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Sinner vs Khachanov- R16 – Data Driven Tennis Betting Insight

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Italian Sinner has enjoyed a meteoric rise to the top of the men’s game over the past few years. Our analysts backed him the previous round and he came through comfortably. Whilst he always showed promise, few backed him to accumulate the number of titles he has already added to his cabined by such a young age. He faces what on paper will be a much tougher contest in this R16 contest however bookmakers expect him to progress pricing him at just 1.10 on average as of publication.

So… Can Sinner beat Khachanov?

Let’s take a look at the probability indicated by available odds from reputable sources. Most bookmakers and exchanges are covering the Sinner vs Khachanov encounter given the fact its the main draw at a major grand slam event so there is plenty of data to work with and get some meaningful insight.

graphic by tennis tips uk showing the probability of Sinner to beat Khachanov at the Australian Open 2024 on Sunday

Based on data from sharp bookmakers and exchanges offering Sinner to win priced in just the 1.10-1.12 range and adjusting to factor in the bookmaker edge. Data correct as of publication and subject to change.

So let’s translate this to something meaningful (AKA probability percentage chance) Sinner has a 90.00% chance of beating Khachanov at the Australian Open on Sunday 21st January 2024. By the same logic his opponent is most likely to prevail by a significant margin. has just a 1/10 probability of progressing to the next round.

Should I bet on Sinner to beat Khachanov today?

Sinner is priced at such short odds that the match winner market is rather unappealing. His opponent is equally as unattractive given the historically poor performance of underdogs in men’s tennis. This encounter is a perfect example of where it could be best to explore alternative markets such as the set betting, games handicap, set handicap and total games options which are widely available at most bookmakers nowadays. These options are explorer in much more detail in the FAQ section below.

Sinner vs Khachanov – Tennis Betting FAQ

Will Sinner beat Khachanov?

As calculated previously; 90% is the estimated probability of this outcome. Whilst that may sound appealing initially the available odds correlate with this at just 1.10 on average as of publication (odds subject to change). If the odds drift significantly it could become appealing to back the Italian.

Will Sinner win in straight sets? (i.e Sinner 3-0 Set Betting)

Considering we are always searching for a healthy risk/reward ratio in tennis betting this could be more appealing versus the match winner money line option. The probability of this outcome is approximately 51% based on our modelling. So odds close or above EVENS (2.00) could offer value.

Will there be O/U total games for Sinner vs Khachanov?

The over +34.5 total games line is currently where bookmakers think the probability lies at roughly 50/50. In this case those looking to back the under may be better going with the aforementioned Sinner to win in straight sets.

Who will hit the most aces in Sinner vs Khachanov?

Khachanov is a marginal favourite for this market. The Russian is expected to record an average of one more ace than Sinner (over a large sample size this is how it would most likely play out)

To answer the original question – Can Sinner beat Khachanov? – The answer is yes and given the calculated probability this is overwhelmingly the most likely outcome of the R16 match. In terms of tennis betting opportunities though it may be best to have a look at alternative markets for this one. The standout is definitely the Italian world number four to win in straight sets currently available at around 1.90-2.00 as of publication. Odds quoted subject to fluctuation.

Robert, Tennis Tips UK Analyst

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  • On average there will be 2-3 bets advised per week. This will be either a match winner, asian handicap or over/under total games market that’s accessible via all major bookmakers.

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