Can I see an example of exactly what I would receive in my inbox as a club member?
This was a real email sent to club members. It may look a little intimidating initially but the selection in bold is the only essential piece of information to profit. We operate a simple staking strategy of 1 unit = 1% total bankroll. Each email consists of the tournament, match, selection, advised stake, minimum odds and projected win probability. This format will always be followed for consistency.
Italian Sinner has enjoyed a meteoric rise to the top of the men’s game over the past few years. Our analysts backed him the previous round and he came through comfortably. Whilst he always showed promise, few backed him to accumulate the number of titles he has already added to his cabined by such a young age. He faces what on paper will be a much tougher contest in this R16 contest however bookmakers expect him to progress pricing him at just 1.10 on average as of publication.
So… Can Sinner beat Khachanov?
Let’s take a look at the probability indicated by available odds from reputable sources. Most bookmakers and exchanges are covering the Sinner vs Khachanov encounter given the fact its the main draw at a major grand slam event so there is plenty of data to work with and get some meaningful insight.
Based on data from sharp bookmakers and exchanges offering Sinner to win priced in just the 1.10-1.12 range and adjusting to factor in the bookmaker edge. Data correct as of publication and subject to change.
So let’s translate this to something meaningful (AKA probability percentage chance) Sinner has a 90.00% chance of beating Khachanov at the Australian Open on Sunday 21st January 2024. By the same logic his opponent is most likely to prevail by a significant margin. has just a 1/10 probability of progressing to the next round.
Should I bet on Sinner to beat Khachanov today?
Sinner is priced at such short odds that the match winner market is rather unappealing. His opponent is equally as unattractive given the historically poor performance of underdogs in men’s tennis. This encounter is a perfect example of where it could be best to explore alternative markets such as the set betting, games handicap, set handicap and total games options which are widely available at most bookmakers nowadays. These options are explorer in much more detail in the FAQ section below.
Sinner vs Khachanov – Tennis Betting FAQ
Will Sinner beat Khachanov?
As calculated previously; 90% is the estimated probability of this outcome. Whilst that may sound appealing initially the available odds correlate with this at just 1.10 on average as of publication (odds subject to change). If the odds drift significantly it could become appealing to back the Italian.
Will Sinner win in straight sets? (i.e Sinner 3-0 Set Betting)
Considering we are always searching for a healthy risk/reward ratio in tennis betting this could be more appealing versus the match winner money line option. The probability of this outcome is approximately 51% based on our modelling. So odds close or above EVENS (2.00) could offer value.
Will there be O/U total games for Sinner vs Khachanov?
The over +34.5 total games line is currently where bookmakers think the probability lies at roughly 50/50. In this case those looking to back the under may be better going with the aforementioned Sinner to win in straight sets.
Who will hit the most aces in Sinner vs Khachanov?
Khachanov is a marginal favourite for this market. The Russian is expected to record an average of one more ace than Sinner (over a large sample size this is how it would most likely play out)
To answer the original question – Can Sinner beat Khachanov? – The answer is yes and given the calculated probability this is overwhelmingly the most likely outcome of the R16 match. In terms of tennis betting opportunities though it may be best to have a look at alternative markets for this one. The standout is definitely the Italian world number four to win in straight sets currently available at around 1.90-2.00 as of publication. Odds quoted subject to fluctuation.
Robert, Tennis Tips UK Analyst
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On average there will be 2-3 bets advised per week. This will be either a match winner, asian handicap or over/under total games market that’s accessible via all major bookmakers.
The selections are picked by tipsters (many private individuals who have never offered a public service) that we have discovered and verified since our portal was founded back in 2013. All prediction providers have delivered a sustained ROI in excess of 10%.
We use a simple 1% per selection bankroll management system. The odds quoted are available at multiple bookmakers and exchanges so it’s practical to replicate returns. All advisory is published at least 24 hours before the scheduled start time.
