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| Profit (units) | Yield (%) | Strike Rate (%) | Average Odds (Decimal) | Illustrative Return (£100 staked per pick) |
| +101.30 | 32.00 | 34.80 | 4.66 | £10,130 from backing every selection as of October 2025 |
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Sinner v Baez Betting Prediction – Friday, 19 Jan 2024, 00:00
Table of Contents
From all the action scheduled at the Australian Open on Friday, this is expected to be one of the most predictable outcomes as multiple title winning Jannik Sinner faces a player ranked significantly below him in the form of Argentine Sebastian Baez.
Many recreational tennis punters discount matches like this for the simple reason that they think profit is not attainable. It’s the old conundrum of backing the favourite yields such a pathetic return its not worth your time and the underdogs probability of winning is so minute it takes courage to back with even a small stake.
Fortunately with modern bookmakers and exchanges; bettors are spoilt with a plethora of betting options so even matches like this offer opportunities with enticing risk to reward ratios. Let’s explore these aforementioned options in detail in our Sinner v Baez prediction for the third round encounter.
Match Winner (Match Odds) – Prediction
As alluded to previously, this match has a very firm favourite and as such the match winner market could be best avoided. Jannik Sinner is priced at such low odds (as of publication) that even a large stake would deliver rather substandard returns. On the hand blindly backing large price underdogs in tennis has historically yielded horrendous returns so this could be an even worse trap.
Based on data from sharp bookmakers and exchanges indicating Jannik Sinner priced in the 1.01-1.03 range to win this Australian Open contest. This is adjusted to factor in the bookmaker edge. Data correct as of publication and subject to change.
So based on this data we can conclude that it would be considered a major upset for any outcome other than a win for the Italian. Given the exceptionally poor odds it’s not worth your time and worth exploring other markets including methods to still back Jannik Sinner but through more higher volatility markets that will offer a superior return in the event he does proceed.
Using the same data sources are previously detailed we can see a significant projected profit when backing Sebastian Baez. It could be even higher if using an exchange.
Whilst this may be appealing at first glance our analysts would advise caution given the aforementioned poor performance of ATP underdogs priced in a similar range to Sebastian Baez for this encounter vs Jannik Sinner.
Set Betting – Can Baez win at least a set?
For matches like this where the match winner offering is no unappealing (for reasons previously discussed) it’s natural to progress to the set betting section on the sportsbook to see if there could be value there. Let’s take a deep dive into the data to see if that is the case for Sinner v Baez.
The projections shown on the graphic are based on sharp bookmaker odds correct as of publication. Baez to win a set is priced in the 3.00-3.40 range which is similar to our analyst consensus.
This selection has a far superior long term expected return when contrasted to the match winner market based on our extensive modelling since 2013.
Total Match Games – O/U 28.5 Prediction
Focusing on a statistics market could be wise given the vast difference in level between the two contenders for this encounter specifically. There is a strong bias towards the over selection looking at volume of betting activity historically. This can actually present an opportunity for playing the role of contrarian and backing the under following an unjustified price drift.
There certainly could be value in this market and our prediction providers believe the true probability of the under +28.5 total match games for Sinner v Baez could be modestly higher than suggested by current odds as indicated in the graphic shown on the left. Minimum odds 2.00 (EVENS) could be a good threshold to set but remember to your own research and only use our insight as a foundation for developing your own strategy for profiting from tennis betting.
TENNIS TIPS UK MEMBERSHIP – How it Works
Follow @TennisTipsUKSynopsis: An email service where members receive daily betting picks direct to their inbox. This clearly states the match, specific bet and advised stake. There is a daily ‘best bet’ which is the highest value selection our team has found for that day. This is exclusively available through the full access plan.
Who picks the advised bets?Tennis Tips UK have a team of analysts built over the past decade. Each has shown a proficiency in beating ATP, Challenger or Grand Slam markets consistently. See an example of the email format members receive below. To make the service more practical to follow we send out picks six hours before the scheduled start time on average so it should be feasible to follow regardless of client timezone.
Odds sourced from Betfair Exchange, Pinnacle or Bet365. Match winner or set betting / handicap are the market types used.How much profit have the picks made overall?Full tracking is available publicly via a third party verification platform. However there are multiple club members attaining four figure profit sums each month simply by following the advised bets using their bookmaker and exchange accounts.
As of late 2025; a £100 bettor has enjoyed profits in excess of £7000 assuming they backed the quoted price using an exchange with 5% commission deducted. In reality most members pay a lower rate and as such have a higher profit attainment.How do you profit from tennis betting?There is no single ‘one size fits all’ approach. Tennis Tips UK have been fine tuning the selection process since way back in 2013. For a comprehensive insight into our thesis try exploring our tennis betting research articles.
