Michelsen vs Zverev – Round 3 – Tennis Betting Preview
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After a marathon encounter in the previous round and many challenges off court Zverev could have easily enjoyed a better run up to this third round match against American rising star Michelsen. However the gulf in ability and experience may prove telling and bookmakers certainly expect the higher ranked player to progress given his price as of publication.
So… Will Michelsen beat Zverev?
Let’s take a look at the probability indicated by available odds from reputable sources. Most bookmakers and exchanges are covering this encounter given the fact its the main draw at a major grand slam event so there is plenty of data to work with and get some meaningful insight.
Based on data from sharp bookmakers and exchanges offering Michelsen to win priced in the 5.00-6.00 range and adjusting to factor in the bookmaker edge. Data correct as of publication and subject to change.
So equated into probability (AKA percentage chance) Michelsen has a 17.20% chance of beating Zverev at the Australian Open on Saturday. By the same logic his opponent is most likely to prevail by a significant margin.
Should I bet on Michelsen to beat Zverev today?
Historically players priced in a similar range to Michelsen have actually won far less than the odds derived probability would suggest. This would indicate a match winner bet backing the underdog may not be advisable. However the sharp bookmaker punters have shortened his price from an opening level of 5.85 to 5.65 as of publication. Beating the Pinnacle start price (SP) is the most effective may of profiting long term from tennis betting as its almost exactly correlated with true probability.
Michelsen vs Zverev FAQ
He has a 17.20% chance of winning based on sharp bookmaker insight. Given the factors currently affecting Zverev in his private life it could present a value opportunity but perhaps the games handicap and set handicap options could be lower volatility and consequently more appealing.
The most appealing market could be the Michelsen +2.5 (Set Handicap). This is often referred to as ‘to win at least a set’ at certain bookmakers. It’s lower risk and could be a more appealing conservative option.
The over +36.5 total games line could be a solid choice if priced above 1.90
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