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ATP Challenger Concepcion Betting Preview
The Challenger 50 event hosted in the South American haven of Chile features many rising stars for its 2024 iteration. It should at the very least offer some entertainment value but could also be appealing for the informed tennis bettor.
As always with events like this, the match outcomes are volatile and variance is in full swing. Bookmakers often apply larger than average margins (vs higher level ATP events) for this reason. This makes profiting more challenging but certainly not impossible.
So, without further ado, let’s take a deep dive into this event with the analyst data backed Challenger Concepcion Betting Preview and ultimately answer the question – Who is the smart money backing in Chile? (and who could be a wise pick for someone conversative or at the other end of the spectrum very ambitious)
Fresh from correctly highlighting Casper Ruud as the ‘pick for value seekers’ at ATP Madrid – can the analysts provide further profitable insight for the informationed tennis bettor?
Table of Contents
Tennis Tips UK frequently gather feedback on tipster services from our thousands of subscribers. To be honest most of it focuses on the ever growing list of services to avoid but occasionally there is one that stands out for the right reasons. See the button below for the service that has gained the most positive praise recently.
Court Surface Speed & Conditions
The event is hosted in Concepción which is located in South Chile. The forecast for this week is scattered showers with relatively modest temperate ranging between 15-17 degrees. Given this and the fact the event is played on clay – this event will suit players who prefer slower play vs the fast paced.
The Favourite: Genaro Alberto Olivieri
As of publication, no bookmakers or exchanges are offering Challenger Concepcion Outright winner markets, so Tennis Tips UK makes this assumption based on internal data modelling. To clarify Tennis Tips UK analysts would not expect any dominating favourite for this event but the Argentine Genaro Alberto Olivieri would be one of the frontrunners for tennis bettors looking for a probable winner.
Olivieri should be priced around 3.80-3.90 to win the Challenger Concepcion event outright based on Tennis Tips UK data modelling.
This equates to a win probability of approximately 1/4 which is as close as a favourite that you are likely to find for a volatile event like this with a relatively large field of competitors.
He has a 59.70% career match win rate on clay (Data Source: Tennis Explorer)
The Smart Money: Renzo Olivo
At first glance this may be difficult to understand given his erratic form and the fact he has never progressed further than the first round in two previous attempts in the Challenger Concepcion tournament. However there are significant flows of backing for the Argentine in his first round encounter against a potentially challenging opponent which is often a good indicator.
Renzo Olivo should be priced around 5.30-5.40 to win the Challenger Concepcion event outright based on Tennis Tips UK data modelling.
The first round encounter against Dutra da Silva Daniel could turn into a battle but if he can progress his prospects for the event overall look healthy.
The Long Shot: Cid Subervi Roberto
Relatively unknown apart from the most hardcore tennis fans – the Dominican has highly impressive clay court attainment metrics in 2024 so far and could make a surprise run to the later stages.
Tennis Tips UK data modelling has priced Roberto Cid Subervi around 17.00-18.00 to win the Challenger Concepcion event outright.
Clearly this is a highly volatile selection but could be perfect for those seeking a major payout from a conservative stake.
FAQ: Challenger Concepcion Betting
As this is smaller event not all bookmakers and exchanges will release odds at all. However, it is likely that a few will after the conclusion of the qualification process, which will happen in a few days. The main event runs 22-28 Apr, 2024.
Club membership gives access to 1-2 predictions per week that are exclusively available via that service. These are the markets that offer the best margin of value based on extensive research and data driven insight.
Full information is available for this service on the join now page.
Tennis Tips UK frequently gather feedback on tipster services from thousands of subscribers. To be honest most of it focuses on the ever growing list of services to avoid but occasionally there are some that stand out for the right reasons like these tipsters.
Renzo Olivo is likely to offer the best value in terms of risk to reward ratio. The volatility of this selection will be very high however so stakes should be conservative.
The draw is full of decent to solid clay court competitors. Predicting the outcome is close to impossible but the players highlighted previously could offer value at the right price.
It could be a good idea to let the first few rounds finish and then use recent form data to make more informed betting choices. There are very few competitors who offer clear value at this early stage.
What is the TENNIS TIPS UK CLUB?
Subscription service for tennis bettors to receive advisory direct to their inbox. This specifies the match, which bet and the recommended stake. Following these recommended picks has yielded a return in excess of 20% as of early 2024.
Who picks the advised bets?Tennis Tips UK have a team of analysts built over the past decade. Each has shown a proficiency in beating ATP, Challenger or Grand Slam markets consistently.
How much profit have the picks made overall?Full tracking is available publicly via a third party verification platform. However there are multiple club members attaining four figure profit sums each month simply by following the advised bets using their bookmaker and exchange accounts.
How can I get access?Club membership is currently open to applications. Subscribers can expect to receive picks most days that the primary tours are active. These will be match winner or games handicap bets priced at 2.00 or above covering ATP, Challenger or Grand Slam matches.
Do you offer any FREE PICKS?Unfortunately not as the advisory must be kept private for club subscribers so they can easily obtain the quoted prices. Based on feedback from our community of external services we can recommend these free email betting tips for those with smaller bankrolls.
Club P/L Report: Sunday 21st July
$1000 advised backing Halys to beat Berrettini at odds of 4.30 on Betfair Exchange. Outcome was a straight sets win.
-$1000 and failed to beat closing odds #ATPGstaad
Full P/L Report: https://tennis-tips.co.uk/profit-loss-reports/2024/07/21/sunday-21st-july-club-p-l-report/
Club P/L Report: Friday 19th July
$1000 advised backing Martinez to beat Cerundolo at odds of 3.60 on Betfair Exchange. Outcome was a three set win.
+$3470 after commission deduction but failed to beat closing odds #HamburgOpen
Full P/L Report: https://tennis-tips.co.uk/profit-loss-reports/2024/07/19/friday-19th-july-club-p-l-report/
Club P/L Report: Thursday 18 July
$1000 advised backing Boyer to beat Tung-Lin Wu at odds of 2.06 on Betfair Exchange. Outcome was a three set win for the later.
-$1000 but beat closing odds #ChallengerGranby
Full P/L Report: https://tennis-tips.co.uk/tennis-betting-tips/2024/07/18/thursday-18th-july-club-report/
Club P/L Report: Wednesday 17 July
$1000 advised backing Tirante to beat Rublev at odds of 5.80 on Betfair Exchange. Outcome was a three set win.
+$5560 but failed to beat closing odds #SwedishOpen
Full History & Subscription details: http://tennis-tips.co.uk/profit-history/
Club P/L Report: Tuesday 16 July
+4990 and beat closing odds #ChallengerTour
Subscription details: https://tennis-tips.co.uk/profit-history/
Club P/L Report: Tuesday 16th July 2024
-$1000 and failed to beat closing odds #ATPHamburg
Free Pick for Tuesday 16th July
ATP Hamburg R1
A Fils vs J Munar
J Munar (Match Winner)
1 unit @ 2.50 via Betfair Exchange
Full reasoning: https://tennis-tips.co.uk/free-tips/2024/07/15/free-pick-for-tuesday-16th-july-fils-vs-munar-prediction-for-atp-hamburg-r1-betting-tips/
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