Tennis Tips UK provide multiple picks per week specialising in the ATP tour. These are reserved exclusively for club members who receive a daily email notification containing the picks. The results history of all this advisory is recorded here. Staking £100 per match has yielded a total profit of £4130 as of July 2024.
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Serbian superstar Novak Djokovic has dominated elite men’s tennis for years and his performances so far in 2023 have revealed nothing to suggest this will change in the short term. So from a tennis betting perspective – just back him blindly and watch the money roll in, right? Not so fast. Bookmakers are well aware of his attainment and the odds reflect this. Consequently even if he wins 90% of all matches – the occasional losses will likely eat up all profit and even put punters in the red overall. In this article we’ll analyse whether there is a solution by looking at The best method to profit backing Novak Djokovic.
Did you know? Tennis Tips UK have an exclusive community where tennis tipsters and subscribers come together to share their knowledge. Punters receive access to the bets that sharp tipsters are backing via email. In exchange the highest performing tipsters receive all the membership fee’s.
Robert Fraser, Founder of Tennis Tips UK in 2013
Table of Contents
- The Problem: Terrible Match Winner Odds
- ‘Big Name Bias’ – Large Event Betting Volume
- The Solution: Asian Handicap Markets
The Problem: Terrible Match Winner Odds
Novak Djokovic Odds – Example from the Australian Open 2023 – Even in the later stages (in this case a semifinal) it’s still common to find the world number five priced around or below 1/10 (1.10). This suggests a win probability of over 90.90% and would require a staggering minimum strike rate to profit long term over a large sample size.
‘Big Name Bias’ – Large Event Betting Volume
For the biggest events in the tennis calendar – money funnels in from punters who don’t normally consider tennis. This is due to media coverage, tournament specific promotions and more recognisable names on sportsbooks. These individuals are highly likely to side with players like Novak Djokovic which further drives down or ‘shortens’ his price. This makes it even more challenging to profit long term.
The Solution: Asian Handicap Markets
Novice punters typically stick with the standard 1×2 match winner market which has been our focus so far in this article. However the range of asian handicap markets are far more likely to offer value. These are available nowadays at almost all bookmakers and exchanges (liquidity could be an issue for the later)
Time needed: 10 minutes
How to find value when betting on Novak Djokovic
- Find an Odds Comparison Portal (e.g Oddsportal or Oddschecker)
Search for ‘Novak Djokovic’ and load the list of available markets and odds.
- Select the ‘Asian Handicap’ tab
This should display set and games handicap markets
- Focus on the odds from ‘Pinnacle’
This bookmaker has the most accurate odds in terms of reflecting probability. This is especially true near to the match start time. Look for discrepancies between their price and other bookmakers. If you can beat the Pinnacle line odds for Novak Djokovic in the asian handicap market by a significant margin then this is likely to be a value bet and yield profit long term.
There is significant data and research to suggest that Pinnacle’s closing line has a very close correlation with that outcomes probability. So with all tennis betting, whether looking to back Novak Djokovic specifically or not, trying to get odds elsewhere above this level is an intelligent goal and likely to make you a ‘sharp bettor’ who will have an edge or positive expected value long term.
Very frequently. By wary against lower ranked opponents though where he has lost individual sets on a somewhat common timetable. Focus on price (odds) rather than opinion.
if you follow the steps above correctly then most likely yes when betting with the major players. Take it as a compliment it means they have assessed you as a profitable customer. There are still options for people in this situation such as bet brokers to keep getting your bets on.
What is the TENNIS TIPS UK CLUB?
Subscription service for tennis bettors to receive advisory direct to their inbox. This specifies the match, which bet and the recommended stake. Following these recommended picks has yielded a return in excess of 20% as of early 2024.
Who picks the advised bets?Tennis Tips UK have a team of analysts built over the past decade. Each has shown a proficiency in beating ATP, Challenger or Grand Slam markets consistently.
How much profit have the picks made overall?Full tracking is available publicly via a third party verification platform. However there are multiple club members attaining four figure profit sums each month simply by following the advised bets using their bookmaker and exchange accounts.
How can I get access?Club membership is currently open to applications. Subscribers can expect to receive picks most days that the primary tours are active. These will be match winner or games handicap bets priced at 2.00 or above covering ATP, Challenger or Grand Slam matches.
Do you offer any FREE PICKS?Unfortunately not as the advisory must be kept private for club subscribers so they can easily obtain the quoted prices. Based on feedback from our community of external services we can recommend these free email betting tips for those with smaller bankrolls.
Club P/L Report: Sunday 21st July
$1000 advised backing Halys to beat Berrettini at odds of 4.30 on Betfair Exchange. Outcome was a straight sets win.
-$1000 and failed to beat closing odds #ATPGstaad
Full P/L Report: https://tennis-tips.co.uk/profit-loss-reports/2024/07/21/sunday-21st-july-club-p-l-report/
Club P/L Report: Friday 19th July
$1000 advised backing Martinez to beat Cerundolo at odds of 3.60 on Betfair Exchange. Outcome was a three set win.
+$3470 after commission deduction but failed to beat closing odds #HamburgOpen
Full P/L Report: https://tennis-tips.co.uk/profit-loss-reports/2024/07/19/friday-19th-july-club-p-l-report/
Club P/L Report: Thursday 18 July
$1000 advised backing Boyer to beat Tung-Lin Wu at odds of 2.06 on Betfair Exchange. Outcome was a three set win for the later.
-$1000 but beat closing odds #ChallengerGranby
Full P/L Report: https://tennis-tips.co.uk/tennis-betting-tips/2024/07/18/thursday-18th-july-club-report/
Club P/L Report: Wednesday 17 July
$1000 advised backing Tirante to beat Rublev at odds of 5.80 on Betfair Exchange. Outcome was a three set win.
+$5560 but failed to beat closing odds #SwedishOpen
Full History & Subscription details: http://tennis-tips.co.uk/profit-history/
Club P/L Report: Tuesday 16 July
+4990 and beat closing odds #ChallengerTour
Subscription details: https://tennis-tips.co.uk/profit-history/
Club P/L Report: Tuesday 16th July 2024
-$1000 and failed to beat closing odds #ATPHamburg
Free Pick for Tuesday 16th July
ATP Hamburg R1
A Fils vs J Munar
J Munar (Match Winner)
1 unit @ 2.50 via Betfair Exchange
Full reasoning: https://tennis-tips.co.uk/free-tips/2024/07/15/free-pick-for-tuesday-16th-july-fils-vs-munar-prediction-for-atp-hamburg-r1-betting-tips/
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