Zverev progressed through a marathon encounter against Norrie which our analysts correctly predicted would be a lengthy encounter which the German would most likely edge. This quarterfinal matchup will see him face a much tougher encounter against multiple Grand Slam champion Alcaraz. Let’s explore this encounter in more detail from a tennis betting perspective and conclude with our prediction for this Australian Open QF encounter.
The Argument for… Zverev
Our first reaction to the odds for Zverev was surprise as he is projected to win this matchup in just 20% of cases based on odds in the 5.00 range (which is correct as of publication). The justification for this is more of a reflection of Alcaraz’s rise and surprising consistency given his young age – which we’ll address in detail in the next section – rather than a lack of faith in Zverev’s personal ability.
Zverev has achieved a 8-1 match win rate so far in 2024. This includes his progress so far at the Australian Open and his performances at the United Cup.
A significant part of the justification backing Zverev is the appealing risk to reward ratio. We agree with the thesis that he should be an underdog but the current price in the 4.50-5.00 range is appealing.
2-3 bets per week with a historical yield in excess of 36.50% – View Full History
The Argument for… Alcaraz
Alcaraz has established himself as possibly the finest player on the tour (excluding world number one Djokovic although he has even registered a Grand Slam win over him too). Despite his young age its the consistency that’s truly remarkable. Yes, we suffered a bump in the road towards the later stages of 2023 but he looks to have returned to his peak based on evidence presented so far this year.
Alcaraz has dropped just a single set so far in Melbourne. This is impressive from an attainment perspective but also from a fatigue viewpoint. He has a very low total court time at this event whereas Zverev has had to endure multiple five set encounters. This could have a cumulative impact for the German and give Alcaraz a further advantage.
Zverev vs Alcaraz Prediction – Punter FAQ
Will Zverev beat Alcaraz?
As calculated previously; 20% is the estimated probability of this outcome. So needless to say keep the stake modest if you do choose to back this money line market. The most probable outcome is an Alcaraz win but the odds reflect this leading to little value either way.
Can Zverev win despite his odds?
Historically players priced in a similar range to Zverev have actually performed very poorly with a significant negative ROI. This is derived from a large data set.
What is your main Zverev vs Alcaraz prediction?
Tennis Tips UK reserve their best value selections for premium subscribers but our general consensus is that this match is priced relatively efficiently meaning there is little to find appealing from a tennis betting standpoint. This is true of the match winner market but the alternative betting opportunities could yield far better risk to reward propositions.
So that concludes our Zverev vs Alcaraz Prediction. To give a quick synopsis of my main takeaways – as with most grand slam matches the probability and odds available line by efficiently so there is limited value. The price for Zverev has drifted from an opening level of 4.50 to around 5.00 at sharp bookmakers as of publication. Following the flow of money can be a shrewd move so perhaps Alcaraz is worth looking at particularly with a focus on the games handicap market to obtain odds close to EVENS (2.00)
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Tennis Tips UK provide multiple picks per week specialising in the ATP tour. These are reserved exclusively for club members who receive an email notification containing the picks. The results history of all this advisory is recorded here. Staking £100 per match has yielded a total profit of £4730 as of August 2024. This figure factors in a 5% exchange commission deduction.
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BettingGods.com – Far from perfect but certainly one of the best when it comes to transparency. Their tipsters quoted results in terms of profit and yield are accurate and the odds quoted obtainable for the average punter. There are often trials and discounts available so always try and use them where possible. It’s also good to know they offer a no questions asked refund policy.
TopTennisTips.com – A pioneer in terms of using data driven models and AI to profit from tennis betting. Packages are on the expensive side though so you’ll need a relatively large initial bankroll to make it viable. Many of the Tennis Tips UK club members have reported significant profits though so worth a look.
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