Outright winner markets are high variance with significant volatility and the ‘European Cup’ is no different with multiple tempting selections priced in the 4.00-10.00 range. Let’s delve into the probability and see if there are any discrepancies with what the market currently offers in terms of odds with our ATP Antwerp Prediction: Who offers value at the European Cup?
Let’s start by looking at the main contenders. The Canadian rising star Felix Auger Aliassime leads the pack and is priced at 4.92 as of publication in the ‘Player to win ATP Antwerp All in’ market. This suggests a win probability of around 20% after factoring in the bookmaker margin. Jack Draper and Karen Khachanov are priced marginally above this threshold. Tools used for these calculations – Odds to Probability Converter – No Vig Fair Odds Generator. These are free and valuable resources for value centric sports bettors looking for a long term edge.
ATP Antwerp 2022: True Odds / Probability
Tennis Tips UK use a combination of exchange data, sharp bookmaker prices and internal modelling to find value across individual ATP matches and overall events. This is published in the form of ’True Odds’ which aim to more accurately reflect the actual probability of an event occurring. Our team focuses on odds sourced from Pinnacle to avoid limitations and to quote prices that are realistically obtainable to winners. A synopsis of findings are presented below.
| Selection | Available Odds | True Odds |
|---|---|---|
| J Draper | 7.63 @ Pinnacle (Poor) | 8.50 (11.80%) |
| F Aliassime | 4.92 @ Pinnacle (Fair) | 4.90 (20.40%) |
| K Khachanov | 8.71 @ Pinnacle (Good) | 8.00 (12.50%) |
