- ✅ WON @ 2.17 | Shimabukuro to beat Landaluce | ATP Indian Wells
- ✅ WON @ 4.26 | Hanfmann to beat Cerundolo | ATP Santiago
- ❌ LOST @ 5.53 | Moller to beat Cerundolo | ATP Santiago
- ✅ WON @ 2.93 | Pellegrino to beat Comesana | ATP Santiago
- ❌ LOST @ 2.24 | Duckworth to beat Svrcina | ATP Acapulco
| Profit (units) | Yield (%) | Strike Rate (%) | Average Odds (Decimal) | Illustrative Return (£100 staked per pick) |
| +138.20 | 35.40 | 33.80 | 4.99 | £13,820 from backing every selection as of March 2026 |
Tennis Tips UK have now helped multiple long term club members build bankrolls in excess of £1,000,000 or currency equivalent in €/$ through backing picks with a compounding bankroll plan. In other words betting with a fixed percentage of total bankroll per match so that as your total bankroll grows so does the stake. There are challenges as stakes grow such as bookmaker limits and liquidity issues but we are able to provide solutions in most cases such as by using tools like exchanges, winners welcome bookmakers and betting brokers.
Sinner v Baez Betting Prediction – Friday, 19 Jan 2024, 00:00
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From all the action scheduled at the Australian Open on Friday, this is expected to be one of the most predictable outcomes as multiple title winning Jannik Sinner faces a player ranked significantly below him in the form of Argentine Sebastian Baez.
Many recreational tennis punters discount matches like this for the simple reason that they think profit is not attainable. It’s the old conundrum of backing the favourite yields such a pathetic return its not worth your time and the underdogs probability of winning is so minute it takes courage to back with even a small stake.
Fortunately with modern bookmakers and exchanges; bettors are spoilt with a plethora of betting options so even matches like this offer opportunities with enticing risk to reward ratios. Let’s explore these aforementioned options in detail in our Sinner v Baez prediction for the third round encounter.
Match Winner (Match Odds) – Prediction
As alluded to previously, this match has a very firm favourite and as such the match winner market could be best avoided. Jannik Sinner is priced at such low odds (as of publication) that even a large stake would deliver rather substandard returns. On the hand blindly backing large price underdogs in tennis has historically yielded horrendous returns so this could be an even worse trap.
Based on data from sharp bookmakers and exchanges indicating Jannik Sinner priced in the 1.01-1.03 range to win this Australian Open contest. This is adjusted to factor in the bookmaker edge. Data correct as of publication and subject to change.
So based on this data we can conclude that it would be considered a major upset for any outcome other than a win for the Italian. Given the exceptionally poor odds it’s not worth your time and worth exploring other markets including methods to still back Jannik Sinner but through more higher volatility markets that will offer a superior return in the event he does proceed.
Using the same data sources are previously detailed we can see a significant projected profit when backing Sebastian Baez. It could be even higher if using an exchange.
Whilst this may be appealing at first glance our analysts would advise caution given the aforementioned poor performance of ATP underdogs priced in a similar range to Sebastian Baez for this encounter vs Jannik Sinner.
Set Betting – Can Baez win at least a set?
For matches like this where the match winner offering is no unappealing (for reasons previously discussed) it’s natural to progress to the set betting section on the sportsbook to see if there could be value there. Let’s take a deep dive into the data to see if that is the case for Sinner v Baez.
The projections shown on the graphic are based on sharp bookmaker odds correct as of publication. Baez to win a set is priced in the 3.00-3.40 range which is similar to our analyst consensus.
This selection has a far superior long term expected return when contrasted to the match winner market based on our extensive modelling since 2013.
Total Match Games – O/U 28.5 Prediction
Focusing on a statistics market could be wise given the vast difference in level between the two contenders for this encounter specifically. There is a strong bias towards the over selection looking at volume of betting activity historically. This can actually present an opportunity for playing the role of contrarian and backing the under following an unjustified price drift.
There certainly could be value in this market and our prediction providers believe the true probability of the under +28.5 total match games for Sinner v Baez could be modestly higher than suggested by current odds as indicated in the graphic shown on the left. Minimum odds 2.00 (EVENS) could be a good threshold to set but remember to your own research and only use our insight as a foundation for developing your own strategy for profiting from tennis betting.
TENNIS TIPS UK Club Membership – How it Works
Follow @TennisTipsUKSynopsis: A private betting club where members receive regular betting picks direct to their email inbox. This clearly states the match, specific bet and advised stake. There is a ‘best bet’ which is the highest value selection our team has found across all markets. This is exclusively available through the club membership. Club members should expect to receive 1-2 bets per week on average.
Who picks the advised bets?Tennis Tips UK have a team of analysts built over the past decade. Each has shown a proficiency in beating ATP, Challenger or Grand Slam markets consistently. See an example of the email format members receive below. To make the service more practical to follow we send out picks around 6 hours before the scheduled start time on average so it should be feasible to follow regardless of client timezone.
Odds sourced from Pinnacle or Bet365. Match winner (moneyline) markets used so practical to follow with any bookmaker. Those with access to an exchange account are likely to comfortably exceed the recorded profit figures even after commission is deducted so this is highly recommended.How much profit have the picks made overall?
As of late 2025; a £100 bettor has enjoyed profits in excess of £10,000 assuming they backed the quoted price. Please note the image below is updated once annually – see the link below for the most up to date performance figures.
Full tracking is available publicly via a third party verification platform.How do you profit from tennis betting?There is no single ‘one size fits all’ approach. Tennis Tips UK have been fine tuning the selection process since way back in 2013. For a comprehensive insight into our thesis try exploring our tennis betting research articles.
