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- ❌ LOST @ 5.76 | Zverev to beat Alcaraz | Australian Open
- ❌ LOST @ 10.35 | Shelton to beat Sinner | Australian Open
- ❌ LOST @ 2.84 | Tien to beat Zverev | Australian Open
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| Profit (units) | Yield (%) | Strike Rate (%) | Average Odds (Decimal) | Illustrative Return (£100 staked per pick) |
| +126.20 | 33.80 | 33.30 | 5.05 | £12,620 from backing every selection as of January 2026 |
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Michelsen vs Zverev – Round 3 – Tennis Betting Preview
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After a marathon encounter in the previous round and many challenges off court Zverev could have easily enjoyed a better run up to this third round match against American rising star Michelsen. However the gulf in ability and experience may prove telling and bookmakers certainly expect the higher ranked player to progress given his price as of publication.
So… Will Michelsen beat Zverev?
Let’s take a look at the probability indicated by available odds from reputable sources. Most bookmakers and exchanges are covering this encounter given the fact its the main draw at a major grand slam event so there is plenty of data to work with and get some meaningful insight.
Based on data from sharp bookmakers and exchanges offering Michelsen to win priced in the 5.00-6.00 range and adjusting to factor in the bookmaker edge. Data correct as of publication and subject to change.
So equated into probability (AKA percentage chance) Michelsen has a 17.20% chance of beating Zverev at the Australian Open on Saturday. By the same logic his opponent is most likely to prevail by a significant margin.
Should I bet on Michelsen to beat Zverev today?
Historically players priced in a similar range to Michelsen have actually won far less than the odds derived probability would suggest. This would indicate a match winner bet backing the underdog may not be advisable. However the sharp bookmaker punters have shortened his price from an opening level of 5.85 to 5.65 as of publication. Beating the Pinnacle start price (SP) is the most effective may of profiting long term from tennis betting as its almost exactly correlated with true probability.
Michelsen vs Zverev FAQ
He has a 17.20% chance of winning based on sharp bookmaker insight. Given the factors currently affecting Zverev in his private life it could present a value opportunity but perhaps the games handicap and set handicap options could be lower volatility and consequently more appealing.
The most appealing market could be the Michelsen +2.5 (Set Handicap). This is often referred to as ‘to win at least a set’ at certain bookmakers. It’s lower risk and could be a more appealing conservative option.
The over +36.5 total games line could be a solid choice if priced above 1.90
TENNIS TIPS UK Club Membership – How it Works
Follow @TennisTipsUKSynopsis: An email service where members receive regular betting picks direct to their inbox. This clearly states the match, specific bet and advised stake. There is a ‘best bet’ which is the highest value selection our team has found across all markets. This is exclusively available through the club membership. Club members should expect to receive 1-2 bets per week on average.
Who picks the advised bets?Tennis Tips UK have a team of analysts built over the past decade. Each has shown a proficiency in beating ATP, Challenger or Grand Slam markets consistently. See an example of the email format members receive below. To make the service more practical to follow we send out picks twelve hours before the scheduled start time on average so it should be feasible to follow regardless of client timezone.
Odds sourced from Pinnacle or Bet365. Match winner (moneyline) markets used so practical to follow with any bookmaker. Those with access to an exchange account are likely to comfortably exceed the recorded profit figures even after commission is deducted so this is highly recommended.How much profit have the picks made overall?
As of late 2025; a £100 bettor has enjoyed profits in excess of £10,000 assuming they backed the quoted price. Please note the image below is updated once annually – see the link below for the most up to date performance figures.
Full tracking is available publicly via a third party verification platform.How do you profit from tennis betting?There is no single ‘one size fits all’ approach. Tennis Tips UK have been fine tuning the selection process since way back in 2013. For a comprehensive insight into our thesis try exploring our tennis betting research articles.
I’m looking for a more hands-on approach, what do you recommend?Some punters prefer to actively select or trade their own markets. The same thesis as before regarding compounding can still apply in this situation but crucially you’ll need to be able to find and back value bets yourself. There are advanced tools that let you identify +EV bets, see where sharp money is betting and apply complex filters to find markets that meet your criteria.
What about responsible gambling?All forms of sports betting, including club picks, need to follow strict responsible gambling principles. The crucial one – never bet with funds that you can’t afford to lose. This means the assigned bankroll needs to be surplus to requirements. Adopting a long term, investment style approach as described previously will put you on the right path but this never replaces the ten golden rules of responsible gambling.
Why join the club?It offers an investment approach to sports betting that allows disciplined members the ability to gradually grow their bankroll over time. Another key benefit of staking a fixed percentage of bankroll per match is that it scales and crucially compounds returns. Here is an explanation of the concept. This means over time your bankroll can grow exponentially and has resulted in multiple long term club members building pots in excess of £1M. Just remember at this level new challenges present themselves such as trying to get such large stakes accepted or matched but there are solutions out there and of course there is also the option to quit and retire.
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