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✅ WON @ 9.20 (+820) – A Bublik (beat J Sinner) – Thu 19 Jan 2025 – Club P/L Report
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✅ WON @ 2.34 – Z Bergs – ATP Hertongenbosch – Club P/L Report for Saturday 14th June 2025
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✅ WON @ 2.52 – C Moutet (ATP Rome) – Club P/L Report – Tennis Betting Tips for Friday 9th May 2025
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Finding Value in Tennis Betting Markets | Bookmaker Trader Insight
Tennis Tips UK consider many factors when finding value in tennis markets. This includes player form, surface attainment data and potential fatigue (for example if a player has a high total court time in recent days or had to travel a large distance between events). These elements have a tangible effect on the match outcome and if bookmaker/exchange odds fail to reflect all of these factors then smart punters can exploit this value.
Bookmaker’s employ individuals or even teams responsible for setting the odds for sporting events each day. These individuals are known as ‘traders’ and are employed for their detailed knowledge of a specific sport such as tennis, football or horse racing. This is explained and shown in practice at a large UK based bookmaker in the BBC documentary – Britain at the Bookies
Remember that bookmaker companies offering sportsbook services are paying these individuals moderate to large annual salaries for their work. Pricing markets correctly is essential in terms of ensuring that they are profitable. Mistakes can be costly – especially at large bookmakers where thousands of customers are placing bets on a frequent basis. With the introduction of odds comparison websites virtually anyone can quickly see which bookmakers are offering the best odds for a specific match, player or event. In this article our team will look at how to find value in tennis betting.
Setting Event Odds: The Process for Traders
It’s important to understand that bookmaker traders are not gamblers. Their job is ensure that, regardless of a match outcome, a modest profit is guaranteed. Contrary to popular belief – most bookmakers don’t want individual, informed customers placing large bets. Small monetary amounts but with a high bet volume is far more valuable. Traders must set odds that accurately reflect the probability of each player winning and also factor in the bookmaker profit margin.
Example Match: Player A vs Player B
At first glance looking at the odds below for this imaginary match, it may seem bookmakers are all offering roughly the same odds. An amateur bettor would fail to read into this information anymore than surface value. However let’s take a look at the bookmakers below. As a general rule Marathon Bet have smaller profit margins but all others are very similar. So the fact that Sporting Bet are offering the best odds for Player A at 1/3 (1.33) means their traders want to attract money on that selection. They know that thousands of members around the world use odds comparison sites and will bet with the bookmaker offering the best odds – loyalty is rare nowadays.
On a basic level – why would a bookmaker want to attract money on a particular player or team? Most likely because their traders think they are likely to lose or at the very least are poor value considering their probability of winning.
However in this example William Hill are offering better odds than all other bookmakers despite having similar profit margins – so their traders disagree and believe Player A is likely to prevail and Player B presents bad value from a punters point of view. Clearly it’s not always that ‘black and white’ but this example illustrates the concept.
How to find Tennis Betting Value in Markets | Based on Trader Odds at Bookmakers
Bookmaker Price Boosts, Enhanced Odds and Multiples
Another key area to look at regularly is bookmaker promotions. For example if you browse the tennis section of most bookmakers there will be ‘bet boosts’ for specific wagers. For example ‘Novak Djokovic 2-0 Set Betting’ could be enhanced to odds of evens (2.00) when at most other bookmakers it is around 4/5 (1.80). This may seem like a minor difference but it is a clear indication that bookmaker traders want money on that selection. So in the example above it may show that backing Djokovic’s opponent to win at least a set is good value (in other words the traders at the bookmaker have that opinion)
Enhanced Multiple Example:
Bookmaker Enhanced Offer Promotion | In this example it may indicate that set handicap wagers on the opponents of Murray, Wawrinka and Tsonga present good value.
Additional Factors for Finding Tennis Betting Value:
Tennis Tips UK consider many factors when analyzing markets. Using the methods above can be a good place to start for beginners as it essentially gives an insight into the minds of expert traders specifically employed by bookmakers for their knowledge of a sport. It’s important not to simply follow the aforementioned techniques blindly – additional factors such as player form, performance on specific surfaces (i.e indoor hard court, clay, grass etc.) all need to be considered. Apply for VIP Club Membership if you would like to benefit from the daily insight and tip(s) from our team.
