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Home » Free Tips | Tennis Tips UK » Sinner vs Medvedev Prediction – Australian Open 2024 Final – Tennis Betting Preview

Data Driven Insight – Sinner vs Medvedev Prediction

Sinner vs Medvedev Prediction – Australian Open 2024 Final – Tennis Betting Preview

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The 2024 iteration of the Australian Open has delivered in terms of both the quality of tennis and entertainment value. The standout contender has certainly been the Italian Jannik Sinner. He dominated all opponents this week in Melbourne including world number one Novak Djokovic who he beat with relative ease. The question many tennis bettors are asking is – can be finish the run and beat Medvedev in the final or will this prove to be a step too far? Find out with our Sinner vs Medvedev Prediction.

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The Argument for… Jannik Sinner

It’s not hard to find reasons to back Sinner in this final. His form metrics are the stuff of dreams and he’s lost just a single set this week (and that was to multiple time champion down under Novak Djokovic). Needless to say Medvedev is going to face an uphill battle if he wants to lift the trophy. However a word of caution for those thinking a win for the favourite is merely a formality – Medvedev presents a unique challenge with tour leading defensive skills. Over five sets he’s incredibly tough to beat even from a winning position. This is worth bearing in mind before backing Sinner at such a short price (1.30-1.40)

Sinner form graphic for 2024 (8-0 matches won) by Tennis Tips UK

Jannik Sinner has played 8 matches so far this year. He’s won all of them including against multiple challenging opponents. Remarkably he’s only lost a single set over this streak so it’s hard to imagine better form metrics going into a final than the Italian has currently amassed.

Medvedev presents a unique challenge as explored previously. Just because Sinner has breezed past quality opposition does not mean that will be the case in this final.

The Argument for… Daniil Medvedev

Medvedev will test his opponent – that’s virtually guaranteed in the five set format. It will also be a phycological test for the youngster Sinner if the prospect of winning a maiden Grand Slam becomes a more realistic prospect as the match reaches its later stages.

Medvedev vs Sinner head to head record h2h updated January 2024

The match winner odds available for Medvedev (3.00-3.50) as of publication suggest the chance him winning this Australian Open 2024 final is roughly 30%.

The question is though what is the true probability. The Pinnacle closing line will almost certainly get this correct but there is a lot of movement probable from now until then. Watch as the odds shorten or drift closer to the match start time for insight.

He leads the head to head (h2h) 6-3 from previous encounters versus Sinner. However has lost their two most recent encounters.

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Medvedev vs Sinner Pick – Tennis Betting FAQ

Will Sinner beat Medvedev?

As calculated previously; 70% is the estimated probability of Sinner winning the Australian Open final.

Can Medvedev win despite his odds?

The price range of the Italian (3.00-3.50) suggest he is a considerable underdog but certainly has a chance. He could certainly find a path to victory by grinding down his opponent. His total court time could be a problem though in terms of fatigue whereas Sinner is very fresh after minimal physicality required to progress to this final.

What is your main Medvedev vs Sinner pick for this Australian Open final?

Tennis Tips UK reserve their best value selections for premium subscribers – this is where our analysts go from general speculation about form and past attainment and instead focus on data modelling, probability and the point at which odds present value. This is how to profit long term from tennis betting. The verified results for this paid service illustrate this in practice.

Jannik Sinner is a justified favourite but in terms of specific pricing there could be some marginal value available ahead of this final for the shrewd tennis punter. Medvedev is likely to fight and push the Italian all the way but as always focus on getting a value price not a general outcome view.

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How to profit from Medvedev vs Sinner

Always focus on value. Bookmakers calculate odds based on data modelling and then let the market dictate movements. The objective of a sharp bettor is to find inefficiencies. In other words a disconnect from the implied probability (derived from odds) and the true outcome probability. Our team explore this in more detail in our tennis betting guide.

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