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Sinner v Baez Betting Prediction – Friday, 19 Jan 2024, 00:00
Table of Contents
From all the action scheduled at the Australian Open on Friday, this is expected to be one of the most predictable outcomes as multiple title winning Jannik Sinner faces a player ranked significantly below him in the form of Argentine Sebastian Baez.
Many recreational tennis punters discount matches like this for the simple reason that they think profit is not attainable. It’s the old conundrum of backing the favourite yields such a pathetic return its not worth your time and the underdogs probability of winning is so minute it takes courage to back with even a small stake.
Fortunately with modern bookmakers and exchanges; bettors are spoilt with a plethora of betting options so even matches like this offer opportunities with enticing risk to reward ratios. Let’s explore these aforementioned options in detail in our Sinner v Baez prediction for the third round encounter.
Match Winner (Match Odds) – Prediction
As alluded to previously, this match has a very firm favourite and as such the match winner market could be best avoided. Jannik Sinner is priced at such low odds (as of publication) that even a large stake would deliver rather substandard returns. On the hand blindly backing large price underdogs in tennis has historically yielded horrendous returns so this could be an even worse trap.
Based on data from sharp bookmakers and exchanges indicating Jannik Sinner priced in the 1.01-1.03 range to win this Australian Open contest. This is adjusted to factor in the bookmaker edge. Data correct as of publication and subject to change.
So based on this data we can conclude that it would be considered a major upset for any outcome other than a win for the Italian. Given the exceptionally poor odds it’s not worth your time and worth exploring other markets including methods to still back Jannik Sinner but through more higher volatility markets that will offer a superior return in the event he does proceed.
Using the same data sources are previously detailed we can see a significant projected profit when backing Sebastian Baez. It could be even higher if using an exchange.
Whilst this may be appealing at first glance our analysts would advise caution given the aforementioned poor performance of ATP underdogs priced in a similar range to Sebastian Baez for this encounter vs Jannik Sinner.
Set Betting – Can Baez win at least a set?
For matches like this where the match winner offering is no unappealing (for reasons previously discussed) it’s natural to progress to the set betting section on the sportsbook to see if there could be value there. Let’s take a deep dive into the data to see if that is the case for Sinner v Baez.
The projections shown on the graphic are based on sharp bookmaker odds correct as of publication. Baez to win a set is priced in the 3.00-3.40 range which is similar to our analyst consensus.
This selection has a far superior long term expected return when contrasted to the match winner market based on our extensive modelling since 2013.
Total Match Games – O/U 28.5 Prediction
Focusing on a statistics market could be wise given the vast difference in level between the two contenders for this encounter specifically. There is a strong bias towards the over selection looking at volume of betting activity historically. This can actually present an opportunity for playing the role of contrarian and backing the under following an unjustified price drift.
There certainly could be value in this market and our prediction providers believe the true probability of the under +28.5 total match games for Sinner v Baez could be modestly higher than suggested by current odds as indicated in the graphic shown on the left. Minimum odds 2.00 (EVENS) could be a good threshold to set but remember to your own research and only use our insight as a foundation for developing your own strategy for profiting from tennis betting.
TENNIS TIPS UK Club Membership – How it Works
Follow @TennisTipsUKSynopsis: An email service where members receive regular betting picks direct to their inbox. This clearly states the match, specific bet and advised stake. There is a ‘best bet’ which is the highest value selection our team has found across all markets. This is exclusively available through the club membership. Club members should expect to receive 1-2 bets per week on average.
Who picks the advised bets?Tennis Tips UK have a team of analysts built over the past decade. Each has shown a proficiency in beating ATP, Challenger or Grand Slam markets consistently. See an example of the email format members receive below. To make the service more practical to follow we send out picks twelve hours before the scheduled start time on average so it should be feasible to follow regardless of client timezone.
Odds sourced from Pinnacle or Bet365. Match winner (moneyline) markets used so practical to follow with any bookmaker. Those with access to an exchange account are likely to comfortably exceed the recorded profit figures even after commission is deducted so this is highly recommended.How much profit have the picks made overall?
As of late 2025; a £100 bettor has enjoyed profits in excess of £10,000 assuming they backed the quoted price. Please note the image below is updated once annually – see the link below for the most up to date performance figures.
Full tracking is available publicly via a third party verification platform.How do you profit from tennis betting?There is no single ‘one size fits all’ approach. Tennis Tips UK have been fine tuning the selection process since way back in 2013. For a comprehensive insight into our thesis try exploring our tennis betting research articles.
I’m looking for a more hands-on approach, what do you recommend?Some punters prefer to actively select or trade their own markets. The same thesis as before regarding compounding can still apply in this situation but crucially you’ll need to be able to find and back value bets yourself. There are advanced tools that let you identify +EV bets, see where sharp money is betting and apply complex filters to find markets that meet your criteria.
What about responsible gambling?All forms of sports betting, including club picks, need to follow strict responsible gambling principles. The crucial one – never bet with funds that you can’t afford to lose. This means the assigned bankroll needs to be surplus to requirements. Adopting a long term, investment style approach as described previously will put you on the right path but this never replaces the ten golden rules of responsible gambling.
Why join the club?It offers an investment approach to sports betting that allows disciplined members the ability to gradually grow their bankroll over time. Another key benefit of staking a fixed percentage of bankroll per match is that it scales and crucially compounds returns. Here is an explanation of the concept. This means over time your bankroll can grow exponentially and has resulted in multiple long term club members building pots in excess of £1M. Just remember at this level new challenges present themselves such as trying to get such large stakes accepted or matched but there are solutions out there and of course there is also the option to quit and retire.
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