Can I see an example of exactly what I would receive in my inbox as a club member?
This was a real email sent to club members. It may look a little intimidating initially but the selection in bold is the only essential piece of information to profit. We operate a simple staking strategy of 1 unit = 1% total bankroll. Each email consists of the tournament, match, selection, advised stake, minimum odds and projected win probability. This format will always be followed for consistency.
Zverev progressed through a marathon encounter against Norrie which our analysts correctly predicted would be a lengthy encounter which the German would most likely edge. This quarterfinal matchup will see him face a much tougher encounter against multiple Grand Slam champion Alcaraz. Let’s explore this encounter in more detail from a tennis betting perspective and conclude with our prediction for this Australian Open QF encounter.
The Argument for… Zverev
Our first reaction to the odds for Zverev was surprise as he is projected to win this matchup in just 20% of cases based on odds in the 5.00 range (which is correct as of publication). The justification for this is more of a reflection of Alcaraz’s rise and surprising consistency given his young age – which we’ll address in detail in the next section – rather than a lack of faith in Zverev’s personal ability.
Zverev has achieved a 8-1 match win rate so far in 2024. This includes his progress so far at the Australian Open and his performances at the United Cup.
A significant part of the justification backing Zverev is the appealing risk to reward ratio. We agree with the thesis that he should be an underdog but the current price in the 4.50-5.00 range is appealing.
2-3 bets per week with a historical yield in excess of 36.50% – View Full History
The Argument for… Alcaraz
Alcaraz has established himself as possibly the finest player on the tour (excluding world number one Djokovic although he has even registered a Grand Slam win over him too). Despite his young age its the consistency that’s truly remarkable. Yes, we suffered a bump in the road towards the later stages of 2023 but he looks to have returned to his peak based on evidence presented so far this year.
Alcaraz has dropped just a single set so far in Melbourne. This is impressive from an attainment perspective but also from a fatigue viewpoint. He has a very low total court time at this event whereas Zverev has had to endure multiple five set encounters. This could have a cumulative impact for the German and give Alcaraz a further advantage.
Zverev vs Alcaraz Prediction – Punter FAQ
Will Zverev beat Alcaraz?
As calculated previously; 20% is the estimated probability of this outcome. So needless to say keep the stake modest if you do choose to back this money line market. The most probable outcome is an Alcaraz win but the odds reflect this leading to little value either way.
Can Zverev win despite his odds?
Historically players priced in a similar range to Zverev have actually performed very poorly with a significant negative ROI. This is derived from a large data set.
What is your main Zverev vs Alcaraz prediction?
Tennis Tips UK reserve their best value selections for premium subscribers but our general consensus is that this match is priced relatively efficiently meaning there is little to find appealing from a tennis betting standpoint. This is true of the match winner market but the alternative betting opportunities could yield far better risk to reward propositions.
So that concludes our Zverev vs Alcaraz Prediction. To give a quick synopsis of my main takeaways – as with most grand slam matches the probability and odds available line by efficiently so there is limited value. The price for Zverev has drifted from an opening level of 4.50 to around 5.00 at sharp bookmakers as of publication. Following the flow of money can be a shrewd move so perhaps Alcaraz is worth looking at particularly with a focus on the games handicap market to obtain odds close to EVENS (2.00)
Robert, Tennis Tips UK Analyst – Ask me a question (I’ll respond within 24 hours)
Most members use the advisory to generate profits via bookmaker and/or exchange accounts. For someone staking £100 per match this has yielded thousands in profit even once the annual membership fee is deducted.
Will bookmakers limit my account(s)?
Most likely, yes. Club bets have a proven track record of value (+ EV) and bookmakers are likely to notice this. Short term you’ll be fine but longer term we suggest using betting exchanges or ‘winners welcome’ bookmakers or brokers. That’s why we always quote and record odds from Betfair Exchange for members as that illustrates profits for those who are limited.
How will it work after joining?
Your membership will be confirmed with a personal welcome email. You’ll get 12 months access from a single payment and there is no auto renewal – we’ll simply ask if you wish to continue after the year has elapsed. You should expect an average of two emails per week detailing the advised selection, match, tournament and odds. Simply login to your betting account and place a wager on the selected market. We only use standard match winner bets, often referred to as the moneyline, so coverage is extensive at virtually all betting portals. Have any questions? Please visit the contact us page. Average response time 24h.
Is club membership limited?
Yes, we allow a maximum of ten members to have an active annual membership at any one time. This is to preserve value and market liquidity. Essentially ensuring it’s practical to obtain the advised odds without them disappearing too quickly.
What bankroll is required?
We suggest £10,000 or more ideally although smaller can work. Most members choose to follow our advice of staking 1% per match. This means it automatically adjusts and scales as the total grows and compounds returns. In the above example; the member would have yielded over £3,000 profit but had to pay the membership fee leaving them with a net profit in excess of £2200. Some members have vastly exceeded this by staking higher amounts but please remember to have a long term focus and ensure capacity for successive losses.
What type of bets should I expect?
Always match winner bets covering men’s professional tennis. This includes ATP events, Challenger and Grand Slams. We specialise in high odds underdogs which have yielded the most considerable profits in extensive back testing. Selections with odds of 10/1 (11.00) are not uncommon. We deliver advisory emails at a consistent time with a minimum of six hours before the scheduled start time to ensure plenty of time to get bets placed.
Who is the club open to?
Everyone with a decent bankroll and a long term outlook. We have members from around the world betting in many different currencies and jurisdictions. Tennis Tips UK are based in the United Kingdom, hence the name, but the club is truly global.
How is profit tracked?
For transparency we operate a public spreadsheet. This shows all key metrics such as units profit, ROI, yield and strike rate. We even monitor the Avg Diff CO % for those statisticians amongst you. In a nutshell this measures the implied value by comparing the advised odds with the sharp closing line. 2% is deducted from all recorded profit figures to simulate exchange commission. Just to clarify bets are only added to the spreadsheet post result confirmation to retain exclusivity of access to paid club members.
For winning bets our team also publish profit reports which feature the original email sent to members for additional tracking and verification purposes. This also includes a rating for that specific prediction which gives an insight into how our strategy is optimised over time.
Who picks the bets for club members?
Tennis Tips UK have grown into a small team over the years. Founded way back in 2013 by an odds compiler at a leading EU bookmaker. Since then joined by a quant and business manager. Each one of us lives and breathes tennis but we like to let our results speak for themselves rather than make outlandish personal claims.
Why don’t you bet on your own picks if they are so good?
We do, frequently. The issue surrounds liquidity and limitations. Club members have access to a wide range of liquidity from global sportsbooks and exchanges. We, as individuals, are far more restricted. Typically though we still stake an average of £10k per week on our selections but unfortunately virtually every bookmaker has long since banned us. We should take it a compliment really as a limitation is an endorsement of the profitability of your bets from an often billion pound institution.
Is there a way to reduce the cost of membership?
The fee is set at a level which allows us to fill membership places. If you are a prospective first time club member enter the promo code ‘TTUK10’ during checkout to reduce the cost. Please note this is a one time discount and not available for returning members.
Our objective is to consolidate the highest ROI tennis analysts, tipsters and individuals we have discovered & verified over the past decade into a single subscription service. It’s also to educate those looking to understand tennis betting from a profitable perspective.
