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Sinner v Baez Betting Prediction – Friday, 19 Jan 2024, 00:00
Table of Contents
From all the action scheduled at the Australian Open on Friday, this is expected to be one of the most predictable outcomes as multiple title winning Jannik Sinner faces a player ranked significantly below him in the form of Argentine Sebastian Baez.
Many recreational tennis punters discount matches like this for the simple reason that they think profit is not attainable. It’s the old conundrum of backing the favourite yields such a pathetic return its not worth your time and the underdogs probability of winning is so minute it takes courage to back with even a small stake.
Fortunately with modern bookmakers and exchanges; bettors are spoilt with a plethora of betting options so even matches like this offer opportunities with enticing risk to reward ratios. Let’s explore these aforementioned options in detail in our Sinner v Baez prediction for the third round encounter.
Match Winner (Match Odds) – Prediction
As alluded to previously, this match has a very firm favourite and as such the match winner market could be best avoided. Jannik Sinner is priced at such low odds (as of publication) that even a large stake would deliver rather substandard returns. On the hand blindly backing large price underdogs in tennis has historically yielded horrendous returns so this could be an even worse trap.
Based on data from sharp bookmakers and exchanges indicating Jannik Sinner priced in the 1.01-1.03 range to win this Australian Open contest. This is adjusted to factor in the bookmaker edge. Data correct as of publication and subject to change.
So based on this data we can conclude that it would be considered a major upset for any outcome other than a win for the Italian. Given the exceptionally poor odds it’s not worth your time and worth exploring other markets including methods to still back Jannik Sinner but through more higher volatility markets that will offer a superior return in the event he does proceed.
Using the same data sources are previously detailed we can see a significant projected profit when backing Sebastian Baez. It could be even higher if using an exchange.
Whilst this may be appealing at first glance our analysts would advise caution given the aforementioned poor performance of ATP underdogs priced in a similar range to Sebastian Baez for this encounter vs Jannik Sinner.
Set Betting – Can Baez win at least a set?
For matches like this where the match winner offering is no unappealing (for reasons previously discussed) it’s natural to progress to the set betting section on the sportsbook to see if there could be value there. Let’s take a deep dive into the data to see if that is the case for Sinner v Baez.
The projections shown on the graphic are based on sharp bookmaker odds correct as of publication. Baez to win a set is priced in the 3.00-3.40 range which is similar to our analyst consensus.
This selection has a far superior long term expected return when contrasted to the match winner market based on our extensive modelling since 2013.
Total Match Games – O/U 28.5 Prediction
Focusing on a statistics market could be wise given the vast difference in level between the two contenders for this encounter specifically. There is a strong bias towards the over selection looking at volume of betting activity historically. This can actually present an opportunity for playing the role of contrarian and backing the under following an unjustified price drift.
There certainly could be value in this market and our prediction providers believe the true probability of the under +28.5 total match games for Sinner v Baez could be modestly higher than suggested by current odds as indicated in the graphic shown on the left. Minimum odds 2.00 (EVENS) could be a good threshold to set but remember to your own research and only use our insight as a foundation for developing your own strategy for profiting from tennis betting.
What is the TENNIS TIPS UK CLUB?
Subscription service for tennis bettors to receive advisory direct to their inbox. This specifies the match, which bet and the recommended stake. Following these recommended picks has yielded a return in excess of 20% as of early 2024.
Who picks the advised bets?Tennis Tips UK have a team of analysts built over the past decade. Each has shown a proficiency in beating ATP, Challenger or Grand Slam markets consistently.
How much profit have the picks made overall?Full tracking is available publicly via a third party verification platform. However there are multiple club members attaining four figure profit sums each month simply by following the advised bets using their bookmaker and exchange accounts.
How can I get access?Club membership is currently open to applications. Subscribers can expect to receive picks most days that the primary tours are active. These will be match winner or games handicap bets priced at 2.00 or above covering ATP, Challenger or Grand Slam matches.
Do you offer any FREE PICKS?Unfortunately not as the advisory must be kept private for club subscribers so they can easily obtain the quoted prices. Based on feedback from our community of external services we can recommend these free email betting tips for those with smaller bankrolls.
Club P/L Report: Sunday 21st July
$1000 advised backing Halys to beat Berrettini at odds of 4.30 on Betfair Exchange. Outcome was a straight sets win.
-$1000 and failed to beat closing odds #ATPGstaad
Full P/L Report: https://tennis-tips.co.uk/profit-loss-reports/2024/07/21/sunday-21st-july-club-p-l-report/
Club P/L Report: Friday 19th July
$1000 advised backing Martinez to beat Cerundolo at odds of 3.60 on Betfair Exchange. Outcome was a three set win.
+$3470 after commission deduction but failed to beat closing odds #HamburgOpen
Full P/L Report: https://tennis-tips.co.uk/profit-loss-reports/2024/07/19/friday-19th-july-club-p-l-report/
Club P/L Report: Thursday 18 July
$1000 advised backing Boyer to beat Tung-Lin Wu at odds of 2.06 on Betfair Exchange. Outcome was a three set win for the later.
-$1000 but beat closing odds #ChallengerGranby
Full P/L Report: https://tennis-tips.co.uk/tennis-betting-tips/2024/07/18/thursday-18th-july-club-report/
Club P/L Report: Wednesday 17 July
$1000 advised backing Tirante to beat Rublev at odds of 5.80 on Betfair Exchange. Outcome was a three set win.
+$5560 but failed to beat closing odds #SwedishOpen
Full History & Subscription details: http://tennis-tips.co.uk/profit-history/
Club P/L Report: Tuesday 16 July
+4990 and beat closing odds #ChallengerTour
Subscription details: https://tennis-tips.co.uk/profit-history/
Club P/L Report: Tuesday 16th July 2024
-$1000 and failed to beat closing odds #ATPHamburg
Free Pick for Tuesday 16th July
ATP Hamburg R1
A Fils vs J Munar
J Munar (Match Winner)
1 unit @ 2.50 via Betfair Exchange
Full reasoning: https://tennis-tips.co.uk/free-tips/2024/07/15/free-pick-for-tuesday-16th-july-fils-vs-munar-prediction-for-atp-hamburg-r1-betting-tips/
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