Alcaraz v Lajovic Value Bets

Profit (units)	Yield (%)	Strike Rate (%)	Average Odds (Decimal)	Illustrative Return (£100 staked per pick)
+126.20	33.80	33.30	5.05	£12,620 from backing every selection as of January 2026

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There are countless instances of commentators and pundits ‘overhyping’ young talent after a handful of consecutive wins or a fluke victory over a legend of the game. However the furore around 19 year old Spaniard Carlos Alcaraz seems to a rare case of when it’s wholly justified.

He faces a competent opponent in the form of Dusan Lajovic for this third round encounter – yet is given an implied win probability of approximately 96.2% (calculated based on odds 1.04). In this article the Tennis Tips UK analysts consider where the value bets may be for Alcaraz v Lajovic.

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Alcaraz: Career Highlights (So Far…)

Carlos Alcaraz is a rising tennis star from Spain who has already achieved many remarkable feats in his young career. Here are some of the highlights of his career so far:

Youngest ATP 250 semifinalist: In 2020, at the age of 17, Alcaraz became the youngest ATP 250 semifinalist in over a decade when he reached the semis of the Rio Open.
First ATP Challenger title: In August 2020, Alcaraz won his first ATP Challenger title in Trieste, Italy. He became the fifth-youngest player to win an ATP Challenger title in the Open Era.
Roland Garros debut: In 2020, Alcaraz made his debut at the French Open and won his first-ever Grand Slam match against Adrian Mannarino in straight sets.
Australian Open debut: In 2021, Alcaraz made his Australian Open debut and won his first-round match against Botic Van de Zandschulp.
First ATP final: In February 2021, Alcaraz reached his first ATP final at the Chile Open, where he defeated top seed and world No. 14 Diego Schwartzman in the quarterfinals.
Top 100 debut: In March 2021, Alcaraz broke into the top 100 of the ATP rankings for the first time. He reached a career-high ranking of No. 38 in October 2021.
ATP Next Gen Finals: Alcaraz qualified for the ATP Next Gen Finals in 2021, where he reached the semifinals before losing to eventual champion Jannik Sinner.

Overall, Alcaraz’s career may still be in its infancy but has already been marked by consistent success, impressive performances against top players, and a bright future ahead.

How does Dusan Lajovic Compare?

Dusan Lajovic and Carlos Alcaraz are both talented tennis players, but they have different levels of experience and skill sets. Lajovic is a seasoned professional who has been on the ATP tour for many years and has achieved some significant results, including reaching the final of the Monte Carlo Masters in 2019. Alcaraz, on the other hand, is a rising star who is still in the early stages of his career but has already shown a lot of promise with his impressive performances and results.

If the two players were to face each other in a match, it is difficult to predict the outcome with certainty, as it would depend on many factors such as their form, fitness, and strategy. Lajovic is a solid all-around player with a good serve and strong groundstrokes, and he is known for his defensive skills and ability to grind out tough matches. Alcaraz, on the other hand, is a young and dynamic player who is very aggressive on the court and has a powerful forehand and good movement.

In general, Lajovic may have the edge in terms of experience and consistency, while Alcaraz has the potential to produce some spectacular shots and surprise his opponents with his fearless approach. However, it should be noted that tennis is a highly unpredictable sport, and anything can happen on any given day.

Dusan Lajovic (Match Winner) @ 20.00+
Over 18.5 (Total Games) @ 2.05+
Over 2.5 (Total Sets) @ 6.00+

Tennis Tips UK operate an exclusive network of tipsters who currently have a Return on Investment (ROI) in excess of 100% for tracked results. £10 stakes have returned over £270 profit so far. This is from fixed flat staking of a single unit per wager and all odds are sourced from a bookmaker that doesn’t limit winners. Find out more about the community.

TENNIS TIPS UK Club Membership – How it Works

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Synopsis: An email service where members receive regular betting picks direct to their inbox. This clearly states the match, specific bet and advised stake. There is a ‘best bet’ which is the highest value selection our team has found across all markets. This is exclusively available through the club membership. Club members should expect to receive 1-2 bets per week on average.

Who picks the advised bets?
Tennis Tips UK have a team of analysts built over the past decade. Each has shown a proficiency in beating ATP, Challenger or Grand Slam markets consistently. See an example of the email format members receive below. To make the service more practical to follow we send out picks twelve hours before the scheduled start time on average so it should be feasible to follow regardless of client timezone.

Odds sourced from Pinnacle or Bet365. Match winner (moneyline) markets used so practical to follow with any bookmaker. Those with access to an exchange account are likely to comfortably exceed the recorded profit figures even after commission is deducted so this is highly recommended.

How much profit have the picks made overall?

As of late 2025; a £100 bettor has enjoyed profits in excess of £10,000 assuming they backed the quoted price. Please note the image below is updated once annually – see the link below for the most up to date performance figures.

Full tracking is available publicly via a third party verification platform.

How do you profit from tennis betting?
There is no single ‘one size fits all’ approach. Tennis Tips UK have been fine tuning the selection process since way back in 2013. For a comprehensive insight into our thesis try exploring our tennis betting research articles.

I’m looking for a more hands-on approach, what do you recommend?
Some punters prefer to actively select or trade their own markets. The same thesis as before regarding compounding can still apply in this situation but crucially you’ll need to be able to find and back value bets yourself. There are advanced tools that let you identify +EV bets, see where sharp money is betting and apply complex filters to find markets that meet your criteria.

What about responsible gambling?
All forms of sports betting, including club picks, need to follow strict responsible gambling principles. The crucial one – never bet with funds that you can’t afford to lose. This means the assigned bankroll needs to be surplus to requirements. Adopting a long term, investment style approach as described previously will put you on the right path but this never replaces the ten golden rules of responsible gambling.

Why join the club?
It offers an investment approach to sports betting that allows disciplined members the ability to gradually grow their bankroll over time. Another key benefit of staking a fixed percentage of bankroll per match is that it scales and crucially compounds returns. Here is an explanation of the concept. This means over time your bankroll can grow exponentially and has resulted in multiple long term club members building pots in excess of £1M. Just remember at this level new challenges present themselves such as trying to get such large stakes accepted or matched but there are solutions out there and of course there is also the option to quit and retire.

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Our objective is to consolidate the highest ROI tennis analysts, tipsters and individuals we have discovered & verified over the past decade into a single subscription service. It’s also to educate those looking to understand tennis betting from a profitable perspective.