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Nakashima v Zverev Tips | US Open R16 Betting Pick for Sunday
Tennis Tips UK advise bets frequently when the primary ATP tour is active. The majority are reserved for club subscribers only. However the final selection each week is published free for everyone via this blog section and across the official social channels. Just enter your email below if you wish to receive free selections direct to your inbox in future. There is an option to unsubscribe at any time.
The focus for Sunday is the US open R16 encounter Nakashima v Zverev. Who will prevail and make it to the next stage? The main story this week at flushing meadows has been the major upsets but do we think that will be the case again with our Nakashima v Zverev tips?
Nakashima v Zverev Tips for Sun 01 Sep
Odds available as of publication that are quoted in our Nakashima v Zverev tips for the US Open R16 encounter. These are bound to change so our team include ‘minimum value level’ to indicate if the bet is still recommended should the price shorten or drift.
Tennis Tips UK have provided ATP betting tips to subscribers since 2013 with results published via a public spreadsheet showing historical yield, units profit and record beating the sharp closing line.
Will Nakashima pull off the upset against the more reliable Zverev?
The most likely outcome is a win for the German Zverev but in terms of where value lies that’s a very different question. It’s the thesis of Tennis Tips UK analysts that Nakashima should be priced closer to 2.75 indicating a win probability of around 36%. Any odds obtainable above this level will offer value and are worth backing.
Zverev is a big server and solid from the baseline. On paper he should progress in this encounter but his opponent Nakashima is likely to present a stubborn challenge. US hard courts are where he’s mainly progressed through the rankings so far in career including a home town title.
Our prediction for this match is a tight encounter where the American challenges more than the market pricing might suggest. Whether he will edge the encounter overall is certainly dubious but worth backing at the value level (2.75+) or above.
When backing underdogs we often receive messages such as ‘it’s obvious Zverev will win!’ and then when he does further criticism of the advisory. When picks like as suggested it’s not that we think the most likely outcome isn’t a win for the favourite it’s simply a case of seeking value.
In this case we all know the most likely winner is Zverev. The odds suggest the probability of this is around 77%. We think this should be lower than consequently there is value in the opposing market. This value based approach allows profit over the long term through tennis betting markets.
Any odds of 2.75 or above offer value and should be backed in our view. If the price should shorten below this level the market should be avoided and bet not placed.
Zverev vs Nakashima Free Tips…
B Nakashima (Match Winner) @ 3.60 – 1 unit stake
Reasoning: Internal modelling indicates Nakashima win probability in excess of 36.40% meaning there is a significant margin of value in the quoted price even after commission deduction.
What is the purpose of club membership?
Most members use the advisory to generate profits via bookmaker and/or exchange accounts. For someone staking £100 per match this has yielded thousands in profit even once the annual membership fee is deducted.
Will bookmakers limit my account(s)?
Most likely, yes. Club bets have a proven track record of value (+ EV) and bookmakers are likely to notice this. Short term you’ll be fine but longer term we suggest using betting exchanges or ‘winners welcome’ bookmakers or brokers. That’s why we always quote and record odds from Betfair Exchange for members as that illustrates profits for those who are limited.
How will it work after joining?
Your membership will be confirmed with a personal welcome email. You’ll get 12 months access from a single payment and there is no auto renewal – we’ll simply ask if you wish to continue after the year has elapsed. You should expect an average of two emails per week detailing the advised selection, match, tournament and odds. Simply login to your betting account and place a wager on the selected market. We only use standard match winner bets, often referred to as the moneyline, so coverage is extensive at virtually all betting portals. Have any questions? Please visit the contact us page. Average response time 24h.
Is club membership limited?
Yes, we allow a maximum of ten members to have an active annual membership at any one time. This is to preserve value and market liquidity. Essentially ensuring it’s practical to obtain the advised odds without them disappearing too quickly.
What bankroll is required?
We suggest £10,000 or more ideally although smaller can work. Most members choose to follow our advice of staking 1% per match. This means it automatically adjusts and scales as the total grows and compounds returns. In the above example; the member would have yielded over £3,000 profit but had to pay the membership fee leaving them with a net profit in excess of £2200. Some members have vastly exceeded this by staking higher amounts but please remember to have a long term focus and ensure capacity for successive losses.
What type of bets should I expect?
Always match winner bets covering men’s professional tennis. This includes ATP events, Challenger and Grand Slams. We specialise in high odds underdogs which have yielded the most considerable profits in extensive back testing. Selections with odds of 10/1 (11.00) are not uncommon. We deliver advisory emails at a consistent time with a minimum of six hours before the scheduled start time to ensure plenty of time to get bets placed.
Who is the club open to?
Everyone with a decent bankroll and a long term outlook. We have members from around the world betting in many different currencies and jurisdictions. Tennis Tips UK are based in the United Kingdom, hence the name, but the club is truly global.
How is profit tracked?
For transparency we operate a public spreadsheet. This shows all key metrics such as units profit, ROI, yield and strike rate. We even monitor the Avg Diff CO % for those statisticians amongst you. In a nutshell this measures the implied value by comparing the advised odds with the sharp closing line. 2% is deducted from all recorded profit figures to simulate exchange commission. Just to clarify bets are only added to the spreadsheet post result confirmation to retain exclusivity of access to paid club members.
For winning bets our team also publish profit reports which feature the original email sent to members for additional tracking and verification purposes. This also includes a rating for that specific prediction which gives an insight into how our strategy is optimised over time.
Who picks the bets for club members?
Tennis Tips UK have grown into a small team over the years. Founded way back in 2013 by an odds compiler at a leading EU bookmaker. Since then joined by a quant and business manager. Each one of us lives and breathes tennis but we like to let our results speak for themselves rather than make outlandish personal claims.
Why don’t you bet on your own picks if they are so good?
We do, frequently. The issue surrounds liquidity and limitations. Club members have access to a wide range of liquidity from global sportsbooks and exchanges. We, as individuals, are far more restricted. Typically though we still stake an average of £10k per week on our selections but unfortunately virtually every bookmaker has long since banned us. We should take it a compliment really as a limitation is an endorsement of the profitability of your bets from an often billion pound institution.
Is there a way to reduce the cost of membership?
The fee is set at a level which allows us to fill membership places. If you are a prospective first time club member enter the promo code ‘TTUK10’ during checkout to reduce the cost. Please note this is a one time discount and not available for returning members.
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