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✅ WON @ 9.20 (+820) – A Bublik (beat J Sinner) – Thu 19 Jan 2025 – Club P/L Report
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The Australian Open women’s final is the highlight today. Simona Halep and Caroline Wozniacki will battle it out for their first grand slam title. The mens final is scheduled for Sunday the team will take a look today at any projected significant pre-match market movements that could present an opportunity over the coming hours and give updates via social media.
About Tennis Trading Preview’s from Tennis Tips UK
In this article a small trading team based in the UK provide their analysis and recommendations for the ATP, WTA & Challenger action scheduled for the day ahead. Normally the focus will be on a single match for the main trade but there will occasionally be a higher volume of matches if they present solid trading options. The team trade tennis markets full time and use it as their primary income source. To be clear this is for individuals trading markets using exchanges (i.e BETDAQ, Smarkets, Matchbook & Betfair) with the goal of profiting from market movements pre-match and/or trading specific events or periods in the match. This differs from traditional sports betting in that the final outcome is almost always irelevant. It’s the market movements and odds fluctuations that present the opportunity traders desire. For those new to this concept the ‘Tennis Trading Guide‘ is highly recommended as it gives an overview of basic strategies, the tools and resources needed to trade succesfully and how to gain an edge. Always start with low risk / liability trades when learning how to trade markets or when experimenting with new techniques.
Focus Match: Halep v Wozniacki
The following match preview was provided by the Tennis Tips UK trading team. Odds, statistics and external data was correct as of the original time of publication. Always verify details directly using exchanges prior to trading.
Synopsis: As of the publication time (03:05AM) Halep is trading at 1.73 in the match winner market which implies a win probability of 57.80%. Her opponent, Wozniacki, has 2.36 available to be matched with relatively high liquidity. In terms of pre-match odds movements – the price for Halep would be expected to shorten slightly towards the morning as the market sides with the favorite but this move may be marginal. Little opportunity for pre-match profit.
Key Trading Points: First Game (Break of Serve), First Set Winner (Lay Match Winner Market), High Total Games
Recommended Market Entry & Exit Points: Both players have relatively weak serve metrics and stellar ratings when returning looking at their performances this week and longer term. This makes the first game an interesting time to enter the market. Not only is there the weak service attainment but also the fact it takes time to find rythmn on serve and with it being a grand slam final could mean a nervous opening despite both players experience. The returner will have an edge if this does materialise.
Depending on who serves first – laying that player in the match winner market could prove profitable for a quick exit either after a few points or if/once a break occurs for those looking for a higher variance trade. The match winner price would shorten significantly if either player scored a break in the opening game. Perhaps more than it should considering the high number of projected breaks during the match.
If the server does hold in the opening game then the trade should be closed for a small loss (as the price is unlikely to drift considerably). The next opportunity will be after the first set result is confirmed.
Both Wozniacki and Halep have strong W1/L2 metrics. This refers to their probability of losing the first set after winning the first. This makes ‘laying’ the first set winner at the start of the second appealing. If they can hold serve and/or gain a break the trade should be closed for a profit.
Wozniacki v Halep Trading – Market Overview – Exchange for Australian Open 2018 Final
What is the purpose of club membership?
Most members use the advisory to generate profits via bookmaker and/or exchange accounts. For someone staking £100 per match this has yielded thousands in profit even once the annual membership fee is deducted.
Will bookmakers limit my account(s)?
Most likely, yes. Club bets have a proven track record of value (+ EV) and bookmakers are likely to notice this. Short term you’ll be fine but longer term we suggest using betting exchanges or ‘winners welcome’ bookmakers or brokers. That’s why we always quote and record odds from Betfair Exchange for members as that illustrates profits for those who are limited.
How will it work after joining?
Your membership will be confirmed with a personal welcome email. You’ll get 12 months access from a single payment and there is no auto renewal – we’ll simply ask if you wish to continue after the year has elapsed. You should expect an average of two emails per week detailing the advised selection, match, tournament and odds. Simply login to your betting account and place a wager on the selected market. We only use standard match winner bets, often referred to as the moneyline, so coverage is extensive at virtually all betting portals. Have any questions? Please visit the contact us page. Average response time 24h.
Is club membership limited?
Yes, we allow a maximum of ten members to have an active annual membership at any one time. This is to preserve value and market liquidity. Essentially ensuring it’s practical to obtain the advised odds without them disappearing too quickly.
What bankroll is required?
We suggest £10,000 or more ideally although smaller can work. Most members choose to follow our advice of staking 1% per match. This means it automatically adjusts and scales as the total grows and compounds returns. In the above example; the member would have yielded over £3,000 profit but had to pay the membership fee leaving them with a net profit in excess of £2200. Some members have vastly exceeded this by staking higher amounts but please remember to have a long term focus and ensure capacity for successive losses.
What type of bets should I expect?
Always match winner bets covering men’s professional tennis. This includes ATP events, Challenger and Grand Slams. We specialise in high odds underdogs which have yielded the most considerable profits in extensive back testing. Selections with odds of 10/1 (11.00) are not uncommon. We deliver advisory emails at a consistent time with a minimum of six hours before the scheduled start time to ensure plenty of time to get bets placed.
Who is the club open to?
Everyone with a decent bankroll and a long term outlook. We have members from around the world betting in many different currencies and jurisdictions. Tennis Tips UK are based in the United Kingdom, hence the name, but the club is truly global.
How is profit tracked?
For transparency we operate a public spreadsheet. This shows all key metrics such as units profit, ROI, yield and strike rate. We even monitor the Avg Diff CO % for those statisticians amongst you. In a nutshell this measures the implied value by comparing the advised odds with the sharp closing line. 2% is deducted from all recorded profit figures to simulate exchange commission. Just to clarify bets are only added to the spreadsheet post result confirmation to retain exclusivity of access to paid club members.
For winning bets our team also publish profit reports which feature the original email sent to members for additional tracking and verification purposes. This also includes a rating for that specific prediction which gives an insight into how our strategy is optimised over time.
Who picks the bets for club members?
Tennis Tips UK have grown into a small team over the years. Founded way back in 2013 by an odds compiler at a leading EU bookmaker. Since then joined by a quant and business manager. Each one of us lives and breathes tennis but we like to let our results speak for themselves rather than make outlandish personal claims.
Why don’t you bet on your own picks if they are so good?
We do, frequently. The issue surrounds liquidity and limitations. Club members have access to a wide range of liquidity from global sportsbooks and exchanges. We, as individuals, are far more restricted. Typically though we still stake an average of £10k per week on our selections but unfortunately virtually every bookmaker has long since banned us. We should take it a compliment really as a limitation is an endorsement of the profitability of your bets from an often billion pound institution.
Is there a way to reduce the cost of membership?
The fee is set at a level which allows us to fill membership places. If you are a prospective first time club member enter the promo code ‘TTUK10’ during checkout to reduce the cost. Please note this is a one time discount and not available for returning members.
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