Monte Carlo Masters – Sinner a more likely winner than Djokovic?
The 2024 iteration of one of the tennis calendars most prestigious events is underway. The Monte Carlo Masters always attracts the games biggest names but this year there is the omission of clay court legend Rafael Nadal. However there are plenty of competitors to make up for this including world number one Novak Djokovic and the inform Italian Jannik Sinner fresh from winning multiple titles this year already.
From a tennis betting perspective – where is the value this year at ATP Monte Carlo? As always our analysts have focused their event preview on probability and any discrepancies between this value and the odds on offer across bookmaker and exchanges.
To make this insight as digestible as possible it is prevented in an FAQ (frequently asked questions) format with responses to real questions received from site visitors looking to bet on the Monte Carlo Masters. Tennis Tips UK have published a more general guide on profiting from tennis betting in our resources centre for beginners looking for a more surface level synopsis of how betting markets work.
Table of Contents
- Monte Carlo Masters – Sinner a more likely winner than Djokovic?
- ATP Monte Carlo 2024 Tennis Betting Preview
ATP Monte Carlo 2024 Tennis Betting Preview
Monte Carlo Masters Preview – FAQ
The basis of this theory is that, as of publication, Jannik Sinner is priced at 3.05 on exchanges whereas Novak Djokovic is marginally higher. This is confirmation that the Italian is a more probable winner but not be a significant amount. In terms of probability it’s roughly 32% for the former and 30% for the later. So a winner from the remainder of the draw (which includes stars such as Zverev, Medvedev & Ruud) is approximately 38% which is a more intelligent place to focus is seeking value.
The site was founded back in 2013 and has delivered profit each year since. There have been many changes over the years but today there is a single subscription service for the best value bets. Unfortunately membership is limited and all places are currently taken but you are welcome to join our waiting list to receive an invitation should there be a place available in the future.
The main ingredient to turn from a recreational punter to a successful bettor is discipline. It’s essential to adopt an investment style approach. Risk a small percentage of total bankroll per match and focus on getting bets placed/matched at a value price.
Have a brief look at the graphic references below. It illustrates the point that over a small number of bets luck is the key even with value bets (due to variance). However if you stay consistent long term and keep backing bets methodically the chances of losing collapse to near zero. It’s a virtual certainty you’ll be in profit as the odds work in your favour.
Never back a single pick NEEDING it to win. Of course you will WANT it to win but these are two very different things. Risk a small amount per match as anything can happen over a few sets. Have faith that value bets will deliver long term and manage bankroll responsibly. 
In the wider context of tennis overall its slow as a consequence of the fact its a clay court. This typically means longer average points and a proclivity towards favourites persevering. In terms of the Monte Carlo Masters surface compared to other events on the ‘red dirt’ data suggests its marginally faster. Still the thesis of steering clear of underdogs stands firm in our analysts view.
