This first round encounter scheduled for Monday 17 October 2022 pits two rising stars against each other at the ‘European Cup’. Let’s delve into the probability and see if there are any discrepancies with what the market currently offers in terms of odds with our Draper vs Brooksby Prediction.
Let’s start by looking at the average prices across major sportsbooks. The American Brooksby is priced at 1.82 in the match winner market indicating a win probability of 51.85%. This puts the Brit’s chances at a projected 48.15% with an average offering of 1.96. Tools used for these calculations – Odds to Probability Converter – No Vig Fair Odds Generator. These are free and valuable resources.
The bookmaker offering the highest overall payout rate is 10Bet at 96.70% which is relatively poor. Exchanges have limited liquidity but this should improve as the start time approaches. However even at this stage it’s clear based on the odds layed that any price above evens for Draper could offer value.
How to Identify Value: Draper vs Brooksby Prediction
Tennis Tips UK use a combination of exchange data, sharp bookmaker prices and internal modelling to find value across ATP, WTA & Challenger matches. A synopsis of findings are presented below.
| Selection | Available Odds | True Odds |
|---|---|---|
| J Draper | 2.06 @ Betfair Exchange | 2.04 (100.98% Payout) |
| J Brooksby | 1.90 @ Smarkets | 1.96 (96.94% Payout) |
| Under 22.5 | 1.95 @ Betway | 1.95 (100.00% Payout) |
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