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Free Pick P/L Report for Friday

C Ruud (Odds: 2.10) #FrenchOpen

-$1000 and failed to beat closing odds

Email Subscription URL: https://tennis-tips.co.uk/tag/tennis-betting-tips/

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2

Free Pick for French Open SF

C Ruud vs A Zverev
C Ruud (Match Winner)
2.10 @ Betfair Exchange
Friday 7th June 2024

In an average week; Tennis Tips UK advise two bets. One of these selections made available to everyone free of charge and the other for club subscribers only.

Club P/L Report: Wed 06 June

C Ruud (Odds: 2.32) #FrenchOpen

Void as Djokovic withdrew before match

Full results: https://betdiary.io/tipster/dashboard/10027/tennistipsuk/ (+14.6% yield)

Email Subscription URL: https://tennis-tips.co.uk/join/

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Club P/L Report: Mon 03 June

F Cerundolo (Odds: 8.80) #FrenchOpen

-$1000 but beat sharp closing line

Full results: https://betdiary.io/tipster/dashboard/10027/tennistipsuk/ (+14.6% yield)

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2

Club P/L Report: Sat 01 June

L Musetti (Odds: 7.00) #FrenchOpen

-$1000 but beat sharp closing line

Full results: http://tennis-tips.co.uk

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2

Club P/L Report: Fri 31 May

M Arnaldi (Odds: 5.20) #FrenchOpen

+ $4990 but failed to beat closing line

Full results: http://tennis-tips.co.uk

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2

Kotov vs Sinner Prediction: Argument for backing both players ahead of their third round French Open encounter on Friday.

Club P/L Report: Sunday 26 May

S Mochizuki (Odds: 15.09) #FrenchOpen

-1.00 unit and failed to beat closing line

Full results: http://tennis-tips.co.uk

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2

Club P/L Report: Friday 24 May

M Kukushkin (Odds: 2.05) #FrenchOpen

+1.05 units but failed to beat closing line

Full results: http://betdiary.io/tipster/bets/1…

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3

Club P/L Report: Wednesday 22 May

T Griekspoor (Odds: 2.01) #ATPGeneva

+1.01 units and beat sharp closing line

Full results: https://betdiary.io/tipster/bets/10027/tennistipsuk/

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Home » Free Tips | Tennis Tips UK » Sinner v Baez Prediction | Australian Open 2024 Betting Insight

Sinner v Baez Betting Prediction – Friday, 19 Jan 2024, 00:00

Table of Contents

From all the action scheduled at the Australian Open on Friday, this is expected to be one of the most predictable outcomes as multiple title winning Jannik Sinner faces a player ranked significantly below him in the form of Argentine Sebastian Baez.

Many recreational tennis punters discount matches like this for the simple reason that they think profit is not attainable. It’s the old conundrum of backing the favourite yields such a pathetic return its not worth your time and the underdogs probability of winning is so minute it takes courage to back with even a small stake.

Fortunately with modern bookmakers and exchanges; bettors are spoilt with a plethora of betting options so even matches like this offer opportunities with enticing risk to reward ratios. Let’s explore these aforementioned options in detail in our Sinner v Baez prediction for the third round encounter.

Match Winner (Match Odds) – Prediction

As alluded to previously, this match has a very firm favourite and as such the match winner market could be best avoided. Jannik Sinner is priced at such low odds (as of publication) that even a large stake would deliver rather substandard returns. On the hand blindly backing large price underdogs in tennis has historically yielded horrendous returns so this could be an even worse trap.

Based on data from sharp bookmakers and exchanges indicating Jannik Sinner priced in the 1.01-1.03 range to win this Australian Open contest. This is adjusted to factor in the bookmaker edge. Data correct as of publication and subject to change.

So based on this data we can conclude that it would be considered a major upset for any outcome other than a win for the Italian. Given the exceptionally poor odds it’s not worth your time and worth exploring other markets including methods to still back Jannik Sinner but through more higher volatility markets that will offer a superior return in the event he does proceed.

baez profit graphic

Using the same data sources are previously detailed we can see a significant projected profit when backing Sebastian Baez. It could be even higher if using an exchange.

Whilst this may be appealing at first glance our analysts would advise caution given the aforementioned poor performance of ATP underdogs priced in a similar range to Sebastian Baez for this encounter vs Jannik Sinner.

Set Betting – Can Baez win at least a set?

For matches like this where the match winner offering is no unappealing (for reasons previously discussed) it’s natural to progress to the set betting section on the sportsbook to see if there could be value there. Let’s take a deep dive into the data to see if that is the case for Sinner v Baez.

baez to win a set probability graphic

The projections shown on the graphic are based on sharp bookmaker odds correct as of publication. Baez to win a set is priced in the 3.00-3.40 range which is similar to our analyst consensus.

This selection has a far superior long term expected return when contrasted to the match winner market based on our extensive modelling since 2013.

Total Match Games – O/U 28.5 Prediction

Focusing on a statistics market could be wise given the vast difference in level between the two contenders for this encounter specifically. There is a strong bias towards the over selection looking at volume of betting activity historically. This can actually present an opportunity for playing the role of contrarian and backing the under following an unjustified price drift.

total match games for baez v sinner prediction graphic showing potential profit from betting market

There certainly could be value in this market and our prediction providers believe the true probability of the under +28.5 total match games for Sinner v Baez could be modestly higher than suggested by current odds as indicated in the graphic shown on the left. Minimum odds 2.00 (EVENS) could be a good threshold to set but remember to your own research and only use our insight as a foundation for developing your own strategy for profiting from tennis betting.

What is the TENNIS TIPS UK CLUB?

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Tennis Tips UK have a team of analysts built over the past decade. Each has shown a proficiency in beating ATP, Challenger or Grand Slam markets consistently.

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Full tracking is available publicly via a third party verification platform. However there are multiple club members attaining four figure profit sums each month simply by following the advised bets using their bookmaker and exchange accounts.

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Are there any free tips for tennis and other sports?

Tennis Tips UK publish a free selection every week. The remainder are reserved for club members only. There is an option to subscribe so that this free insight gets delivery straight to your inbox (just open any individual pick and enter your email in the provided form)

If you like to place frequent bets then you can benefit from free daily tips via email, website and app over on the BettingGods.com tipster site. They cover sports including football/soccer and horse racing. Remember to have a look at the long term history first.