implied probability vs actual outcome chance to evaluate if a market offers value and consequently has the potential for a positive yield long term.

Challenger Girona Open – 27/03/2024

Sousa vs Gill (FREE PICK)

Felix Gill looks appealing given the fact internal Tennis Tips UK modelling suggests he has a roughly 75% of winning this Challenger Murcia encounter.

Projected fair odds based on this thesis price him at just 1.35-1.40 so a value margin around 20% which is relatively rare.

However this price is a little short so let’s explore the negative handicap options to increase the potential payout.

Sousa vs Gill Free Pick Graphic Banner
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Bet of the Day (LOCKED)

The highest value market found by our analysts today is from the ATP Miami Open 2024 schedule.

There is a clear discrepancy between the implied probability (derived from sharp bookmaker odds once limits are raised) and the true outcome probability.

That’s why this selection has been graded as the ‘Bet of the Day’ (BOTD) and is available to subscribers only.

BOTD Tennis Tips UK is locked (ATP Miami 2024 tips)
Profit (units)ROI (%)Strike Rate (%)
Synopsis of overall results history for the BOTD delivered via email. Updated: 22/03/24 – View Spreadsheet

Tennis Tips UK – FAQ

Have Tennis Tips UK historically profited from their advised bets?

The site was founded back in 2013 and has delivered profit each year since. There have been many changes over the years but today there is a single subscription service for the best value bets. The team also publish some analysis for free like this article covering Sousa vs Gill. Tennis Tips UK offer a subscription service which tracks all it’s results publicly.

What is the difference between free bets and those requiring a subscription?

For most days there will be a free selection available to everyone. This offers value at the quoted price and is expected to deliver profit long term. However the market that offers the highest margin of value is graded as the ‘Bet of the Day’ (BOTD). This requires a subscription to access.

Is there a key to profiting from tennis betting?

The main ingredient to turn from a recreational punter to a successful bettor is discipline. It’s essential to adopt an investment style approach. Risk a small percentage of total bankroll per match and focus on getting bets placed/matched at a value price.

Have a brief look at the graphic references below. It illustrates the point that over a small number of bets luck is the key even with value bets (due to variance). However if you stay consistent long term and keep backing bets methodically the chances of losing collapse to near zero. It’s a virtual certainty you’ll be in profit as the odds work in your favour.

Never back a single pick NEEDING it to win. Of course you will WANT it to win but these are two very different things. Risk a small amount per match as anything can happen over a few sets. Have faith that value bets will deliver long term and manage bankroll responsibly.

To show Probability of overall loss from tennis betting graphic decreases over time

Why is Felix Gill priced as a favourite for this Challenger Murcia first round match?

Joao Sousa has enjoyed a highly successful career so when looking at his accolades it’s hard to see why a rising star youngster would be priced a favourite. However if there is one thing Tennis Tips UK’s analysts have learnt from over a decade of tennis betting – it’s that short term form metrics are a far more reliable indicator of match winner prediction.

Where can I get access to more free tennis picks?

Try BettingGods.com as they have proven a solid hub for reputable tipsters. Prospective subscribers can view full results and alter the stake to match their bankroll. Remember to exercise caution with all new tipsters and perhaps ‘paper trade’ initially.