Most members use the advisory to generate profits via bookmaker and/or exchange accounts. For someone staking £100 per match this has yielded thousands in profit even once the annual membership fee is deducted.
Will bookmakers limit my account(s)?
Most likely, yes. Club bets have a proven track record of value (+ EV) and bookmakers are likely to notice this. Short term you’ll be fine but longer term we suggest using betting exchanges or ‘winners welcome’ bookmakers or brokers. That’s why we always quote and record odds from Betfair Exchange for members as that illustrates profits for those who are limited.
How will it work after joining?
Your membership will be confirmed with a personal welcome email. You’ll get 12 months access from a single payment and there is no auto renewal – we’ll simply ask if you wish to continue after the year has elapsed. You should expect an average of two emails per week detailing the advised selection, match, tournament and odds. Simply login to your betting account and place a wager on the selected market. We only use standard match winner bets, often referred to as the moneyline, so coverage is extensive at virtually all betting portals. Have any questions? Please visit the contact us page. Average response time 24h.
Is club membership limited?
Yes, we allow a maximum of ten members to have an active annual membership at any one time. This is to preserve value and market liquidity. Essentially ensuring it’s practical to obtain the advised odds without them disappearing too quickly.
What bankroll is required?
We suggest £10,000 or more ideally although smaller can work. Most members choose to follow our advice of staking 1% per match. This means it automatically adjusts and scales as the total grows and compounds returns. In the above example; the member would have yielded over £3,000 profit but had to pay the membership fee leaving them with a net profit in excess of £2200. Some members have vastly exceeded this by staking higher amounts but please remember to have a long term focus and ensure capacity for successive losses.
What type of bets should I expect?
Always match winner bets covering men’s professional tennis. This includes ATP events, Challenger and Grand Slams. We specialise in high odds underdogs which have yielded the most considerable profits in extensive back testing. Selections with odds of 10/1 (11.00) are not uncommon. We deliver advisory emails at a consistent time with a minimum of six hours before the scheduled start time to ensure plenty of time to get bets placed.
Who is the club open to?
Everyone with a decent bankroll and a long term outlook. We have members from around the world betting in many different currencies and jurisdictions. Tennis Tips UK are based in the United Kingdom, hence the name, but the club is truly global.
How is profit tracked?
For transparency we operate a public spreadsheet. This shows all key metrics such as units profit, ROI, yield and strike rate. We even monitor the Avg Diff CO % for those statisticians amongst you. In a nutshell this measures the implied value by comparing the advised odds with the sharp closing line. 2% is deducted from all recorded profit figures to simulate exchange commission. Just to clarify bets are only added to the spreadsheet post result confirmation to retain exclusivity of access to paid club members.
For winning bets our team also publish profit reports which feature the original email sent to members for additional tracking and verification purposes. This also includes a rating for that specific prediction which gives an insight into how our strategy is optimised over time.
Who picks the bets for club members?
Tennis Tips UK have grown into a small team over the years. Founded way back in 2013 by an odds compiler at a leading EU bookmaker. Since then joined by a quant and business manager. Each one of us lives and breathes tennis but we like to let our results speak for themselves rather than make outlandish personal claims.
Why don’t you bet on your own picks if they are so good?
We do, frequently. The issue surrounds liquidity and limitations. Club members have access to a wide range of liquidity from global sportsbooks and exchanges. We, as individuals, are far more restricted. Typically though we still stake an average of £10k per week on our selections but unfortunately virtually every bookmaker has long since banned us. We should take it a compliment really as a limitation is an endorsement of the profitability of your bets from an often billion pound institution.
Is there a way to reduce the cost of membership?
The fee is set at a level which allows us to fill membership places. If you are a prospective first time club member enter the promo code ‘TTUK10’ during checkout to reduce the cost. Please note this is a one time discount and not available for returning members.
Our objective is to consolidate the highest ROI tennis analysts, tipsters and individuals we have discovered & verified over the past decade into a single subscription service. It’s also to educate those looking to understand tennis betting from a profitable perspective.
