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Australian Open 2024 Betting Preview

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The first grand slam of the calendar year always reignites the fire inside every tennis punter. Five set format matches have delivered some of the most memorable matches in history including the classic longest ever encounter win by the giant John Isner.

Nowadays the field is led by many young stars but there is one exception – Novak Djokovic. He remains the favourite and will be tough to beat. Many expected his form to drop as he reached what would typically be the later years of a career but he’s just gone from strength to strength.

Let’s take a comprehensive look at the main contenders with our Australian Open 2024 betting preview. As always the focus will be odds sourced from high true probability correlation bookmakers and exchanges where the sharpest punters tend to focus their betting volume.

Novak Djokovic – Australian Open 2024 Favourite

It’s hard to see past the Serbian when it comes to the argument of who is the most likely to win the 2024 iteration of the Australian Open. However that’s a different question from who offers the best value from a tennis betting perspective. Historically backing the big name players have yielded a modest return but there are plenty of better offerings elsewhere this year.

djokovic Australian open probability infographic

Based on data from sharp bookmakers and exchanges indicating Novak Djokovic priced in the 2.18-2.20 range in the outright winner market for the 2024 iteration of the Australian Open contest. Correct as of publication and subject to change as tournament progresses.

So based on this data we can conclude that there is more likely than not chance that the winner of the Australian Open 2024 will be another player in the draw and not the Serbian. He remains the most likely individual player to win however when considered in isolation.

Carlos Alcaraz – Can he obtain a third grand slam title?

It’s an exciting time in men’s tennis and many rising stars are starting to become more established and consistent but none more so than Spaniard Carlos Alcaraz who famously beat Novak Djokovic in a thrilling Wimbledon final last year. His form has dipped recently though with relatively poor performances in Shanghai and Beijing. He’s also never progressed past the third round in previous attempts down under.

His price has drifted given recent results but he remains a firm contender and is given a projected probability of winning the 2024 Australian Open just below 20% which is calculated based on odds around 5.10-5.20

This is more appealing than Novak Djokovic given the significantly larger price and the fact that a recovery to his levels from past year is not a farfetched fantasy. Certainly worthy of consideration.

Jannik Sinner – Impressive 81% Win Rate Last Season

He was one of the standout performers in the 2023 season with multiple titles and impressive average attainment metrics across all matches. He’s priced in a respectable range in the Australian Open 2024 outright market and so is certainly being given respect as a viable contender this year. He’s progressed to the quarterfinal down under a few years ago and has progressed so a much higher level since. From all the players we have analysed so far in our Australian Open 2024 betting preview he’s certainly the most appealing but we advise caution given the high volatility of this selection.

sinner Australian open betting preview infographic

Given a small chance based on current odds obtained from sharp sources (i.e exchanges, Pinnacle sportsbook). There certainly could be value in this market and our prediction providers believe the true probability could be modestly higher than this indicated level.

Best Value Bet – Outright Market (Premium Prediction)

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