Serbian superstar Novak Djokovic has dominated elite men’s tennis for years and his performances so far in 2023 have revealed nothing to suggest this will change in the short term. So from a tennis betting perspective – just back him blindly and watch the money roll in, right? Not so fast. Bookmakers are well aware of his attainment and the odds reflect this. Consequently even if he wins 90% of all matches – the occasional losses will likely eat up all profit and even put punters in the red overall. In this article we’ll analyse whether there is a solution by looking at The best method to profit backing Novak Djokovic.
Did you know? Tennis Tips UK have an exclusive community where tennis tipsters and subscribers come together to share their knowledge. Punters receive access to the bets that sharp tipsters are backing via email. In exchange the highest performing tipsters receive all the membership fee’s.
Robert Fraser, Founder of Tennis Tips UK in 2013
Table of Contents
- The Problem: Terrible Match Winner Odds
- ‘Big Name Bias’ – Large Event Betting Volume
- The Solution: Asian Handicap Markets
The Problem: Terrible Match Winner Odds
Novak Djokovic Odds – Example from the Australian Open 2023 – Even in the later stages (in this case a semifinal) it’s still common to find the world number five priced around or below 1/10 (1.10). This suggests a win probability of over 90.90% and would require a staggering minimum strike rate to profit long term over a large sample size.
‘Big Name Bias’ – Large Event Betting Volume
For the biggest events in the tennis calendar – money funnels in from punters who don’t normally consider tennis. This is due to media coverage, tournament specific promotions and more recognisable names on sportsbooks. These individuals are highly likely to side with players like Novak Djokovic which further drives down or ‘shortens’ his price. This makes it even more challenging to profit long term.
The Solution: Asian Handicap Markets
Novice punters typically stick with the standard 1×2 match winner market which has been our focus so far in this article. However the range of asian handicap markets are far more likely to offer value. These are available nowadays at almost all bookmakers and exchanges (liquidity could be an issue for the later)
Time needed: 10 minutes
How to find value when betting on Novak Djokovic
- Find an Odds Comparison Portal (e.g Oddsportal or Oddschecker)
Search for ‘Novak Djokovic’ and load the list of available markets and odds.
- Select the ‘Asian Handicap’ tab
This should display set and games handicap markets
- Focus on the odds from ‘Pinnacle’
This bookmaker has the most accurate odds in terms of reflecting probability. This is especially true near to the match start time. Look for discrepancies between their price and other bookmakers. If you can beat the Pinnacle line odds for Novak Djokovic in the asian handicap market by a significant margin then this is likely to be a value bet and yield profit long term.
There is significant data and research to suggest that Pinnacle’s closing line has a very close correlation with that outcomes probability. So with all tennis betting, whether looking to back Novak Djokovic specifically or not, trying to get odds elsewhere above this level is an intelligent goal and likely to make you a ‘sharp bettor’ who will have an edge or positive expected value long term.
Very frequently. By wary against lower ranked opponents though where he has lost individual sets on a somewhat common timetable. Focus on price (odds) rather than opinion.
if you follow the steps above correctly then most likely yes when betting with the major players. Take it as a compliment it means they have assessed you as a profitable customer. There are still options for people in this situation such as bet brokers to keep getting your bets on.
TENNIS TIPS UK CLUB MEMBERSHIP – How it Works
Follow @TennisTipsUKSynopsis: An email service where members receive regular betting picks direct to their inbox. This clearly states the match, specific bet and advised stake. There is no subscription so simply stay as long as you want. The number of members is capped so sometimes a waiting list is activated. All advisory of this type is exclusive to paid members.
Who picks the advised bets?Tennis Tips UK have a team of analysts built over the past decade. Each has shown a proficiency in beating ATP, Challenger or Grand Slam markets consistently. See an example of the email format members receive below.
How much profit have the picks made overall?Full tracking is available publicly via a third party verification platform. However there are multiple club members attaining four figure profit sums each month simply by following the advised bets using their bookmaker and exchange accounts.
As of late 2024; a £100 bettor has enjoyed profits in excess of £4230 assuming they backed the quoted price using an exchange with 5% commission deducted. In reality most club members pay a lower rate and as such have a higher profit attainment.How can I get access?Club membership is currently open to applications. Subscribers can expect to receive picks most days that the primary tours are active. These will be match winner or games handicap bets priced at 2.00 or above covering ATP, Challenger or Grand Slam matches.
How do you profit from tennis betting?There is no single ‘one size fits all’ approach. Tennis Tips UK have been fine tuning the selection process since way back in 2013. For a comprehensive insight into our thesis try exploring our tennis betting research articles.
Are there any third party tipsters you recommend?There is a tipster network that has received positive comments from most of our members. It’s by no means perfect. There are many tipsters there you should avoid but some offering genuine value. Most rely on bookmaker prices that will limit you quickly though so try and instead focus on the services that quote exchange prices.
Looking to join the club? – 8/10 Places Reserved
Tennis Tips UK provide multiple picks per week specialising in the ATP tour. These are reserved exclusively for club members who receive an email notification containing the picks. The results history of all this advisory is recorded here. Staking £100 per match has yielded a total profit of £4730 as of August 2024. This figure factors in a 5% exchange commission deduction.
Full access to all picks is reserved to a maximum of 10 club members. There is an option to purchase 1 month membership with no recurring payment or subscription element. Many payment methods are accepted including PayPal. This link will only remain active when places are available so if this is inactive please contact our team instead and request to be added to the waiting list.
Club membership is designed for those looking to profit from tennis markets over the long term. Having access to exchange and bookmakers without account limits is preferable. Bankroll management and discipline are both essential. Please do not consider the club if looking for short term gains and stick to the principles of responsible gambling regardless.
