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There are countless instances of commentators and pundits ‘overhyping’ young talent after a handful of consecutive wins or a fluke victory over a legend of the game. However the furore around 19 year old Spaniard Carlos Alcaraz seems to a rare case of when it’s wholly justified.

He faces a competent opponent in the form of Dusan Lajovic for this third round encounter – yet is given an implied win probability of approximately 96.2% (calculated based on odds 1.04). In this article the Tennis Tips UK analysts consider where the value bets may be for Alcaraz v Lajovic.

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Alcaraz: Career Highlights (So Far…)

Carlos Alcaraz is a rising tennis star from Spain who has already achieved many remarkable feats in his young career. Here are some of the highlights of his career so far:

  1. Youngest ATP 250 semifinalist: In 2020, at the age of 17, Alcaraz became the youngest ATP 250 semifinalist in over a decade when he reached the semis of the Rio Open.
  2. First ATP Challenger title: In August 2020, Alcaraz won his first ATP Challenger title in Trieste, Italy. He became the fifth-youngest player to win an ATP Challenger title in the Open Era.
  3. Roland Garros debut: In 2020, Alcaraz made his debut at the French Open and won his first-ever Grand Slam match against Adrian Mannarino in straight sets.
  4. Australian Open debut: In 2021, Alcaraz made his Australian Open debut and won his first-round match against Botic Van de Zandschulp.
  5. First ATP final: In February 2021, Alcaraz reached his first ATP final at the Chile Open, where he defeated top seed and world No. 14 Diego Schwartzman in the quarterfinals.
  6. Top 100 debut: In March 2021, Alcaraz broke into the top 100 of the ATP rankings for the first time. He reached a career-high ranking of No. 38 in October 2021.
  7. ATP Next Gen Finals: Alcaraz qualified for the ATP Next Gen Finals in 2021, where he reached the semifinals before losing to eventual champion Jannik Sinner.

Overall, Alcaraz’s career may still be in its infancy but has already been marked by consistent success, impressive performances against top players, and a bright future ahead.

How does Dusan Lajovic Compare?

Dusan Lajovic and Carlos Alcaraz are both talented tennis players, but they have different levels of experience and skill sets. Lajovic is a seasoned professional who has been on the ATP tour for many years and has achieved some significant results, including reaching the final of the Monte Carlo Masters in 2019. Alcaraz, on the other hand, is a rising star who is still in the early stages of his career but has already shown a lot of promise with his impressive performances and results.

If the two players were to face each other in a match, it is difficult to predict the outcome with certainty, as it would depend on many factors such as their form, fitness, and strategy. Lajovic is a solid all-around player with a good serve and strong groundstrokes, and he is known for his defensive skills and ability to grind out tough matches. Alcaraz, on the other hand, is a young and dynamic player who is very aggressive on the court and has a powerful forehand and good movement.

In general, Lajovic may have the edge in terms of experience and consistency, while Alcaraz has the potential to produce some spectacular shots and surprise his opponents with his fearless approach. However, it should be noted that tennis is a highly unpredictable sport, and anything can happen on any given day.

Alcaraz v Lajovic Value Bets

  • Dusan Lajovic (Match Winner) @ 20.00+
  • Over 18.5 (Total Games) @ 2.05+
  • Over 2.5 (Total Sets) @ 6.00+

Tennis Tips UK operate an exclusive network of tipsters who currently have a Return on Investment (ROI) in excess of 100% for tracked results. £10 stakes have returned over £270 profit so far. This is from fixed flat staking of a single unit per wager and all odds are sourced from a bookmaker that doesn’t limit winners. Find out more about the community.

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What is the purpose of club membership?

Most members use the advisory to generate profits via bookmaker and/or exchange accounts. For someone staking £100 per match this has yielded thousands in profit even once the annual membership fee is deducted.

Will bookmakers limit my account(s)?

Most likely, yes. Club bets have a proven track record of value (+ EV) and bookmakers are likely to notice this. Short term you’ll be fine but longer term we suggest using betting exchanges or ‘winners welcome’ bookmakers or brokers. That’s why we always quote and record odds from Betfair Exchange for members as that illustrates profits for those who are limited.

How will it work after joining?

Your membership will be confirmed with a personal welcome email. You’ll get 12 months access from a single payment and there is no auto renewal – we’ll simply ask if you wish to continue after the year has elapsed. You should expect an average of two emails per week detailing the advised selection, match, tournament and odds. Simply login to your betting account and place a wager on the selected market. We only use standard match winner bets, often referred to as the moneyline, so coverage is extensive at virtually all betting portals. Have any questions? Please visit the contact us page. Average response time 24h.

Is club membership limited?

Yes, we allow a maximum of ten members to have an active annual membership at any one time. This is to preserve value and market liquidity. Essentially ensuring it’s practical to obtain the advised odds without them disappearing too quickly.

What bankroll is required?

We suggest £10,000 or more ideally although smaller can work. Most members choose to follow our advice of staking 1% per match. This means it automatically adjusts and scales as the total grows and compounds returns. In the above example; the member would have yielded over £3,000 profit but had to pay the membership fee leaving them with a net profit in excess of £2200. Some members have vastly exceeded this by staking higher amounts but please remember to have a long term focus and ensure capacity for successive losses.

What type of bets should I expect?

Always match winner bets covering men’s professional tennis. This includes ATP events, Challenger and Grand Slams. We specialise in high odds underdogs which have yielded the most considerable profits in extensive back testing. Selections with odds of 10/1 (11.00) are not uncommon. We deliver advisory emails at a consistent time with a minimum of six hours before the scheduled start time to ensure plenty of time to get bets placed.

Who is the club open to?

Everyone with a decent bankroll and a long term outlook. We have members from around the world betting in many different currencies and jurisdictions. Tennis Tips UK are based in the United Kingdom, hence the name, but the club is truly global.

How is profit tracked?

For transparency we operate a public spreadsheet. This shows all key metrics such as units profit, ROI, yield and strike rate. We even monitor the Avg Diff CO % for those statisticians amongst you. In a nutshell this measures the implied value by comparing the advised odds with the sharp closing line. 2% is deducted from all recorded profit figures to simulate exchange commission. Just to clarify bets are only added to the spreadsheet post result confirmation to retain exclusivity of access to paid club members.

For winning bets our team also publish profit reports which feature the original email sent to members for additional tracking and verification purposes. This also includes a rating for that specific prediction which gives an insight into how our strategy is optimised over time.

Who picks the bets for club members?

Tennis Tips UK have grown into a small team over the years. Founded way back in 2013 by an odds compiler at a leading EU bookmaker. Since then joined by a quant and business manager. Each one of us lives and breathes tennis but we like to let our results speak for themselves rather than make outlandish personal claims.

Why don’t you bet on your own picks if they are so good?

We do, frequently. The issue surrounds liquidity and limitations. Club members have access to a wide range of liquidity from global sportsbooks and exchanges. We, as individuals, are far more restricted. Typically though we still stake an average of £10k per week on our selections but unfortunately virtually every bookmaker has long since banned us. We should take it a compliment really as a limitation is an endorsement of the profitability of your bets from an often billion pound institution.

Is there a way to reduce the cost of membership?

The fee is set at a level which allows us to fill membership places. If you are a prospective first time club member enter the promo code ‘TTUK10’ during checkout to reduce the cost. Please note this is a one time discount and not available for returning members.


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