Serbian superstar Novak Djokovic has dominated elite men’s tennis for years and his performances so far in 2023 have revealed nothing to suggest this will change in the short term. So from a tennis betting perspective – just back him blindly and watch the money roll in, right? Not so fast. Bookmakers are well aware of his attainment and the odds reflect this. Consequently even if he wins 90% of all matches – the occasional losses will likely eat up all profit and even put punters in the red overall. In this article we’ll analyse whether there is a solution by looking at The best method to profit backing Novak Djokovic.
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Table of Contents
- The Problem: Terrible Match Winner Odds
- ‘Big Name Bias’ – Large Event Betting Volume
- The Solution: Asian Handicap Markets
The Problem: Terrible Match Winner Odds
Novak Djokovic Odds – Example from the Australian Open 2023 – Even in the later stages (in this case a semifinal) it’s still common to find the world number five priced around or below 1/10 (1.10). This suggests a win probability of over 90.90% and would require a staggering minimum strike rate to profit long term over a large sample size.
‘Big Name Bias’ – Large Event Betting Volume
For the biggest events in the tennis calendar – money funnels in from punters who don’t normally consider tennis. This is due to media coverage, tournament specific promotions and more recognisable names on sportsbooks. These individuals are highly likely to side with players like Novak Djokovic which further drives down or ‘shortens’ his price. This makes it even more challenging to profit long term.
The Solution: Asian Handicap Markets
Novice punters typically stick with the standard 1×2 match winner market which has been our focus so far in this article. However the range of asian handicap markets are far more likely to offer value. These are available nowadays at almost all bookmakers and exchanges (liquidity could be an issue for the later)
Time needed: 10 minutes
How to find value when betting on Novak Djokovic
- Find an Odds Comparison Portal (e.g Oddsportal or Oddschecker)
Search for ‘Novak Djokovic’ and load the list of available markets and odds.
- Select the ‘Asian Handicap’ tab
This should display set and games handicap markets
- Focus on the odds from ‘Pinnacle’
This bookmaker has the most accurate odds in terms of reflecting probability. This is especially true near to the match start time. Look for discrepancies between their price and other bookmakers. If you can beat the Pinnacle line odds for Novak Djokovic in the asian handicap market by a significant margin then this is likely to be a value bet and yield profit long term.
There is significant data and research to suggest that Pinnacle’s closing line has a very close correlation with that outcomes probability. So with all tennis betting, whether looking to back Novak Djokovic specifically or not, trying to get odds elsewhere above this level is an intelligent goal and likely to make you a ‘sharp bettor’ who will have an edge or positive expected value long term.
Very frequently. By wary against lower ranked opponents though where he has lost individual sets on a somewhat common timetable. Focus on price (odds) rather than opinion.
if you follow the steps above correctly then most likely yes when betting with the major players. Take it as a compliment it means they have assessed you as a profitable customer. There are still options for people in this situation such as bet brokers to keep getting your bets on.
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