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Home » Free Tips | Tennis Tips UK » Will Michelsen beat Zverev? Australian Open Preview – Saturday 20 Jan 2024 Prediction

Michelsen vs Zverev – Round 3 – Tennis Betting Preview

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After a marathon encounter in the previous round and many challenges off court Zverev could have easily enjoyed a better run up to this third round match against American rising star Michelsen. However the gulf in ability and experience may prove telling and bookmakers certainly expect the higher ranked player to progress given his price as of publication. 

So… Will Michelsen beat Zverev?

Let’s take a look at the probability indicated by available odds from reputable sources. Most bookmakers and exchanges are covering this encounter given the fact its the main draw at a major grand slam event so there is plenty of data to work with and get some meaningful insight.

graphic by tennis tips uk showing the probability of Michelsen beating Zverev

Based on data from sharp bookmakers and exchanges offering Michelsen to win priced in the 5.00-6.00 range and adjusting to factor in the bookmaker edge. Data correct as of publication and subject to change.

So equated into probability (AKA percentage chance) Michelsen has a 17.20% chance of beating Zverev at the Australian Open on Saturday. By the same logic his opponent is most likely to prevail by a significant margin.

Should I bet on Michelsen to beat Zverev today?

Historically players priced in a similar range to Michelsen have actually won far less than the odds derived probability would suggest. This would indicate a match winner bet backing the underdog may not be advisable. However the sharp bookmaker punters have shortened his price from an opening level of 5.85 to 5.65 as of publication. Beating the Pinnacle start price (SP) is the most effective may of profiting long term from tennis betting as its almost exactly correlated with true probability.

Michelsen vs Zverev FAQ

Will Michelsen beat Zverev?

He has a 17.20% chance of winning based on sharp bookmaker insight. Given the factors currently affecting Zverev in his private life it could present a value opportunity but perhaps the games handicap and set handicap options could be lower volatility and consequently more appealing.

Will Michelsen win a set?

The most appealing market could be the Michelsen +2.5 (Set Handicap). This is often referred to as ‘to win at least a set’ at certain bookmakers. It’s lower risk and could be a more appealing conservative option.

Will there be O/U total games for Michelsen vs Zverev?

The over +36.5 total games line could be a solid choice if priced above 1.90zverev vs Michelsen odds screenshot from Oddsportal

Synopsis: An email service where members receive daily betting picks direct to their inbox. This clearly states the match, specific bet and advised stake. There is a daily ‘best bet’ which is the highest value selection our team has found for that day. This is exclusively available through the full access plan.

Who picks the advised bets?

Tennis Tips UK have a team of analysts built over the past decade. Each has shown a proficiency in beating ATP, Challenger or Grand Slam markets consistently. See an example of the email format members receive below. To make the service more practical to follow we send out picks six hours before the scheduled start time on average so it should be feasible to follow regardless of client timezone.

Odds sourced from Betfair Exchange, Pinnacle or Bet365. Match winner or set betting / handicap are the market types used.

How much profit have the picks made overall?

Full tracking is available publicly via a third party verification platform. However there are multiple club members attaining four figure profit sums each month simply by following the advised bets using their bookmaker and exchange accounts.

As of late 2025; a £100 bettor has enjoyed profits in excess of £7000 assuming they backed the quoted price using an exchange with 5% commission deducted. In reality most members pay a lower rate and as such have a higher profit attainment.

How do you profit from tennis betting?

There is no single ‘one size fits all’ approach. Tennis Tips UK have been fine tuning the selection process since way back in 2013. For a comprehensive insight into our thesis try exploring our tennis betting research articles.