Data Driven Insight – Sinner vs Medvedev Prediction
The 2024 iteration of the Australian Open has delivered in terms of both the quality of tennis and entertainment value. The standout contender has certainly been the Italian Jannik Sinner. He dominated all opponents this week in Melbourne including world number one Novak Djokovic who he beat with relative ease. The question many tennis bettors are asking is – can be finish the run and beat Medvedev in the final or will this prove to be a step too far? Find out with our Sinner vs Medvedev Prediction.
2-3 bets per week with a historical yield in excess of 36.50% – View Full History
The Argument for… Jannik Sinner
It’s not hard to find reasons to back Sinner in this final. His form metrics are the stuff of dreams and he’s lost just a single set this week (and that was to multiple time champion down under Novak Djokovic). Needless to say Medvedev is going to face an uphill battle if he wants to lift the trophy. However a word of caution for those thinking a win for the favourite is merely a formality – Medvedev presents a unique challenge with tour leading defensive skills. Over five sets he’s incredibly tough to beat even from a winning position. This is worth bearing in mind before backing Sinner at such a short price (1.30-1.40)
Jannik Sinner has played 8 matches so far this year. He’s won all of them including against multiple challenging opponents. Remarkably he’s only lost a single set over this streak so it’s hard to imagine better form metrics going into a final than the Italian has currently amassed.
Medvedev presents a unique challenge as explored previously. Just because Sinner has breezed past quality opposition does not mean that will be the case in this final.
The Argument for… Daniil Medvedev
Medvedev will test his opponent – that’s virtually guaranteed in the five set format. It will also be a phycological test for the youngster Sinner if the prospect of winning a maiden Grand Slam becomes a more realistic prospect as the match reaches its later stages.
The match winner odds available for Medvedev (3.00-3.50) as of publication suggest the chance him winning this Australian Open 2024 final is roughly 30%.
The question is though what is the true probability. The Pinnacle closing line will almost certainly get this correct but there is a lot of movement probable from now until then. Watch as the odds shorten or drift closer to the match start time for insight.
He leads the head to head (h2h) 6-3 from previous encounters versus Sinner. However has lost their two most recent encounters.
Our Main Pick – LOCKED
Subscribe to get access to the Medvedev vs Sinner Pick
Get access to this tip and other premium selections when you subscribe today. You’ll be able to access all selections via this page and also through an email notification. The focus here is purely on value. There is a price (odds) at which every selection offers value based on what it suggests versus true outcome probability. When this value point is below current bookmaker odds we advise this to members.
On average there will be 2-3 bets advised per week. This will be either a match winner, asian handicap or over/under total games market that’s accessible via all major bookmakers.
The selections are picked by tipsters (many private individuals who have never offered a public service) that we have discovered and verified since our portal was founded back in 2013. All prediction providers have delivered a sustained ROI in excess of 10%. Following multiple requests we have started to publicly track results via a spreadsheet that everyone can view. This started in January 2024 and will continue for the foreseeable future to increase transparency. We record all odds from Pinnacle for simplicity and the fact they welcome winners but our selections can be followed with any bookmaker or exchange account and results replicated or even exceeded.
We use a simple 1% per selection bankroll management system. The odds quoted are available at multiple bookmakers and exchanges so it’s practical to replicate returns. All advisory is published at least 24 hours before the scheduled start time.
As calculated previously; 70% is the estimated probability of Sinner winning the Australian Open final.
Can Medvedev win despite his odds?
The price range of the Italian (3.00-3.50) suggest he is a considerable underdog but certainly has a chance. He could certainly find a path to victory by grinding down his opponent. His total court time could be a problem though in terms of fatigue whereas Sinner is very fresh after minimal physicality required to progress to this final.
What is your main Medvedev vs Sinner pick for this Australian Open final?
Tennis Tips UK reserve their best value selections for premium subscribers – this is where our analysts go from general speculation about form and past attainment and instead focus on data modelling, probability and the point at which odds present value. This is how to profit long term from tennis betting. The verified results for this paid service illustrate this in practice.
Jannik Sinner is a justified favourite but in terms of specific pricing there could be some marginal value available ahead of this final for the shrewd tennis punter. Medvedev is likely to fight and push the Italian all the way but as always focus on getting a value price not a general outcome view.
Robert, Tennis Tips UK Analyst – Ask me a question (I’ll respond within 24 hours)
How to profit from Medvedev vs Sinner
Always focus on value. Bookmakers calculate odds based on data modelling and then let the market dictate movements. The objective of a sharp bettor is to find inefficiencies. In other words a disconnect from the implied probability (derived from odds) and the true outcome probability. Our team explore this in more detail in our tennis betting guide.
To interpret prices alongside outcomes, read our research on closing line value. It explains what a market benchmark can show and where it can mislead.
Get our next picks before the match.Around two researched tennis picks per week by email.
Options vary by country, currency and device. Check Stripe at checkout.
Payment & membership details
Credit and debit cards are accepted through Stripe. PayPal, Apple Pay and Link are also offered where available. Stripe displays the payment options available for your device and country at checkout.
£49.99/month is the base membership price. Stripe may show a local-currency price; check the first payment and renewal amount before subscribing.
All picks and member emails are delivered in English. International members are welcome where betting is legal.
You manage your membership through Stripe and can cancel whenever you choose, without contacting us for approval. Cancellation and refunds are separate.
Subscribe free and confirm your email to qualify for one upcoming pre-match tennis betting pick. Our team will send it manually when the next club selection is available.
You’ll also receive published club results and an exclusive discount code by email after confirmation, if you decide to become a full paid club member. Membership is optional.
CLUB PICK🔒 LOCKED
Tournament
Locked until sent by email
Match
Locked until sent by email
Advised bet
Locked until sent by email
Tap or click to see how to unlock your free pick.
Enter your email in the form and confirm your subscription. Your one free pick will be emailed manually when available.
Check your inbox to confirm. Missing the email? Check Spam, Junk or Promotions and add the sender to your contacts. One free pick per eligible new confirmed subscriber. 18+. Betting involves risk. Unsubscribe at any time.Privacy policy.