What is the purpose of club membership?
Most members use the advisory to generate profits via bookmaker and/or exchange accounts. For someone staking £100 per match this has yielded thousands in profit even once the annual membership fee is deducted.
Will bookmakers limit my account(s)?
Most likely, yes. Club bets have a proven track record of value (+ EV) and bookmakers are likely to notice this. Short term you’ll be fine but longer term we suggest using betting exchanges or ‘winners welcome’ bookmakers or brokers. That’s why we always quote and record odds from Betfair Exchange for members as that illustrates profits for those who are limited.
How will it work after joining?
Your membership will be confirmed with a personal welcome email. You’ll get 12 months access from a single payment and there is no auto renewal – we’ll simply ask if you wish to continue after the year has elapsed. You should expect an average of two emails per week detailing the advised selection, match, tournament and odds. Simply login to your betting account and place a wager on the selected market. We only use standard match winner bets, often referred to as the moneyline, so coverage is extensive at virtually all betting portals. Have any questions? Please visit the contact us page. Average response time 24h.
Is club membership limited?
Yes, we allow a maximum of ten members to have an active annual membership at any one time. This is to preserve value and market liquidity. Essentially ensuring it’s practical to obtain the advised odds without them disappearing too quickly.
What bankroll is required?
We suggest £10,000 or more ideally although smaller can work. Most members choose to follow our advice of staking 1% per match. This means it automatically adjusts and scales as the total grows and compounds returns. In the above example; the member would have yielded over £3,000 profit but had to pay the membership fee leaving them with a net profit in excess of £2200. Some members have vastly exceeded this by staking higher amounts but please remember to have a long term focus and ensure capacity for successive losses.
What type of bets should I expect?
Always match winner bets covering men’s professional tennis. This includes ATP events, Challenger and Grand Slams. We specialise in high odds underdogs which have yielded the most considerable profits in extensive back testing. Selections with odds of 10/1 (11.00) are not uncommon. We deliver advisory emails at a consistent time with a minimum of six hours before the scheduled start time to ensure plenty of time to get bets placed.
Who is the club open to?
Everyone with a decent bankroll and a long term outlook. We have members from around the world betting in many different currencies and jurisdictions. Tennis Tips UK are based in the United Kingdom, hence the name, but the club is truly global.
How is profit tracked?
For transparency we operate a public spreadsheet. This shows all key metrics such as units profit, ROI, yield and strike rate. We even monitor the Avg Diff CO % for those statisticians amongst you. In a nutshell this measures the implied value by comparing the advised odds with the sharp closing line. 2% is deducted from all recorded profit figures to simulate exchange commission. Just to clarify bets are only added to the spreadsheet post result confirmation to retain exclusivity of access to paid club members.
For winning bets our team also publish profit reports which feature the original email sent to members for additional tracking and verification purposes. This also includes a rating for that specific prediction which gives an insight into how our strategy is optimised over time.
Who picks the bets for club members?
Tennis Tips UK have grown into a small team over the years. Founded way back in 2013 by an odds compiler at a leading EU bookmaker. Since then joined by a quant and business manager. Each one of us lives and breathes tennis but we like to let our results speak for themselves rather than make outlandish personal claims.
Why don’t you bet on your own picks if they are so good?
We do, frequently. The issue surrounds liquidity and limitations. Club members have access to a wide range of liquidity from global sportsbooks and exchanges. We, as individuals, are far more restricted. Typically though we still stake an average of £10k per week on our selections but unfortunately virtually every bookmaker has long since banned us. We should take it a compliment really as a limitation is an endorsement of the profitability of your bets from an often billion pound institution.
Is there a way to reduce the cost of membership?
The fee is set at a level which allows us to fill membership places. If you are a prospective first time club member enter the promo code ‘TTUK10’ during checkout to reduce the cost. Please note this is a one time discount and not available for returning members.
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