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M Polmans vs N Moreno De Alboran Prediction – Sunday 18th February 2024
Table of Contents
The Los Cabos Open (AKA ATP Los Cabos) is a hard court hosted in Mexico. The 2024 iteration will commence properly from Monday once qualifying has concluded. However it is the aforementioned qualification that we focus on today with our preview of the Q-R16 encounter between the more established Australian Marc Polmans and his inform opponent Nicolas Moreno De Alboran (try saying that after a few drinks). Who will emerge victorious and progress to the main draw? Discover this with our M Polmans vs N Moreno De Alboran prediction, tips and betting insight.
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Odds & Probability
Bookmakers and exchanges are respecting the form of Nicolas Moreno De Alboran (7-5 on hard courts in 2024 – Data Source: Tennis Explorer). He is priced in the 1.50-1.60 range as of publication. Players priced in this category have performed relatively poorly across a large dataset as explored in our tennis betting guide. However as always our focus is on this match specifically and short term form metrics are one of the most reliable indicators of match outcome from our extensive research.
Marc Polmans has a 40% chance of winning this match in either two or three sets based on the current sharp bookmaker prices.
His opponent is a marginal favourite and with odds of 1.50-1.60 this suggests approximately a 60% chance of progressing to the next stage of ATP Los Cabos 2024.
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To conclude our M Polmans vs N Moreno De Alboran prediction this match seems to be priced relatively efficiently. To find value look at the more niche markets such as set betting, games handicap and total aces. In particular the over 2.5 (total sets) market looks appealing at prices above EVENS (2.00+)
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Based on our modelling he has a 40% chance of winning. If odds drift to above the 2.60 range it could offer value for a conservative stake.
The aforementioned over 2.5 (total sets) market is certainly worth a closer look. Always focus on value and only back at the correct price which we suggest is comfortably above 2.00
The over line seems appealing for Polmans vs Moreno De Alboran but again its important to back at a price above the value threshold. This is roughly 1.90 based on our calculations.
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Club P/L Report: Sunday 21st July
$1000 advised backing Halys to beat Berrettini at odds of 4.30 on Betfair Exchange. Outcome was a straight sets win.
-$1000 and failed to beat closing odds #ATPGstaad
Full P/L Report: https://tennis-tips.co.uk/profit-loss-reports/2024/07/21/sunday-21st-july-club-p-l-report/
Club P/L Report: Friday 19th July
$1000 advised backing Martinez to beat Cerundolo at odds of 3.60 on Betfair Exchange. Outcome was a three set win.
+$3470 after commission deduction but failed to beat closing odds #HamburgOpen
Full P/L Report: https://tennis-tips.co.uk/profit-loss-reports/2024/07/19/friday-19th-july-club-p-l-report/
Club P/L Report: Thursday 18 July
$1000 advised backing Boyer to beat Tung-Lin Wu at odds of 2.06 on Betfair Exchange. Outcome was a three set win for the later.
-$1000 but beat closing odds #ChallengerGranby
Full P/L Report: https://tennis-tips.co.uk/tennis-betting-tips/2024/07/18/thursday-18th-july-club-report/
Club P/L Report: Wednesday 17 July
$1000 advised backing Tirante to beat Rublev at odds of 5.80 on Betfair Exchange. Outcome was a three set win.
+$5560 but failed to beat closing odds #SwedishOpen
Full History & Subscription details: http://tennis-tips.co.uk/profit-history/
Club P/L Report: Tuesday 16 July
+4990 and beat closing odds #ChallengerTour
Subscription details: https://tennis-tips.co.uk/profit-history/
Club P/L Report: Tuesday 16th July 2024
-$1000 and failed to beat closing odds #ATPHamburg
Free Pick for Tuesday 16th July
ATP Hamburg R1
A Fils vs J Munar
J Munar (Match Winner)
1 unit @ 2.50 via Betfair Exchange
Full reasoning: https://tennis-tips.co.uk/free-tips/2024/07/15/free-pick-for-tuesday-16th-july-fils-vs-munar-prediction-for-atp-hamburg-r1-betting-tips/
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