Fonseca vs Garin Tips – Who will win this R16 matchup? ATP Rio de Janeiro 2024 Betting Prediction from Tennis Tips UK
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There is plenty of action scheduled for today but there is one encounter that caught our attention from a tennis betting perspective. That is the R16 encounter at the Rio Open featuring Garin vs Fonseca. Bookmakers have priced this match as a coinflip (i.e 50/50) however there is often value to be found in such encounters for those willing to dedicate a little time to research, analysis and statistical data modelling. Don’t worry though the Tennis Tips UK have done the hard work already and you can find their insight in the proceeding article. An archive history is available showing all previous match previews published.
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ATP Rio de Janeiro Tips – Friday 23/02/2024 00:30 (UK Time)
The Argument for Fonseca
Joao Fonseca has a 54.20% chance of winning this match in either two or three sets based on our internal statistical modelling. This is an approach similar to how bookmaker traders collate odds but with a differing view on the significance of certain factors.
This would suggest value (+EV) could be obtained with odds of 1.95 or above. As of publication there are multiple bookmakers and exchanges offering prices above this level so there is marginal value present.
He is young and inexperienced and ranked much lower than his opponent. However his recent form metrics are highly impressive including a dominant first round win over Arthur Fils despite being priced above 4.00 to progress from this matchup.
The Argument for Garin
Cristian Garin has a 45.80% chance of winning this match in either two or three sets based on our analysts calculations.
This would suggest value (+EV) could be obtained with odds of 2.20 or above. As of publication the bookmaker average below EVENS which would suggest this market is best avoided if seeking value.
However there are additional factors to consider. Garin is experienced and his opponent is just 17 years old. He also won the Rio Open back in 2020 so has good pedigree with the court speed and conditions.
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Fonseca vs Garin Tips – 23/02/2024 – FAQ
As always the outcome is not known but probabilities are a good place to focus attention if looking to profit. Based on current odds it appears Fonseca offers value if you can obtain odds around EVENS (2.00). Remember to focus long term and only wager small amounts per encounter.
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