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ATP Challenger Concepcion Betting Preview
The Challenger 50 event hosted in the South American haven of Chile features many rising stars for its 2024 iteration. It should at the very least offer some entertainment value but could also be appealing for the informed tennis bettor.
As always with events like this, the match outcomes are volatile and variance is in full swing. Bookmakers often apply larger than average margins (vs higher level ATP events) for this reason. This makes profiting more challenging but certainly not impossible.
So, without further ado, let’s take a deep dive into this event with the analyst data backed Challenger Concepcion Betting Preview and ultimately answer the question – Who is the smart money backing in Chile? (and who could be a wise pick for someone conversative or at the other end of the spectrum very ambitious)
Fresh from correctly highlighting Casper Ruud as the ‘pick for value seekers’ at ATP Madrid – can the analysts provide further profitable insight for the informationed tennis bettor?
Table of Contents
Tennis Tips UK frequently gather feedback on tipster services from our thousands of subscribers. To be honest most of it focuses on the ever growing list of services to avoid but occasionally there is one that stands out for the right reasons. See the button below for the service that has gained the most positive praise recently.
Court Surface Speed & Conditions
The event is hosted in Concepción which is located in South Chile. The forecast for this week is scattered showers with relatively modest temperate ranging between 15-17 degrees. Given this and the fact the event is played on clay – this event will suit players who prefer slower play vs the fast paced.
The Favourite: Genaro Alberto Olivieri
As of publication, no bookmakers or exchanges are offering Challenger Concepcion Outright winner markets, so Tennis Tips UK makes this assumption based on internal data modelling. To clarify Tennis Tips UK analysts would not expect any dominating favourite for this event but the Argentine Genaro Alberto Olivieri would be one of the frontrunners for tennis bettors looking for a probable winner.
Olivieri should be priced around 3.80-3.90 to win the Challenger Concepcion event outright based on Tennis Tips UK data modelling.
This equates to a win probability of approximately 1/4 which is as close as a favourite that you are likely to find for a volatile event like this with a relatively large field of competitors.
He has a 59.70% career match win rate on clay (Data Source: Tennis Explorer)
The Smart Money: Renzo Olivo
At first glance this may be difficult to understand given his erratic form and the fact he has never progressed further than the first round in two previous attempts in the Challenger Concepcion tournament. However there are significant flows of backing for the Argentine in his first round encounter against a potentially challenging opponent which is often a good indicator.
Renzo Olivo should be priced around 5.30-5.40 to win the Challenger Concepcion event outright based on Tennis Tips UK data modelling.
The first round encounter against Dutra da Silva Daniel could turn into a battle but if he can progress his prospects for the event overall look healthy.
The Long Shot: Cid Subervi Roberto
Relatively unknown apart from the most hardcore tennis fans – the Dominican has highly impressive clay court attainment metrics in 2024 so far and could make a surprise run to the later stages.
Tennis Tips UK data modelling has priced Roberto Cid Subervi around 17.00-18.00 to win the Challenger Concepcion event outright.
Clearly this is a highly volatile selection but could be perfect for those seeking a major payout from a conservative stake.
FAQ: Challenger Concepcion Betting
As this is smaller event not all bookmakers and exchanges will release odds at all. However, it is likely that a few will after the conclusion of the qualification process, which will happen in a few days. The main event runs 22-28 Apr, 2024.
Club membership gives access to 1-2 predictions per week that are exclusively available via that service. These are the markets that offer the best margin of value based on extensive research and data driven insight.
Full information is available for this service on the join now page.
Tennis Tips UK frequently gather feedback on tipster services from thousands of subscribers. To be honest most of it focuses on the ever growing list of services to avoid but occasionally there are some that stand out for the right reasons like these tipsters.
Renzo Olivo is likely to offer the best value in terms of risk to reward ratio. The volatility of this selection will be very high however so stakes should be conservative.
The draw is full of decent to solid clay court competitors. Predicting the outcome is close to impossible but the players highlighted previously could offer value at the right price.
