Zverev bounced back from a marathon second round encounter with a routine win versus American rising star Michelsen on Saturday. He faces a much tougher opponent (at least on paper) as we progress through to the R16 on this year’s iteration of the Australian Open. Zverev vs Norrie is currently scheduled for Monday, 22 Jan 2024, 00:00 according to the official draw page. This is subject to change based on the duration of the previous matches. In this deep dive Zverev vs Norrie betting guide we’ll take a look at all the main options available for both the adventurous and conversative punter. There is also an extensive Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ) section for bettors considering this match specifically. The Tennis Tips UK analysts will also conclude where they think the best betting opportunities lie for this encounter.
Match Winner – Zverev vs Norrie
The primary market that will inevitably attract the highest volume of betting activity is the match winner market also known as the moneyline in some cases. There is a clear a favourite but an underdog victory is far from impossible. Take a look at the infographic below, created by the Tennis Tips UK team.
Based on data from sharp bookmakers and exchanges offering Zverev to win priced in within the 1.25-1.30 range and adjusting to factor in the bookmaker edge. Data correct as of publication and subject to change.
The potential return (in this case from $100 wager) is weak for Zverev but far more appealing for his opponent Norrie. Even risk adjusted it’s still the Brit who is more appealing for the match winner market.
Zverev vs Norrie Betting Guide – Punter FAQ
Will Zverev beat Norrie?
As calculated previously; 75% is the estimated probability of this outcome. Whilst that may sound appealing initially the available odds correlate with this at just 1.30 on average as of publication (odds subject to change). In other words there is limited, if any, value backing Zverev long term.
Can Norrie win despite his odds?
Historically players priced in a similar range to Norrie have actually performed well. This is derived from a large data set and the selection in isolation remains very high volatility. Still given the choice we much prefer the risk to reward ratio offered by Norrie versus his opponent Zverev.
Any insight for the Over/Under Total Games Market?
The over +37.5 total games line is currently where bookmakers think the probability lies at roughly 50/50. This could present value at a price close to EVENS (2.00).
So that concludes our Zverev vs Norrie betting guide. To give a quick synopsis of my main takeaways – as with most grand slam matches the probability and odds available line by efficiently so there is limited value. The price for Brit Norrie has settled in the 3.50-3.80 range which is appealing for a modest stake. If you would like to get a more detailed insight into what we have learnt about tennis betting since our portal was founded in 2013 try our FAQ: Is Tennis Betting Profitable?
Robert, Tennis Tips UK Analyst – Ask me a question (I’ll respond within 24 hours)
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On average there will be 2-3 bets advised per week. This will be either a match winner, asian handicap or over/under total games market that’s accessible via all major bookmakers.
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