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Michelsen vs Zverev – Round 3 – Tennis Betting Preview
Table of Contents
After a marathon encounter in the previous round and many challenges off court Zverev could have easily enjoyed a better run up to this third round match against American rising star Michelsen. However the gulf in ability and experience may prove telling and bookmakers certainly expect the higher ranked player to progress given his price as of publication.
So… Will Michelsen beat Zverev?
Let’s take a look at the probability indicated by available odds from reputable sources. Most bookmakers and exchanges are covering this encounter given the fact its the main draw at a major grand slam event so there is plenty of data to work with and get some meaningful insight.
Based on data from sharp bookmakers and exchanges offering Michelsen to win priced in the 5.00-6.00 range and adjusting to factor in the bookmaker edge. Data correct as of publication and subject to change.
So equated into probability (AKA percentage chance) Michelsen has a 17.20% chance of beating Zverev at the Australian Open on Saturday. By the same logic his opponent is most likely to prevail by a significant margin.
Should I bet on Michelsen to beat Zverev today?
Historically players priced in a similar range to Michelsen have actually won far less than the odds derived probability would suggest. This would indicate a match winner bet backing the underdog may not be advisable. However the sharp bookmaker punters have shortened his price from an opening level of 5.85 to 5.65 as of publication. Beating the Pinnacle start price (SP) is the most effective may of profiting long term from tennis betting as its almost exactly correlated with true probability.
Michelsen vs Zverev FAQ
He has a 17.20% chance of winning based on sharp bookmaker insight. Given the factors currently affecting Zverev in his private life it could present a value opportunity but perhaps the games handicap and set handicap options could be lower volatility and consequently more appealing.
The most appealing market could be the Michelsen +2.5 (Set Handicap). This is often referred to as ‘to win at least a set’ at certain bookmakers. It’s lower risk and could be a more appealing conservative option.
The over +36.5 total games line could be a solid choice if priced above 1.90
What is the purpose of club membership?
Most members use the advisory to generate profits via bookmaker and/or exchange accounts. For someone staking £100 per match this has yielded thousands in profit even once the annual membership fee is deducted.
Will bookmakers limit my account(s)?
Most likely, yes. Club bets have a proven track record of value (+ EV) and bookmakers are likely to notice this. Short term you’ll be fine but longer term we suggest using betting exchanges or ‘winners welcome’ bookmakers or brokers. That’s why we always quote and record odds from Betfair Exchange for members as that illustrates profits for those who are limited.
How will it work after joining?
Your membership will be confirmed with a personal welcome email. You’ll get 12 months access from a single payment and there is no auto renewal – we’ll simply ask if you wish to continue after the year has elapsed. You should expect an average of two emails per week detailing the advised selection, match, tournament and odds. Simply login to your betting account and place a wager on the selected market. We only use standard match winner bets, often referred to as the moneyline, so coverage is extensive at virtually all betting portals. Have any questions? Please visit the contact us page. Average response time 24h.
Is club membership limited?
Yes, we allow a maximum of ten members to have an active annual membership at any one time. This is to preserve value and market liquidity. Essentially ensuring it’s practical to obtain the advised odds without them disappearing too quickly.
What bankroll is required?
We suggest £10,000 or more ideally although smaller can work. Most members choose to follow our advice of staking 1% per match. This means it automatically adjusts and scales as the total grows and compounds returns. In the above example; the member would have yielded over £3,000 profit but had to pay the membership fee leaving them with a net profit in excess of £2200. Some members have vastly exceeded this by staking higher amounts but please remember to have a long term focus and ensure capacity for successive losses.
What type of bets should I expect?
Always match winner bets covering men’s professional tennis. This includes ATP events, Challenger and Grand Slams. We specialise in high odds underdogs which have yielded the most considerable profits in extensive back testing. Selections with odds of 10/1 (11.00) are not uncommon. We deliver advisory emails at a consistent time with a minimum of six hours before the scheduled start time to ensure plenty of time to get bets placed.
Who is the club open to?
Everyone with a decent bankroll and a long term outlook. We have members from around the world betting in many different currencies and jurisdictions. Tennis Tips UK are based in the United Kingdom, hence the name, but the club is truly global.
How is profit tracked?
For transparency we operate a public spreadsheet. This shows all key metrics such as units profit, ROI, yield and strike rate. We even monitor the Avg Diff CO % for those statisticians amongst you. In a nutshell this measures the implied value by comparing the advised odds with the sharp closing line. 2% is deducted from all recorded profit figures to simulate exchange commission. Just to clarify bets are only added to the spreadsheet post result confirmation to retain exclusivity of access to paid club members.
For winning bets our team also publish profit reports which feature the original email sent to members for additional tracking and verification purposes. This also includes a rating for that specific prediction which gives an insight into how our strategy is optimised over time.
Who picks the bets for club members?
Tennis Tips UK have grown into a small team over the years. Founded way back in 2013 by an odds compiler at a leading EU bookmaker. Since then joined by a quant and business manager. Each one of us lives and breathes tennis but we like to let our results speak for themselves rather than make outlandish personal claims.
Why don’t you bet on your own picks if they are so good?
We do, frequently. The issue surrounds liquidity and limitations. Club members have access to a wide range of liquidity from global sportsbooks and exchanges. We, as individuals, are far more restricted. Typically though we still stake an average of £10k per week on our selections but unfortunately virtually every bookmaker has long since banned us. We should take it a compliment really as a limitation is an endorsement of the profitability of your bets from an often billion pound institution.
Is there a way to reduce the cost of membership?
The fee is set at a level which allows us to fill membership places. If you are a prospective first time club member enter the promo code ‘TTUK10’ during checkout to reduce the cost. Please note this is a one time discount and not available for returning members.
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