It could be a good idea to let the first few rounds finish and then use recent form data to make more informed betting choices. There are very few competitors who offer clear value at this early stage.
What is the purpose of club membership?
Most members use the advisory to generate profits via bookmaker and/or exchange accounts. For someone staking £100 per match this has yielded thousands in profit even once the annual membership fee is deducted.
Will bookmakers limit my account(s)?
Most likely, yes. Club bets have a proven track record of value (+ EV) and bookmakers are likely to notice this. Short term you’ll be fine but longer term we suggest using betting exchanges or ‘winners welcome’ bookmakers or brokers. That’s why we always quote and record odds from Betfair Exchange for members as that illustrates profits for those who are limited.
How will it work after joining?
Your membership will be confirmed with a personal welcome email. You’ll get 12 months access from a single payment and there is no auto renewal – we’ll simply ask if you wish to continue after the year has elapsed. You should expect an average of two emails per week detailing the advised selection, match, tournament and odds. Simply login to your betting account and place a wager on the selected market. We only use standard match winner bets, often referred to as the moneyline, so coverage is extensive at virtually all betting portals. Have any questions? Please visit the contact us page. Average response time 24h.
Is club membership limited?
Yes, we allow a maximum of ten members to have an active annual membership at any one time. This is to preserve value and market liquidity. Essentially ensuring it’s practical to obtain the advised odds without them disappearing too quickly.
What bankroll is required?
We suggest £10,000 or more ideally although smaller can work. Most members choose to follow our advice of staking 1% per match. This means it automatically adjusts and scales as the total grows and compounds returns. In the above example; the member would have yielded over £3,000 profit but had to pay the membership fee leaving them with a net profit in excess of £2200. Some members have vastly exceeded this by staking higher amounts but please remember to have a long term focus and ensure capacity for successive losses.
What type of bets should I expect?
Always match winner bets covering men’s professional tennis. This includes ATP events, Challenger and Grand Slams. We specialise in high odds underdogs which have yielded the most considerable profits in extensive back testing. Selections with odds of 10/1 (11.00) are not uncommon. We deliver advisory emails at a consistent time with a minimum of six hours before the scheduled start time to ensure plenty of time to get bets placed.
Who is the club open to?
Everyone with a decent bankroll and a long term outlook. We have members from around the world betting in many different currencies and jurisdictions. Tennis Tips UK are based in the United Kingdom, hence the name, but the club is truly global.
How is profit tracked?
For transparency we operate a public spreadsheet. This shows all key metrics such as units profit, ROI, yield and strike rate. We even monitor the Avg Diff CO % for those statisticians amongst you. In a nutshell this measures the implied value by comparing the advised odds with the sharp closing line. 2% is deducted from all recorded profit figures to simulate exchange commission. Just to clarify bets are only added to the spreadsheet post result confirmation to retain exclusivity of access to paid club members.
For winning bets our team also publish profit reports which feature the original email sent to members for additional tracking and verification purposes. This also includes a rating for that specific prediction which gives an insight into how our strategy is optimised over time.
Who picks the bets for club members?
Tennis Tips UK have grown into a small team over the years. Founded way back in 2013 by an odds compiler at a leading EU bookmaker. Since then joined by a quant and business manager. Each one of us lives and breathes tennis but we like to let our results speak for themselves rather than make outlandish personal claims.
Why don’t you bet on your own picks if they are so good?
We do, frequently. The issue surrounds liquidity and limitations. Club members have access to a wide range of liquidity from global sportsbooks and exchanges. We, as individuals, are far more restricted. Typically though we still stake an average of £10k per week on our selections but unfortunately virtually every bookmaker has long since banned us. We should take it a compliment really as a limitation is an endorsement of the profitability of your bets from an often billion pound institution.
Is there a way to reduce the cost of membership?
The fee is set at a level which allows us to fill membership places. If you are a prospective first time club member enter the promo code ‘TTUK10’ during checkout to reduce the cost. Please note this is a one time discount and not available for returning members.
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