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Home » Free Tips | Tennis Tips UK » Zverev vs Alcaraz – Who will win this QF matchup? Australian Open 2024 Prediction

Data Driven Insight – Zverev vs Alcaraz Prediction | Wednesday 24 Jan 2024

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Zverev progressed through a marathon encounter against Norrie which our analysts correctly predicted would be a lengthy encounter which the German would most likely edge. This quarterfinal matchup will see him face a much tougher encounter against multiple Grand Slam champion Alcaraz. Let’s explore this encounter in more detail from a tennis betting perspective and conclude with our prediction for this Australian Open QF encounter.

The Argument for… Zverev

Our first reaction to the odds for Zverev was surprise as he is projected to win this matchup in just 20% of cases based on odds in the 5.00 range (which is correct as of publication). The justification for this is more of a reflection of Alcaraz’s rise and surprising consistency given his young age – which we’ll address in detail in the next section – rather than a lack of faith in Zverev’s personal ability.

zverev match win rate in 2024 created by Tennis Tips UK

Zverev has achieved a 8-1 match win rate so far in 2024. This includes his progress so far at the Australian Open and his performances at the United Cup.

A significant part of the justification backing Zverev is the appealing risk to reward ratio. We agree with the thesis that he should be an underdog but the current price in the 4.50-5.00 range is appealing.

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The Argument for… Alcaraz

Alcaraz has established himself as possibly the finest player on the tour (excluding world number one Djokovic although he has even registered a Grand Slam win over him too). Despite his young age its the consistency that’s truly remarkable. Yes, we suffered a bump in the road towards the later stages of 2023 but he looks to have returned to his peak based on evidence presented so far this year.

alcaraz sets lost infographic by Tennis Tips UK

Alcaraz has dropped just a single set so far in Melbourne. This is impressive from an attainment perspective but also from a fatigue viewpoint. He has a very low total court time at this event whereas Zverev has had to endure multiple five set encounters. This could have a cumulative impact for the German and give Alcaraz a further advantage.

Zverev vs Alcaraz Prediction – Punter FAQ

Will Zverev beat Alcaraz?

As calculated previously; 20% is the estimated probability of this outcome. So needless to say keep the stake modest if you do choose to back this money line market. The most probable outcome is an Alcaraz win but the odds reflect this leading to little value either way.

Can Zverev win despite his odds?

Historically players priced in a similar range to Zverev have actually performed very poorly with a significant negative ROI. This is derived from a large data set.

What is your main Zverev vs Alcaraz prediction?

Tennis Tips UK reserve their best value selections for premium subscribers but our general consensus is that this match is priced relatively efficiently meaning there is little to find appealing from a tennis betting standpoint. This is true of the match winner market but the alternative betting opportunities could yield far better risk to reward propositions.

So that concludes our Zverev vs Alcaraz Prediction. To give a quick synopsis of my main takeaways – as with most grand slam matches the probability and odds available line by efficiently so there is limited value. The price for Zverev has drifted from an opening level of 4.50 to around 5.00 at sharp bookmakers as of publication. Following the flow of money can be a shrewd move so perhaps Alcaraz is worth looking at particularly with a focus on the games handicap market to obtain odds close to EVENS (2.00)

Robert, Tennis Tips UK Analyst – Ask me a question (I’ll respond within 24 hours)
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Tennis Tips UK Club – Results Synopsis – Updated Feb 2025

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TENNIS TIPS UK CLUB MEMBERSHIP – How it Works

Synopsis: An email service where members receive regular betting picks direct to their inbox. This clearly states the match, specific bet and advised stake. There is no subscription so simply stay as long as you want. The number of members is capped so sometimes a waiting list is activated. All advisory of this type is exclusive to paid members.

Who picks the advised bets?

Tennis Tips UK have a team of analysts built over the past decade. Each has shown a proficiency in beating ATP, Challenger or Grand Slam markets consistently. See an example of the email format members receive below.

How much profit have the picks made overall?

Full tracking is available publicly via a third party verification platform. However there are multiple club members attaining four figure profit sums each month simply by following the advised bets using their bookmaker and exchange accounts.

As of late 2024; a £100 bettor has enjoyed profits in excess of £4230 assuming they backed the quoted price using an exchange with 5% commission deducted. In reality most club members pay a lower rate and as such have a higher profit attainment.

How can I get access?

Club membership is currently open to applications. Subscribers can expect to receive picks most days that the primary tours are active. These will be match winner or games handicap bets priced at 2.00 or above covering ATP, Challenger or Grand Slam matches.

How do you profit from tennis betting?

There is no single ‘one size fits all’ approach. Tennis Tips UK have been fine tuning the selection process since way back in 2013. For a comprehensive insight into our thesis try exploring our tennis betting research articles.

Are there any third party tipsters you recommend?

There is a tipster network that has received positive comments from most of our members. It’s by no means perfect. There are many tipsters there you should avoid but some offering genuine value. Most rely on bookmaker prices that will limit you quickly though so try and instead focus on the services that quote exchange prices.

Looking to join the club? – 8/10 Places Reserved

Tennis Tips UK provide multiple picks per week specialising in the ATP tour. These are reserved exclusively for club members who receive an email notification containing the picks. The results history of all this advisory is recorded here. Staking £100 per match has yielded a total profit of £4730 as of August 2024. This figure factors in a 5% exchange commission deduction.

Full access to all picks is reserved to a maximum of 10 club members. There is an option to purchase 1 month membership with no recurring payment or subscription element. Many payment methods are accepted including PayPal. This link will only remain active when places are available so if this is inactive please contact our team instead and request to be added to the waiting list.

Club membership is designed for those looking to profit from tennis markets over the long term. Having access to exchange and bookmakers without account limits is preferable. Bankroll management and discipline are both essential. Please do not consider the club if looking for short term gains and stick to the principles of responsible gambling regardless.


TopTennisTips.com – Find Value Bets using Artificial Intelligence models. You can fine-tune the predictive data you get based on Probability and Expected Value using their Backtest tool. Subscribers use this to beat bookmakers and profit. Read our full review

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