I’m looking for a more hands-on approach, what do you recommend?Some punters prefer to actively select or trade their own markets. The same thesis as before regarding compounding can still apply in this situation but crucially you’ll need to be able to find and back value bets yourself. There are advanced tools that let you identify +EV bets, see where sharp money is betting and apply complex filters to find markets that meet your criteria.
What about responsible gambling?All forms of sports betting, including club picks, need to follow strict responsible gambling principles. The crucial one – never bet with funds that you can’t afford to lose. This means the assigned bankroll needs to be surplus to requirements. Adopting a long term, investment style approach as described previously will put you on the right path but this never replaces the ten golden rules of responsible gambling.
Do I need to be in the United Kingdom (UK) to join the private betting club?No. Tennis Tips UK are based and operated by a team in England, hence the name, however we have clients from all over the world in the club. The membership fee is paid in GBP (£) in most cases however our checkout page has a feature called ‘adaptive pricing’ that should let you pay in your local currency such as USD ($) or Euros (€). It’s also possible to pay in British Pounds and let your payment method convert automatically although this may be subject to a modest FX fee.
Am I locked in or committed long term?No all subscribers can access this customer portal after joining. It allows you to cancel your club subscription without any need for input from Tennis Tips UK. Please note in this situation your membership will be terminated at the end of the current billing period. You’ll continue to receive picks for the period paid for but no further payments will be charged. Membership places in the club are limited and your reserved place will be released for someone else in the situation described above.
How will it work after joining?Your membership will be confirmed with a personal welcome email. You’ll get one month of access per payment. You should expect one or two club exclusive pick(s) per week detailing the advised selection, match, tournament and odds. Simply login to your betting account and place a wager on the selected market. We only use standard match winner bets, often referred to as the moneyline, so coverage is extensive at virtually all betting portals.
Have any questions? Please visit the contact us page. Average response time 24h.Is club membership limited?Yes, we allow a maximum of ten members to have an active membership at any one time. This is to preserve value and market liquidity. Essentially ensuring it’s practical to obtain the advised odds without them disappearing too quickly.
What bankroll is required?We suggest £10,000 or more ideally although smaller can work. Most members choose to follow our advice of staking 1% per match. This means it automatically adjusts and scales as the total grows and compounds returns. Some members have vastly exceeded the stated profits by staking higher amounts but please remember to have a long term focus and ensure capacity for successive losses.
What type of bets should I expect?Always match winner (moneyline) bets covering men’s professional tennis. This includes ATP events, Challenger and Grand Slams. Minimum odds 2.00 but the average is around 5.00. We deliver advisory emails at a consistent time around six hours before the scheduled start time to ensure plenty of time to get bets placed.
Who is the club open to?Everyone with a decent bankroll and a long term outlook. We have members from around the world betting in many different currencies and jurisdictions. Tennis Tips UK are based in the United Kingdom, hence the name, but the club is truly global. Please note while the default currency is pounds – the sign up page also permits dollars or euros. These should be presented as an option or automatically switched based on your location. It’s also possible to pay in other currencies using the exchange rate for that day.
How do you ascertain if a tennis betting market presents value?Since 2013 we have actively built, deployed, maintained and optimised a tennis betting data model. This serves as the foundation of our team’s analysis. We don’t rely on it entirely but it gives a reliable indication as to where the price for a specific player should be. Significant discrepancies between this and actual live market prices across bookmakers and exchanges often flag our attention for further research. The image below shows an old version of our model. We prefer to keep the current iteration private to protect our edge.
Will club bets always win?No. When a specific bet is advised our team are stating there is value in the quoted odds. In other words the true probability of that outcome is higher than the implied figure derived from market odds. Long term backing these bets consistently will deliver considerable profit as our results illustrate. However members should be prepared to lose successive bets frequently as the club focuses on significant underdogs. Sometimes a large percentage of annual returns can come from a single selection.
This is one of the key reasons that the club is now so focused on long term members and making that clear upfront. It was very frustrating to see some join for just a few weeks, lose bets then leave. This benefits nobody. New members should adopt a disciplined bankroll management strategy. The most common is simply staking 1% total bankroll per match. If a handful of consecutive losses would cause terminal bankroll damage then stakes need reducing.How is club performance recorded?For transparency we operate a public spreadsheet. This shows all key metrics such as units profit, ROI, yield and strike rate. We even monitor the Avg Diff CO % for those statisticians amongst you. In a nutshell this measures the implied value by comparing the advised odds with the sharp closing line. Just to clarify bets are only added to the spreadsheet post result confirmation to retain exclusivity of access to paid club members.
For all bets our team also publish profit reports which feature the original email sent to members for additional tracking and verification purposes. This also includes confirmation of the match result and odds proof.Why don’t you bet on your own picks if they are so good?We do, frequently. The issue surrounds liquidity and limitations. Club members have access to a wide range of liquidity from global sportsbooks and exchanges. We, as individuals, are far more restricted. Typically though we still stake an average of £10k per week on our selections but unfortunately virtually every bookmaker has long since banned us. We should take it a compliment really as a limitation is an endorsement of the profitability of your bets from an often billion pound institution.
Why join the club?It offers an investment approach to sports betting that allows disciplined members the ability to gradually grow their bankroll over time. Another key benefit of staking a fixed percentage of bankroll per match is that it scales and crucially compounds returns. Here is an explanation of the concept. This means over time your bankroll can grow exponentially and has resulted in multiple long term club members building pots in excess of £1M. Just remember at this level new challenges present themselves such as trying to get such large stakes accepted or matched but there are solutions out there and of course there is also the option to quit and retire.
